Late Mail: Best sports bets for this weekend with Ladbrokes
Punters would normally be cursing the fact the team they backed lost badly, but those who put money on the Heat to win on Tuesday night came away happy at Ladbrokes.
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IT may have been a tough start to the Big Bash League for the Brisbane Heat at Gabba on Tuesday night, but it was the complete opposite for Ladbrokes punters.
The BBL Head-to-Head Early Payout means that if you place a head-to-head and your team makes 55-plus runs or takes three-plus wickets in the first six overs of the match you will get paid out as a winner.
The Heat did exactly that against the Thunder, taking three wickets in the Power Play, but it was the Thunder that went on to win the game, which meant that Ladbrokes paid out both sides as the winners.
Brisbane will be in action again against the Melbourne Stars on Friday and the market cannot separate the two sides, with $1.91 available for both the Heat and the Stars.
The Heat have had the edge over the Stars in recent seasons, winning six of the past seven matches played between the two sides.
Chris Lynn is expected to be the key man for the Heat and he is on top of the Brisbane Heat Top Runscorer market at $3 from Tom Banton ($4), Max Bryant ($4.50), Matthew Renshaw ($6) and Ben Cutting ($8).
The Melbourne Stars Top Runscorer market is much more competitive, with Marcus Stoinis ($3.75) a narrow favourite from BBL veteran Ben Dunk ($4), Glenn Maxwell ($4.50), Peter Handscomb ($5) and Nick Larkin ($5.50).
Boxing Day Test
For all Australia’s dominance in the opening Test Match against New Zealand, there are some key things for a punter to ponder before rushing into the $1.30 Ladbrokes has about the host nation winning the Boxing Day Test.
Australia seems to have a better hold on how the pink ball works and Melbourne is not a Day/Night Test.
Man of the Match in Perth, Mitchell Starc does not have the same impact with the red ball as he does with the pink (or white) and, like the second innings in that match, there will be no Josh Hazelwood.
New Zealand’s bowling attack should be strengthened with the return of Trent Boult, if the world’s number 11 ranked Test bowler can get through a two-day game against a Victorian XI.
New Zealand’s batsman will have to improve, but this is officially the no.2 ranked Test side in the world and while they have generally struggled when across this side of the Tasman, they should be blown off the park.
Steve Smith was below his lofty standards in limited opportunities against Pakistan and did not reach 50 in either of his innings in Perth but the MCG is a ground where his statistics point you in the direction of a return to form.
He’s batted 11 times in six Boxing Day Tests, been not out in four of those and scored 816 runs at an average of 136 with four centuries and two half centuries and highest score of 192.
Smith is due a dominant home innings and given his recent ‘failures’, the odds of him top scoring or earning Man of the Match honors are somewhat inflated.
His record suggests taking him for either would be better value than the Aussies straight out.
NBL
The pressure was on the Adelaide 36ers last weekend and they delivered in spades.
A pair of narrow wins over the South East Melbourne Phoenix and the New Zealand Breakers last week saw the 36ers move into the top four on the NBL ladder and they are clear favourites to continue their winning ways.
Adelaide are $1.28 to beat the Illawarra Hawks on Friday and that is easily the shortest price that they have been with Ladbrokes this season.
The other short-price favourite in the NBL this weekend are the Sydney Kings and they are $1.38 favourites to account for the Brisbane Bullets on Saturday.
Recent history makes it very tough to bet against the in-form Kings.
The Kings have won their past nine matches against the Bullets and Brisbane haven’t beaten their rivals since 2017.
Throw in the fact that Sydney have won six of their past eight games as away favourites and it is no surprise that they have already been included in plenty of multis this week.
Saturday’s other clash between the Perth Wildcats and Melbourne United is set to be a far more competitive affair and is likely to be an early play-offs preview.
A-League
The Melbourne Derby headlines this weekend’s action in the A-League and Melbourne City are clear favourites to come away with the three points.
The past three games between these two sides have finished as draws, including a dismal 0-0 draw earlier this season, and the $3.40 available with Ladbrokes for another stalemate does represent value.
Melbourne Victory have won only one of their past seven matches in the A-League and they could start at even longer odds than the $3.50 currently available.
Adelaide United are back from the bye and they look like the safest bet of the weekend.
The Reds have won five of their past six matches and they take on a Central Coast Mariners that has won only one of their past five fixtures.
Adelaide have also won five of their past seven matches as away favourites and they have been one of the best-backed sides this weekend.
Perth Glory ($1.62) have also been well-supported to beat the Newcastle Jets ($4.50), while tonight’s clash between Western Sydney ($2.35) and Western United ($2.70) shapes as a tight affair.
NFL
For an Australian based fan of American football, this is arguably the most wonderful time of the year.
It’s a three-day extravaganza of NFL where you have the rare occurrence of multiple games on a lazy Sunday.
The Sunday slate could be anything.
One could comfortably mount a case for all three of the betting outsiders and there is plenty of value to be found with Ladbrokes.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston last week became the first QB in NFL history to throw for 450-plus yards in consecutive weeks and he has a habit of playing his best football in December.
His top two receivers, recently named Pro-Bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, will likely both miss with hamstring injuries but the Bucs have somehow found a way recently.
They play division rival Houston who, while a likely play-off participant, have been up and down of late.
They were outclassed by the lowly Broncos a fortnight ago, before edging past the Titans last week.
Tampa Bay ($2.40) is worth a flyer if you multi it up for a small investment with fellow Sunday outsiders the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams.
The Bills ($3.35) have won 4 matches against the Patriots since 2000, but this is the best Bills roster in that time and the Patriots haven’t quite looked like the Patriots lately.
It’s not easy for a team to win in Foxborough, but Buffalo has done a bit of the unexpected this season.
The Rams have too. They were expected to be a major contender after losing last season’s Super Bowl, but things have gone awry.
Last week’s meltdown against the Cowboys aside, the Rams had produced their best football of the season in the past month or so.
The 49ers have only lost three games for the season, all on the final plays of the game, but injuries have opened a door for a team like Los Angeles ($3.25) to claim a big scalp.
Best weekend bets
Racing – Don’t Waiver To Win Grand Prix Stakes @ $6
Don’t Waiver hasn’t missed the placings in his last seven race starts and he is great value to return to winning form in the Grand Prix Stakes. He found the line nicely to finish second behind Smart Meteor in The Eagle Way Handicap and the step-up in trip does look ideal for him.
EPL – Southampton To Beat Aston Villa @ $2.88
Aston Villa have won only one of their past eight matches and they are under the odds for this clash with Southampton. Southampton were a touch unlucky to lose to West Ham last weekend and they are a side that is capable of winning on the road. There isn’t as much between these two sides as the current market suggests.
A-League – Western United To Beat Western Sydney @ $2.70
The Western Sydney Wanderers are a club in crisis and it is a surprise that they are favourites for this clash with Western United. The Wanderers have lost five games on the trot and they face a Western United side that has claimed back-to-back wins over the Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar. Western United have also won three of their four games on the road.
NBL – Perth Wildcats To Cover The Line (-3.5 Points) Against Melbourne United @ $1.90
The Perth Wildcats have won four games on the trot and they should be able to continue their winning ways against Melbourne United. Perth have won their past four matches against Melbourne United and they have covered the line in ten of their past 15 matches as home favourites for a clear profit.
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