The NRL finals are up for grabs; Matthew Johns looks at three crunch games for round 24

MATTHEW JOHNS: 2016 is shaping up as one of the most unpredictable finals series we have seen. Let’s see what’s at stake in three crucial matches this weekend.

This year is shaping up as one of the most unpredictable finals series we have seen in many seasons.

Momentum is shifting from team to team. Some teams are suddenly finding their best form, while others are hitting a worrying hurdle.

Like so many defending premiers, have the Cowboys run out of gas? Can a team outside the top four win it?

This weekend three games are crucial in deciding who grabs those last available spots in the eight. Let’s look at those matches, check what is at stake, and who wins.

PANTHERS v TIGERS (Friday, 7.50pm)

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

The Tigers must win this game to make the play-offs. Their points differential is below their fellow finals competitors and with the Warriors away, and Canberra at home to end their season, a loss will require too many scenarios to fall their way.

For the Panthers, a win will almost certainly see them playing finals football, and with their two remaining games being the Titans and Manly, Penrith will set their eyes on avoiding a week one elimination finals match in Brisbane or Townsville.

FORM

Both sides are playing good football. The Tigers were one point away last weekend from winning four in a row. I thought the Tigers’ opening 20 minutes came back to bite them last weekend. They had a mile of possession and although they led 8-0, they blew a lot of opportunities as a result of playing too sideways.

Nonetheless, given there was no Luke Brooks and they lost James Tedesco at a vital time in the second half, it was a very solid performance.

The Panthers appear to be in great form. I say “appear” because their last two wins, while significant, were against struggling teams.

Penrith hammered the Roosters 38-18, but the Roosters were dreadful and without Mitchell Pearce. Then last weekend after being locked up 6-6 with the Knights, they blew Newcastle away in the second half by scoring 36 unanswered points. Knights coach Nathan Brown admitted his side “gave up”.

Penrith were scoring at will in that second half, and the ease of the victory is not the ideal preparation for their most important game of the year.

BATTLE OF THE YOUNG HALVES

The Tigers welcome back Luke Brooks, who re-forms his partnership with the NRL’s most in-form playmaker Mitchell Moses. Moses continues to get better as the season goes on.

Brooks and Moses must fire if the Tigers are to win.

Their clash with Penrith’s young guns Nathan Cleary and Bryce Cartwright will be the feature of this match.

Like Moses, Cleary’s improvement rate has been significant since his mid-season debut, and his temperament and maturity belies his age and inexperience.

Cartwright is a star. A star, it must be said, who lost the balance in his game for a short while, trying to finesse the ball too much, forcing plays, and putting his team under pressure.

But his past two games have seen him refocus, and in that the Panthers have found their best football.

WHO WINS?

The loss of Tedesco is huge for the Tigers and puts a lot of creative pressure on Moses, and particularly Brooks who returns first-up from injury.

I see the young Panthers pack, at the very least, holding the Tigers forwards and from there, the creative men of Cleary, Cartwright and Matt Moylan to get Penrith home.

Penrith to win.

TITANS v KNIGHTS (Saturday, 3pm)

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

The Titans will have a finals spot right at their fingertips with a win here. A victory will mean they probably only need to win one of their last two, against the Panthers and Cowboys, to play September football.

HAYNE PLANE IN NEWCASTLE

I expect a big crowd at Hunter Stadium as the football loving Novocastrians turn out to catch Jarryd Hayne in action. Given how long Hayne has had out of the game, the quality of his football has been quite astounding.

What’s interesting is that while Hayne is primarily a runner of the football, his greatest contributions have been in pass selection and kicking.

I’d love to see Neil Henry give Jarryd some significant time at fullback this weekend to try and ignite that running game.

WHAT DECIDES THIS?

The bottom line is the Titans’ attitude decides the contest. If the same Gold Coast that has turned up all season gets off the plane at Newcastle, they win.

However, if the Gold Coast see this as a chance to take a week off, they will be in trouble. It’s hard to imagine Neil Henry letting complacency ruin this outstanding season.

Titans victory.

COWBOYS v WARRIORS (Saturday, 7.30pm)

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

The Warriors have a poor points differential so to be assured of playing finals football they need to win their last three regular season matches. A loss here makes finals football unlikely.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, need to win for a variety of reasons; for their own confidence, to be absolutely assured of a finals spot and to help ensure a home final in week one.

THURSTON V RUSHING DEFENCE

The Wests Tigers provided the defensive blueprint which last Sunday the Roosters followed with great success — rush up on Thurston and take away his game time.

Both the Tigers and Roosters allowed the Cowboys numbers out wide for the want of racing up on JT, and not allowing him the ability to run, or the time to find the perfect pass.

Expect the Warriors to do exactly the same. It will be interesting to see what coach Paul Green and Thurston do to alter their game.

The Cowboys need to adjust their attack and the attacking shapes around Thurston.

WHAT ULTIMATELY DECIDES THIS?

The Cowboys firing vs. the Warriors’ attitude. I expect the Cowboys to get back to near their best football, so the question is, which Warriors will turn up?

If the Warriors’ attitude is right and play with power and aggression, they are capable of beating the very best. But last week’s costly loss to Souths, with everything to play for, has me a little wary of trusting the Aucklanders.

Cowboys to win

Originally published as The NRL finals are up for grabs; Matthew Johns looks at three crunch games for round 24