NRL Round 21 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
EXTRA time has been poison lately for the Warriors who have lost three of their past four outings in golden point.
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Check out all the best stats, what’s been backed and where the money is going in order to find a winner.
Warriors v Penrith, Saturday, 3pm, Mt Smart Stadium
OLD STAMPING GROUND
This is the first clash between these teams at Mt Smart Stadium since Round 16, 2014, with the Warriors winning 30-20.
Each team has won eight games each at the venue, with Penrith winning two of the past three, and three of the past five matches at Mt Smart Stadium.
NAIL-BITER
The Warriors have lost three of their past four matches, with all three losses coming in golden point extra time.
TRAILING AT THE BREAK
The Panthers have only led at halftime on five occasions this season, winning four of the five.
COACHING BLUES
Andrew McFadden has lost his past three matches as coach against Penrith, winning just one of four matches. All three losses have been by 12 points or more.
Betting summary: The Warriors were seeing early support, however punters are swinging back towards the Panthers
Parramatta v Wests Tigers, Saturday, 5.30pm, ANZ Stadium
TURNING TABLES
During the mid-2000s, this matchup was dominated by the Eels winning eight straight games with four by 28 points or more. Since 2009 the Tigers have managed to turn things around by winning nine of the 14 matches although the Eels have won the past two.
Eight of the 14 matches have been decided by 11 points or more.
TRAVEL SICKNESS
Parramatta has now lost three of their past four matches, all of which have come away from home.
FAMILIAR SURROUNDINGS
This will be Wests Tigers’ fourth straight match at ANZ Stadium and their fifth in six matches so they should be fairly familiar with the ground. They have won three of their previous four at ANZ.
TRY-SCORING MACHINE
Kevin Naiqama has scored four tries in five games against the Eels.
To Score a Try — $2
To Score 2+ Tries — $7
1st Try Scorer — $11
Betting summary: Parramatta are heavily backed to beat the Tigers.
North Queensland v Melbourne, Saturday, 7.30pm, 1300Smiles Stadium
BLOW OUT OR CLOSE CALL?
Seven of the 11 games between these two teams since 2010 have been decided by 20 points or more, while a further three have been decided by four points or less.
HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE
Since 2014 the Cowboys have won 30 of 35 home games (85.7 per cent), the best home record of any team in that period. In those 35 games they have averaged almost 30 points scored per game.
DISCIPLINED
Melbourne has the best defence in the NRL, ranked first in points conceded (11.6 per game), tries conceded (2), linebreaks conceded (2.2) and least missed tackles (19.2). They also have the best completion rate (81.3%), make the least errors in the NRL (8.7 per game) and concede the equal third least penalties (6.6).
MISSING LINK
Since 2005 the Cowboys have won just 13 of 44 matches with Johnathan Thurston missing (29.5%). In these matches the Cowboys score 6.5 points less and concede a tick over 7 points more per game.
Betting summary: Punters think Melbourne will be too strong for the Cowboys with Johnathan Thurston out.
South Sydney v Canberra, Sunday 2pm, ANZ Stadium
FOUR A PIECE
This will be the ninth clash between these two sides at ANZ Stadium and first since 2014. So far both teams have won four matches apiece.
HIGH SCORING
Over the past 10 seasons (2007-16) this match-up has had on average 50 total points scored in it — the highest average total of any match-up in this period.
DEJA VU
South Sydney has won just two of eight matches at ANZ Stadium this season and will be trying to avoid losing four straight at the venue for the first time since 2014.
TOUGH DEFENCE
Canberra have had to do a lot of tackling on their own line. Their opponents are averaging 31.4 tackles inside Canberra’s 20, the most in the competition.
Betting summary: Canberra were the punters’ pick in early betting, however money has shifted towards South Sydney.
Manly v Newcastle, Sunday 4pm, Brookvale Oval
TOTAL DOMINATION
Away from Newcastle, the Sea Eagles have totally dominated this clash, winning nine straight from 2007 and 20 of 25 overall. At Brookvale Manly has won 14 of 16 games, with the Knights’ only two wins coming in 1998 and 2006.
UNWANTED HISTORY
With just one win this season, the Knights are in danger of having the fewest wins of any team in the NRL era, which currently stands at 3, set by South Sydney in 2003 and 2006 (the Roosters have also currently won just three matches this season).
TOUGH NUT TO CRACK
Manly averages just 9.4 errors per game this season, the second best of any team. As a result they have been able to control the ball well coming out of their own end only failing to complete 2.2 sets per game inside their own half which is the second best in the league.
TRY TIME
Jorge Taufua needs one more try to score 10 in a single season for the fifth season in a row. He has seven tries in five matches against the Knights, his best try-scoring record against any team, which includes one of three career hat-tricks in 2013.
To Score a Try — $1.40
To score 2+ Tries — $2.25
1st Try Scorer — $5
Betting summary: All the support has been for Newcastle to cause an upset.
Gold Coast v Cronulla, Monday 7pm, Cbus Super Stadium
PLAYING TO THE FINAL WHISTLE
In five of the past six meetings the opening try has been scored after the 15-minute mark, their only exception coming in their Round 6 clash this season when Ben Barba crossed after five minutes. Time of First Try Awarded = $2.15 08:00 mins or later/no try
MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS
The Sharks have traditionally struggled on Monday night’s winning just 14 of 38 matches, however they have won their past four including two away from Shark Park.
The Titans are also on somewhat of a winning streak of their own on Monday Nights, winning their past three matches (all at Robina), including both of their MNF matches this season.
TWENTY TWENTY
The Titans have won three of their past four matches at Robina and have scored over 20 points in each of those three. If they score over 20 points in this match it will be just the third time they have scored over 20 points in five straight home matches (2009-2010 & 2015-16) and the first time in a single season.
CHASING HISTORY
The Sharks are looking to become just the third team in Premiership history to win 16 straight matches in a season behind the Bulldogs (17 in 2002) and the Roosters (19 in 1975).
Betting summary: Gold Coast are seeing the support here, however Cronulla are popular with Multi players.
Originally published as NRL Round 21 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
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