NRL Round 20 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
THE chances of Canberra’s clash with the Warriors being low scoring would appear remote with the past six matches having seen an average of just under 53 total points scored.
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Check out all the best stats, what’s been backed and where the money is going in order to find a winner.
Canberra v Warriors, Saturday 3pm, GIO Stadium
THE DROUGHT IS OVER
The Raiders broke a five-game losing streak against the Warriors when they embarrassed them on their own turf with a 38-12 win in Taranaki earlier in the year.
POINTS FEST
The chances of this match being low scoring would appear remote with the past six matches having on average just less than 53 total points scored.
FAST STARTERS
The Warriors have led going into the break on five occasions, turning four of those five into wins.
A MENTAL EDGE
Ricky Stuart has struggled up against Andrew McFadden in recent times only managing one win in five attempts. McFadden coached sides have kept Sticky’s sides to 12 points or less in three of the five matches.
Betting summary: Punters are backing the Warriors to cause an upset.
Gold Coast v Parramatta, Saturday 5.30pm, Cbus Super Stadium
NO TIME TO WASTE
The Titans have traditionally been fast starters against the Eels, scoring the first try in 11 of their 14 matches, including in each of the past seven.
In eight of the past nine matches the opening try has been scored inside 10 minutes.
SUNSHINE STATE BLUES
The Eels have lost their past four matches played in Queensland, with all four losses by 10 points or more.
PILING ON THE POINTS
All eight wins this season have come when the Titans have scored more than 22 points. All nine losses have come when Gold Coast has scored 22 points or less.
A FLYING START
Bevan French has had an outstanding start to his NRL career, scoring nine tries in just six matches, including seven tries in his past four matches.
To Score a Try — $1.70
To Score 2+ Tries — $3.75
1st Try Scorer — $7
Betting summary: Gold Coast are popular in early betting.
Melbourne v Roosters, Saturday 7.30pm, AAMI Park
HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE
The Storm have won eight of their past 10 meetings against the Roosters in Melbourne, with six of those wins by 14 points or more.
HISTORICALLY POOR RUN
This is the first time since 1966 (when they went winless throughout the season) the Roosters have lost 14 of their first 17 games.
THE BEST OF THE BEST
Melbourne has the best defence in the NRL, ranked first in points conceded (11.6 per game), tries conceded (2), linebreaks conceded (2.1) and least missed tackles (18.6).
They are yet to concede over 20 points in a match.
HORSES FOR COURSES
Daniel Tupou has scored three tries in his past three games and four tries in his past five matches against the Storm.
To Score a Try — $2.40
Betting summary: Melbourne are extremely popular with multi players.
Cronulla v Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, Southern Cross Group Stadium
KNIGHTS IN SHINING ARMOUR
The Knights have won four of their past five matches at Shark Park, but were last start losers in Rd 6 last season. The Sharks have not won back to back home matches against the Knights since 2001-02.
PERFECT 10 COMING UP
Cronulla is currently undefeated at home this season, winning nine from nine. They have won 10 or more straight matches at Shark Park just three times in their history, the most recent of which came in 1995-96 when they won 11 straight.
SLOW STARTS
Newcastle has conceded the opening try in 14 of its 17 matches this season.
TRYSCORING MACHINE
Sosaia Feki has scored 10 tries in his past seven matches, including three doubles and one hat-trick against the Knights in round 10.
He has scored six tries in his past five matches at Shark Park, including scoring at least once in each of his past three there.
Betting summary: Punters are happy to jump on the odds about Newcastle, however Cronulla are seeing support from multi players.
St George Illawarra v Wests Tigers, Sunday 4pm, ANZ Stadium
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The overall head to head between these two sides is close with the Dragons having a slight 17-14 advantage and in the past five years the 11 meetings have been split five wins to the Tigers and six to the Dragons.
STADIUM NERVES
Both of these sides have poor record at ANZ Stadium over the past five seasons:
o The Dragons have won just six of 16 matches (37.5%); half of these wins however have come against the Wests Tigers (3 from 3).
o The Tigers have a slightly worse record — nine wins from 25 matches (36%)
o In the 10 games played at ANZ Stadium between the clubs, the Dragons have won six to the Tigers four.
HALF TIME IS A GOOD TIME
St George Illawarra has led at halftime on eight occasions. They are undefeated this season when leading going into the break but are yet to come from behind to win (0-9).
In all the Tigers seven wins, they have led going into the break.
HOME ISN’T WHERE THE HEART IS
The Tigers have won just two of their eight matches away from home in 2016, and will be looking to avoid four straight away losses in the same season for the first time since Round 9-19 last season.
Betting summary: The early money is all for the Tigers.
South Sydney v Manly, Monday 7pm, Allianz Stadium
BLOWOUTS
Eight of the past 11 matches between Souths and Manly have been decided by double figure margins.
MONDAY ON MY MIND
The Rabbitohs have never lost to Manly on a Monday; they have met only four times, with the first game taking place in 1949.
HARD YARDS DOWN THE MIDDLE
Manly has created almost 40 per cent (20 of 54) of their tries this season through the centre of its opponent’s defensive line, the most and easily the highest percentage of any team.
LEAKY DEFENCE
Three of Souths most recent four matches at the SFS have been decided by 30 points or more, with six of their past eight by 14 points or more.
Betting summary: Souths are well supported here to cause an upset over Manly
Originally published as NRL Round 20 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
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