NRL Round 10 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
NRL betting markets: Punters are split on who will win whe the Eels and Rabbitohs clash tonight. What they do agree on, though, is it won’t be a close match. One side will blow the other out of the park.
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Check out all the best stats, what’s been backed and where the money is going in order to find a winner.
Eels v Rabbitohs
Friday 7.50pm, Pirtek Stadium
HOMESIDE ADVANTAGE
As the home team, with matches split between Parramatta and Homebush, the Eels have won just one of the past five matches, a 29-16 victory at Pirtek Stadium in 2015. However, their record against South Sydney at Pirtek Stadium alone is much more dominant, winning nine of the past 10 clashes dating back to 1997.
DESTRUCTIVE DEFENCE
The Eels strength this season has been their defence, conceding the third fewest points (13.2 per game), fourth fewest tries (2.2 per game), fourth fewest line breaks (3.4 per game) and have missed the second fewest tackles (20 per game).
UNHAPPY TRAVELLERS
The Rabbitohs have been unhappy travellers on the road in recent times, losing their past two by 22 points or more. They have won just seven of 18 matches away from home since the start of 2015.
RUNNING MACHINE
Greg Inglis ran for 280 metres in the Round 9 loss to the Tigers; it is the most metres Inglis has run in a match throughout his NRL career. It is also the second highest total of the season (Josh Dugan had 287 v Broncos in Round 6).
Betting summary: Customers think that one side will win convincingly as Parramatta 13+ and South Sydney 13+ have been well supported.
TAB latest market for Parramatta v Rabbitohs
Panthers v Warriors
Saturday 3pm, AMI Stadium Christchurch
TUNRING TABLES
Between 2006 and 2012 the Warriors dominated this clash, winning eight of the 12 matches and drawing one. That tide has turned, with Penrith winning the past two, and five of the past six matches against the Warriors.
CLOSE FINISH
All of Penrith’s nine matches this season have been decided by eight points or less. In six of these matches the result has been decided by two points or less, including two matches by one point. Their average margin this season is just three points; the lowest of any team in history through nine games.
SLOW STARTERS
The Warriors have conceded the most first half points this season with 142 — 14 more than the next worst team, the Titans.
DANGEROUS JOHNSON
Shaun Johnson has scored five tries and had eight try assists in nine games so far this season. He is one of only five players at the start of the round to have scored and assisted at least five tries (James Tedesco, Anthony Milford, Cooper Cronk and Michael Morgan).
Betting summary: Customers are rallying with the Panthers in this one as they are heavily supported in both the Head To Head market and the Multis.
TAB latest market for Panthers v Warriors
Storm v Cowboys
Saturday 5.30pm, Suncorp Stadium
HOME AWAY FROM HOME
Melbourne have won four of their past five matches in Queensland.
COWBOYS DOMINANCE
Throughout the past five seasons the Cowboys have won five of the past eight games against Melbourne, including a 32-12 win in the 2015 Preliminary Final.
TOUGH DEFENCE
Melbourne are the only team this season yet to concede 20 points, and they have the best defence in the NRL conceding 12.2 points per game on average. Much of this may be attributed to the fact they are missing the fewest tackles (17.4 per game) and conceding the fewest line-breaks (1.9 per game) this season.
HALFTIME TROUBLE
The Cowboys have won seven from seven when leading at half-time this season but lost both matches when trailing at the break, both of which came away from home.
Betting summary: Cowboys look to be more popular with multi players. The money is fairly even between the two in the Head To Head market.
TAB latest market for Storm v Cowboys
Sea Eagles v Broncos
Saturday 7.55pm, Suncorp Stadium
SUNCORP STRUGGLE
Manly have won 11 of their 15 matches against the Broncos since 2007, although the two most recent meetings at Suncorp have been big wins to the Broncos, 44-10 last season and 36-10 in 2014.
TEACHER’S PET
Manly have received the second-most penalties this season (8.4 per game) but is also conceding the equal-third most (8.3 per game).
STADIUM SUCCESS
Brisbane have won all five of their matches played at Suncorp Stadium this season. They have won the past three matches at the venue by a combined score of 109-8, keeping their opponent to less than eight points in each match, and to zero in two of the three matches.
TRY TIME
Brett Stewart is just one try away from entering the top five leading try-scorers of all time. He is trailing Terry Lamb (164) in fifth by just one try and Andrew Ettingshausen (165) in fourth by two.
Betting summary: Brisbane are one of the best backed teams in the NRL this weekend. All the money in the Head To Head market is in the Broncos’ favour. They are also heavily backed in the multis.
TAB latest market for Sea Eagles v Broncos
Knights v Sharks
Sunday 2pm, Hunter Stadium
TURNING THE TIDE
The Knights had a very successful period against the Sharks, winning eight of nine games between 2010 and 2014 but last season the Sharks won both meetings. Cronulla have not won three straight against the Knights since 2003-05.
LEAKING POINTS
The Knights have conceded the most points (32.6 per game), the most tries (5.7 per game) and the second-most line-breaks (5.9 per game) this season. Their discipline has also been poor, conceding the most penalties (8.9 per game).
SECOND PHASE SUCCESS
The Sharks have scored the third-most points this season (24.3 per game), behind the Broncos and the Cowboys. Part of the reason for this may be their second phase football, averaging the second-most offloads of any team this season with 12.9 per game.
BIG GAL
Paul Gallen ran for a game-high 237 metres and made 31 tackles in his man-of-the-match performance for Australia against New Zealand last Friday. He averages 164 metres per game, equal fifth in the NRL.
Betting summary: It’s all the Sharks in this one. Cronulla are heavily supported to win this fixture.
TAB latest market for Knights v Sharks
Tigers v Bulldogs
Sunday 4pm, ANZ Stadium
BLOW OUT
Recent matches between these two sides have been very high scoring, with at least 40 points scored in each of the past seven games for an average of 49 points per game.
FIRST HALF ROAR
The Wests Tigers have dominated the first 20 minutes of games and are ranked first in the NRL with 78 points scored. The same cannot be said for the opening 20 minutes of the second half, conceding 106 points, the most in this period of time.
RED ZONE
Canterbury have the second-best red zone defence of any team this season behind the Cowboys, conceding a try for every 21 tackles that opponents have had inside their 20-metre line.
CLASHES OF THE COACHES
Jason Taylor has a poor record coaching against Canterbury, winning just two of seven matches. Four of his past five matches against them have been decided by eight points or less. However, he has a better record coaching against Des Hasler, winning five of his 10 matches.
Betting summary: There was good money earlier in the week to suggest the Tigers could cause an upset. They have firmed from $4 into $3.25.
TAB latest market for Tigers v Bulldogs
Titans v Roosters
Monday 7pm, Cbus Super Stadium
THIRD TIME LUCKY
The Roosters are looking for three straight wins against the Titans for the first time. The Chooks have won just three of their previous 10 games against them.
MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS
The Roosters have a great record on Monday night recently having won eight of their past 10 matches overall since 2013 — the highest win percentage of any team over this period. They were last-start losers to Penrith in Round 7, although they have not lost consecutive Monday night games since 2011.
TUMBLING TITANS
After winning their first two home games this season the Titans have now lost their past three. They have not lost four in a row at Robina since 2014 when they lost a club record eight straight at home.
LEFT EDGE ADVANTAGE
The Titans have favoured their left edge this season with 16 of their 28 tries coming down this channel compared to eight through the centre and just four through the right.
Betting summary: Not a great deal of interest in the Head To Head market between these two sides, however, the Roosters are very popular with multi players.
TAB latest market for Titans v Roosters
Originally published as NRL Round 10 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
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