Matthew Johns previews week one of the NRL finals series
MATTHEW JOHNS: They say the finals are like a new competition, they’re right! I can’t remember a series with so many genuine chances — so here’s my week one guide.
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They say the finals are like a new competition, they’re right!
You hit September, maybe carrying a few injuries, maybe the team is down on form, but suddenly everything changes. With the arrival of the finals comes a new lease of life, it’s like you’ve been refuelled.
I’m not saying ignore the form line around these four games, but no matter how good a team is playing, once you hit the finals nothing is guaranteed.
I can’t remember a finals series with so many genuine chances. Expect the unexpected.
BRISBANE V GOLD COAST
On form this game looks the most straightforward. The Broncos have won their last five games. Ignore last week’s sub-par performance against the Sydney Roosters, for the first 30 minutes their heads weren’t in the contest. I guarantee they’ll be focused this week.
The Titans, on the other hand, have dropped off a touch in the last month. I sense a slight attitude adjustment.
Since the arrival of Jarryd Hayne, the Gold Coast appear to be overplaying their attack. They need to revert back to that style of football where they build pressure on the opposition through possession, power running and high-energy defence.
The Titans need to play to a simple goal and that is to be in a position to win the football game with 10 minutes to go. Because the game management and decision making when the match is on the line is still an area where the Broncos struggle.
For the Titans to cause an upset, they need to contain Anthony Milford. They need to defend in a manner which presents Milford no visual incentive to run. The Titans should compress their defence and encourage Milford to pass.
Hayne needs a big game. He would’ve been disappointed with his performance last Saturday and Neil Henry will be hoping the finals atmosphere ignites Hayne’s best form.
WHO WINS? The Titans have done brilliantly to reach the finals, but the Broncos by 8.
CANBERRA V CRONULLA
The Raiders couldn’t have been more impressive last Sunday, demolishing the Tigers. But coach Ricky Stuart will be at his players to get that performance out of their minds immediately and mentally prepare for what will be a tough, grinding arm wrestle.
You see, while the Raiders were scoring at will last weekend, the Sharks were experiencing finals football a week early in their loss to the Melbourne Storm.
Sharks coach Shane Flanagan will view the Raiders’ last two victories, 44-30 over Manly and 52-10 over the Tigers, as no ideal preparation for a tough 80-minute battle. But can they rediscover their best football for the finals?
When the Sharks were firing they were doing it by dominating the middle field with a rushing defence and in attack bringing the speed men, like Valentine Holmes, Jack Bird and Ben Barba, into play against a tiring opposition middle defence.
In the last month the Sharks have, to a certain extent, abandoned this and are instead pushing the ball to the edges.
Against the big Raiders pack through the middle is where opportunity lies for the Sharks’ outside backs, particularly if Cronulla can dominate possession early.
WHO WINS? A huge test mentally for the young Raiders. If they get their attitude right, I expect them to win in front of their big home crowd. Raiders by 6
MELBOURNE V NORTH QUEENSLAND
Wow, how do you separate these two teams? Two great packs of forwards with champion playmakers.
The first 30 minutes is absolutely vital in this.
Every team has their kryptonite and the Storm’s is their ability to chase points. When they fall behind on the scoreboard, I sense a real change in their attitude.
Suddenly they don’t appear so patient with the football and they start to look frustrated.
When the Storm get a lead, it’s like they kick into auto-drive and methodically stick to their structure and take the opposition apart.
The Cowboys need to start well. They can’t allow the Storm to get away to a lead and be comfortable. If the Cowboys are in front after halftime, it will force Melbourne away from their game plan and that frustrates them.
Whoever earns the week off here will be incredibly difficult to beat in two weeks, and red-hot favourites for the title.
WHO WINS? I’m going for the Cowboys in a classic. Cowboys by 2.
PENRITH V CANTERBURY
Hardly anybody gives the Bulldogs a chance and that’s exactly the way they like it. Performing in finals football is in the Bulldogs’ DNA, I guarantee they’ll come right up for this.
I mean how many times have the Dogs limped to September and then suddenly started playing their best football?
You remember the old line when they shocked the Roosters one finals match, “The Roosters turned up in Armani suits and the Dogs turned up in Boiler suits.”
This exciting, young Panthers team has been all about points and ball movement during the last month, but the Dogs will look to turn this into a completely different game of football which they’ll be hoping catches the inexperienced, but brilliant Panthers off-guard.
The attacking combination of Matt Moylan, Bryce Cartwright and Nathan Cleary were exceptional in their victory over Manly on Sunday night, but the key to victory this weekend will lie with the young Panther forwards as they take on the likes of James Graham, Sam Kasiano and David Klemmer.
The Dogs will try to rattle the Panthers with good old-fashioned physicality. With the football, I don’t think the Dogs have any other choice but to simplify things.
Canterbury will revert to their power football which will act as the greatest test yet for this young Panthers team.
WHO WINS? Really tough to pick. I sense a real chance of an upset, but will go with the Panthers on the form of Matt Moylan. Penrith by 2.
Originally published as Matthew Johns previews week one of the NRL finals series
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