Finals race: NRL top eight shapes as a record in mediocrity
Up to 12 teams are somehow still in the hunt for a top eight spot as we enter the final two rounds of the regular season — check out how we predict the ladder will finish up.
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The NRL could be on the way to setting a record in mediocrity.
Brisbane can qualify for the finals series by not winning another game and finishing the season on 23 competition points — the lowest total of any top-eight team under the current format.
The Broncos currently occupy the final playoff spot, one point ahead of the Wests Tigers and Penrith, and two ahead of Newcastle and Canterbury.
With games against Parramatta (home) and Canterbury (away), their finals place is far from certain, but in an amazing proposition, Brisbane can still lose those games and make the top eight.
For that to eventuate, this needs to happen:
Round 24
* Gold Coast beat Newcastle;
* Sydney Roosters beat Penrith;
* Canberra beat Cronulla; and
* St George Illawarra beat Wests Tigers
Round 25
* Cronulla beat Wests Tigers
* Newcastle beat Penrith
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With two rounds of the regular season left, here's what the #NRL ladder looks like. How is your team going? pic.twitter.com/2IIyt9311W
— Telegraph Sport (@telegraph_sport) August 26, 2019
If the Broncos fall into the finals this way, they will beat their own previous record of 24 competition points they needed to qualify for the top eight in 2007 under the 24-game season format.
North Sydney also made the top eight with just 24 points in 1995 when the talent was far more diluted in the 20-team competition.
Western Suburbs Magpies qualified for the seven-team ARL finals system in 1997 with 21 points from 22 games.
It’s unlikely 23 points will be enough to get the Broncos into the finals this year, and they’re likely to miss out altogether, meaning no Queensland representation in this year’s post-season.
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Here’s how we predict the season will finish:
1 STORM
Run home: Rd 24 v Sea Eagles (A), Rd 25 v Cowboys (H)
Analysis: The minor premiership is virtually wrapped up, but there’s still plenty to play for in Melbourne.
The Storm play Manly this weekend, whom they could face in the first week of the finals. Given the Sea Eagles beat them in Melbourne four weeks ago and this Saturday is eight years since the Battle of Brookvale, it shapes as a cracker.
2 ROOSTERS
Run home: Rd 24 v Panthers (H), Rd 25 v Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: With a top-two finish secured following a brilliant past six weeks (their last defeat came against North Queensland in mid-July), Trent Robinson’s men can take the foot off the gas a little — but they likely won’t.
This weekend’s opponents Penrith are scrapping for their finals lives, while they won’t want to drop a final-round clash to bitter rivals South Sydney.
The Roosters eased Sio Siua Taukeiaho back in from the bench, and still have captain Boyd Cordner and Jake Friend to return.
3 RAIDERS
Run home: Rd 24 v Sharks (A), Rd 25 v Warriors (H)
Analysis: Botched their chance to lock down a top-four finish after injury-hit Manly’s comeback win in Canberra last Sunday and could now slip to fifth place.
Having looked like premiership contenders beating the Storm in Melbourne last week, the Raiders could now need to beat both Cronulla (away) and New Zealand (home) to ensure a top-four finish.
4 SEA EAGLES
Run home: Rd 24 v Storm (H), Rd 25 v Eels (A)
Analysis: After coming from behind to defeat the Raiders in Canberra, despite losing troops during the game, the Sea Eagles are closing in on the unlikeliest of top-four finishes.
Firstly from where they came last year (15th), but also by how they’ve done it.
Tough games against Melbourne (home) and Parramatta (away) to come, but they’ve already beaten both of those teams in 2019.
5 RABBITOHS
Run home: Rd 24 v Warriors (A), Rd 25 v Roosters (H)
Analysis: One week Wayne Bennett is calling Souths’ slide almost terminal, the next he is in the bowels of Suncorp Stadium celebrating a crunch victory over Brisbane without a Burgess anywhere to be seen on the team sheet.
They ended their three-match losing run gallantly and face New Zealand (away) this weekend, but a final-round blockbuster against the Roosters (home) still stands between the Rabbitohs and a top-four finish.
6 EELS
Run home: Rd 24 v Broncos (A), Rd 25 v Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: Not only did they potentially blow any top-four chance they had, Parramatta are now also looking nervously over their shoulder at Cronulla creeping up on them and potentially stealing a home final.
Couldn’t extend their four-match winning streak, but have to regroup with matches against Brisbane (away) and Manly (home) to round out the season if they want week one of the finals to be at Bankwest Stadium.
7 SHARKS
Run home: Rd 24 v Raiders (H), Rd 25 v Wests Tigers (A)
Analysis: With Penrith and Newcastle slipping up, one win from Cronulla’s final two matches against Canberra (away) and Wests Tigers (away) will get them into the finals.
The Sharks can still snatch a home final if the Eels drop their remaining games.
Sunday afternoon’s home clash against the Raiders will have major ramifications for both the top four and top eight.
8 TIGERS
Run home: Rd 24 v Dragons (A), Rd 25 v Sharks (H)
Analysis: Wests can win their final two games against St George Illawarra (away) and Cronulla (home) and still miss the top eight.
Although victory over the Dragons may be enough to get the Tigers into the top eight, on 24 points, given how their rivals continue to trip themselves up.
9 PANTHERS
Run home: Rd 24 v Roosters (A), Rd 25 v Knights (H)
Analysis: Had it all to play for against the Cowboys and let it slip. Amazingly, Penrith could lose to the Roosters this weekend and still make the eight by beating Newcastle in the final round, if other results go their way.
Hard to see them toppling the Roosters following last week’s meek performance against North Queensland, but given the bunched sprint to the finish line, there’s still hope for Panthers fans praying their club isn’t about to embark on a rebuilding phase.
10 BULLDOGS
Run home: Rd 24 v Cowboys (A), Rd 25 v Broncos (H)
Analysis: Canterbury can still make the finals. No, this isn’t a misprint, the team that was last on the NRL ladder seven weeks ago can still miraculously figure in the top eight.
However unlikely, the Bulldogs can complete the Sunshine State double against North Queensland (away) and Brisbane (home, finish the season with eight wins from their final 10 games, do a Steven Bradbury and take advantage of their rivals slipping over ahead of them.
11 BRONCOS
Run home: Rd 24 v Eels (H), Rd 25 v Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: Brisbane can finish anywhere from seventh to 12th, such is the congestion at the bottom of the top eight.
The home defeat to South Sydney hurts, and things don’t get any easier with Parramatta (home) and Canterbury (away) to close out the season.
The Broncos benefit because two final-round games — Tigers v Sharks and Panthers v Knights — involve teams directly around them.
They can win one match, finish on 25 competition points and still make the finals. Crazy.
12 KNIGHTS
Run home: Rd 24 v Titans (H), Rd 25 v Panthers (A)
Analysis: What a way to self-sabotage your own finals hopes. The Knights owe their fans an explanation, and an apology, for the Nathan Brown debacle that has cost them their 2019 season and another year of disappointment that’s worse than when they won three wooden spoons because of the hope they held for better days ahead.
Somehow, Newcastle can still make the finals but that hope just seems cruel on their supporters.
Already gone:
13 New Zealand
14 St George Illawarra
15 North Queensland
16 Gold Coast Titans
Originally published as Finals race: NRL top eight shapes as a record in mediocrity
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