Competition shake-up: Why the NRL will inevitably have to follow the AFL’s decision to introduce a wildcard weekend

The NRL faces its biggest structural shake-up in history with a conference system and wildcard round on the cards as two new teams prepare to join the competition. When the finals system could be introduced.

South Sydney CEO Blake Solly believes a wildcard round, and ultimately a move to a conference system, will be inevitable for the NRL as the game moves towards a 20-team competition.

It comes after the AFL confirmed it will introduce its own wildcard round next season, effectively going from a top eight to a top-10 system in an overhaul to the game’s finals format.

Solly is a long-time proponent of a wildcard system under an expanded NRL competition and believes it will help keep more fans engaged at the back end of the season.

“Once our competition gets to 19 or 20 teams, a wildcard round makes sense,” Solly said.

“I think it will have some commercial benefit but that might not be significant. What it will do is add some interest to games at the end of the season which in the past haven’t been as interesting because they are not relevant to playoffs.

“So hopefully, the NRL can derive some commercial benefit from that.”

The AFL’s wildcard round will be played in the weekend normally reserved for the pre-finals bye, with seventh hosting 10th and the eighth to play ninth to determine the final two places in the top eight.

The top six teams will be given the weekend off.

There are growing calls for the NRL to introduce the concept, with a similar format to the AFL, in a bid to stop coaches from mass resting players in the final round once seventh or eighth spot is locked in.

After locking in seventh spot on the ladder, Penrith rested 16 players for their final round clash against Canterbury leading to calls for the NRL to review the current format.

The introduction of the Perth Bears in 2027 and the PNG Chiefs a year later will expand the competition to 19 teams, but a 20th franchise, potentially in New Zealand, is also on the cards as part of the NRL’s expansion ambitions.

Solly believes an even bigger shake-up, on the back of the game’s expansion plans, is on the horizon for the NRL – a conference system.

“But also, when we do finally expand to 20 team competition there is likely to change to the way our competition is structured with, say, the introduction of conferences.

“Once those conferences are introduced you almost need to have a wildcard round just as the NFL does.”

In August, NRL bosses Peter V’landys and Andrew Abdo told this masthead that a wildcard round had merit and would be discussed in the future.

This masthead spoke to a number of club CEOs on Monday and while there was wide support for the wildcard round concept, many pointed out that adding an extra round — under the current format — could be difficult in what was already a full NRL calendar.

Right now, the competition calendar includes the pre-season challenge, a 27-round regular season — plus an extra week to accommodate the stand-alone Las Vegas weekend — and a finals series which culminates on the October long weekend. Any changes would mean starting the season a week earlier or finishing a week later, which will also impact player leave entitlements during the off-season.

Blake Solly on eventually moving to a conference system.

A number of potential conference systems have already been floated for when the NRL does finally introduce a 20th team, which could happen as soon as 2030.

Potential competition models that have been floated include splitting a 20-team competition into either two conferences, or four separate conferences based around geographic location.

A conference system is likely to reduce the overall number of regular round games, which opens up the NRL’s calendar for a wildcard weekend.

Given a 20th team could be introduced in the middle of the game’s next broadcast deal, a wildcard round and conference system is likely to move higher up the ARL Commission’s agenda.

The NRL’s current TV deal with Nine and Foxtel, which is worth around $2 billion, expires at the end of the 2027 season with official talks set to begin this week.

Originally published as Competition shake-up: Why the NRL will inevitably have to follow the AFL’s decision to introduce a wildcard weekend