NRL Premiership, Top 8 odds update and analysis
Can the teams at the top hold onto the favouritism for the flag? Who provides the best value to make the top eight?
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NRL Magic Round/Round 10 Odds Premiership Update
Magic Round in Brisbane was exactly what the name suggests with some thrilling encounters, upsets galore and teams stamping their authority.
The Raiders beat the Bulldogs 34-30 to kick off the round as two poor defences went head to head, while the Broncos showed their offensive power against the struggling Sea Eagles winning 32-6 later that night.
The Panthers still haven’t looked at their dominant best on offence but got the job done beating the Warriors 18-8 and the Rabbitohs look like the team to beat at the moment, easily downing the Storm, 28-12.
Although some of the heavy favourites got the job done, there were still some magical results occurring at Suncorp Stadium, starting off with the Dolphins downing an in-form Cronulla Sharks 16-36 via a Wayne Bennett coaching masterclass and getting the best out of his role players.
The Cowboys have had a horror start to the season, but were prolific in smashing the Roosters 20-6 and the Titans have shocked many by now moving into the top eight after a nailbiting win against the Eels (26-24)
Finally the bottom two teams battled it out as Wests now have two wins in a row, beating the Dragons 18-16.
NRL PREMIERSHIP & TOP 8 ODDS
The NRL ladder is showing that 2023 is one of the closest seasons in history, with third to 11th only separated by two points and seven of the top nine teams all on 12 points.
- Premiership: $4.25
- Top 8: $1.07
The Panthers are third on the ladder but their premiership odds continue to lengthen as they sit 5-4 and can’t find the offensive dominance of their past few premiership winning seasons.
The Broncos and Souths above them on the ladder have been much more consistent and although Penrith have the best defence in the league, they will continue to rise in odds if they can’t fix an offence that’s ranked seventh.
- Premiership: $4.40
- Top 8: $1.02
After their huge win on the weekend, the Rabbitohs are 7-3 and have now beaten the Storm, Panthers, Roosters and Sharks convincingly this season: all of who were top eight teams last year.
Their ability to rise against the top teams and be ranked in the top four for both offence and defence makes them one of the best teams in the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them jump into favouritism for the flag very soon because of this.
- Premiership: $7
- Top 8: $1.20
The Roosters premiership odds have risen after a horrible loss to the 14th-placed Cowboys and seeing them at 5-4 for the season.
Sydney will continue to see their title odds rise due to their inconsistency away from home (1-4 this season) and although they have a quality side, will need to not rely on star players from here.
- Premiership: $7
- Top 8: $1.02
The Broncos had a big win on Friday night over Manly, taking them to 8-2 and on top of the ladder. But interestingly their premiership odds continue to rise due to their questionable ability to perform against the best teams.
Since beating the Panthers, Brisbane’s two losses have come against the Raiders - a finals team last year - and then smashed by the Rabbitohs who are pushing for the top spot.
The Broncos still have the second best offence in the league, but need to stop relying on their stars to stay in the top four.
- Premiership: $9
- Top 8: $1.22
The Storm’s premiership odds continue to be a rollercoaster each week after some shock losses and shock wins.
Melbourne are 5-4 (like many teams in the league are), but have yet to show the killer instinct that they have had in the past, with three of their wins coming under 12 points. Although their quality - as shown by the likes of star Nick Meaney - is that of a finals side, their inconsistency will show in the finals.
- Premiership: $9
- Top 8: $1.25
The Sharks are also at 5-4 and at their best can beat anyone, but the Dolphins halted their three-game win streak and punters are starting to question them again.
The Sharks still have the best offence in the league, led by Ronaldo Mulitalo and William Kennedy and because of this still makes them a threat for the top four as they’re able to outscore most teams.
- Premiership: $26
- Top 8: $2.50
Punters are starting to lose faith in this year’s Eels, sitting at 4-6 and now a huge gap in the premiership odds after the top six teams.
Even in 13th, the Eels are in the top four offences in the league through star Maika Sivo and their experience (after making the Grand Final last season) still makes them a great value bet to make the top eight this season.
- Premiership: $26
- Top 8: $2.10
The Dolphins continue to silence the critics, sitting in fifth at 6-4 and are playing an exciting brand of footy.
The new team have beaten the Sharks, Raiders and Roosters this season already who all made the top eight last year and although they don’t have the best team on paper, super coach Wayne Bennett has some role players of the past becoming stars of the league and building a team that can definitely make the finals.
- Premiership: $41
- Top 8: $2.25
The Sea Eagles premiership odds have risen dramatically after two bad losses in a row and superstar Turbo Tom Trbojevic isn’t looking anywhere near his best since coming back from injury.
With injury problems seeing their offence ranked 11th in the league, so their odds are rising as they continue to drop down the ladder.
- Premiership: $41
- Top 8: $2.25
The Raiders are now 5-4 and are having a very similar year to last, building as the season progresses and have now won their last four games.
Canberra allowed 30 points to get through in their win against the injury-riddled Bulldogs over the weekend which begs questions of their defence, but the form of Jordan Rapana over the last month gives them a real chance at finals.
- Premiership :$51
- Top 8: $2.20
The Warriors kept their game close over the weekend but failed to convert it into a win, now sitting at 5-5 and their finals hopes are fading.
New Zealand have been solid on defence only allowing 19.8 points per game, but are ranked 12th in offence and can’t rely on a low scoring tussle win against the top sides.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS - Premiership: $67 - Top 8: $4.50
GOLD COAST TITANS - Premiership: $67 Top 8: $3
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS - Premiership: $151 - Top 8: $9
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS - Premiership: $151 - Top 8: $10
WESTS TIGERS - Premiership: $201 - Top 8: $15
ST GEORGE/ILLAWARRA DRAGONS - Premiership: $25 - Top 8: $26
(all odds via bet365 as of May 8)
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Originally published as NRL Premiership, Top 8 odds update and analysis
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