Medhurst: Breaking down the Fowler-Nembhard effect on Fever as top four fight heats up
Breaking down the Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard effect; what’s wrong with Helen Housby and the fight for the final four. Nat Medhurst on the key talking points of Super Netball.
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The make up of the final four for the 2025 Suncorp Super Netball season is getting interesting.
It is a mix of teams stepping up when pressure to make finals is being applied; lower ranked teams causing plenty of upsets; and one team needing to revert the “loss they maybe needed to have” back into a winning formula.
THE FOWLER-NEMBHARD EFFECT
Sitting second - only by percentage - the West Coast Fever have been a completely different team since Round 3, coinciding with the return of super shooter Jhaniele Fowler-Nembhard into their line up.
The Fever have been on an eight-game winning streak since Fowler-Nembhard hit the court again, proving her presence and value to this team is immense.
There is no denying it. They play differently with her.
There is more confidence across the whole court with her in the shooting circle.
It is not only what she has done, including a massive 71 from 72 attempts against the NSW Swifts in Round 9, but the confidence it instills in the players around her.
As a goal attack, the ability to attack the post knowing that there is a player like Fowler-Nembhard there helps when it comes to backing yourself into goal.
The ball movement outside the circle, and the confidence on the long ball into it is without a doubt clear for everyone to see.
The work by the defenders would be feeling more ‘rewarded’ and keep them up and about as the Fever now sit at a 72.2 per cent ‘gains to goal’ rate this season.
There is more balance in who is delivering what at any given time, making it hard for opposition teams to nullify impact and know who to concentrate on.
The Fever’s current form is hard not to ignore. They have beaten teams convincingly, including the Swifts - who were undefeated at the time.
However, their Round 4 two-point win against the Sunshine Coast Lightning and even their first three quarters against the Giants shows that there are gaps that can be exposed.
But teams need to be on to it. Since 2018, when Fowler-Nembhard first entered the SSN
Competition, Fever have won just one premiership.
I only say ‘just’ as I also know how hard they are to come by, but there would certainly be years that went begging.
These next four rounds are going to be challenging for the Fever but I feel this season, with Jhaniele in the team and the growth in combinations across the court, that 2025 is theirs for the taking. And they would no doubt sense that too.
STUMBLING SWIFTS
“It might be the best thing for us”.
After finishing sixth in 2024 and on the back of a big name signing in Grace Nweke, a lot has been expected of the NSW Swifts in 2025. And they delivered.
Even with the loss of captain Maddy Proud with the birth of her first child, the Swifts went undefeated up until that Round 9 clash against the Fever.
When a team loses their first game after a string of wins, the cliché response of it being a loss they needed to have, usually follows.
But now the Swifts have had two consecutive losses and are coming up against the Giants this weekend, who are looking to ruffle as many feathers as they can in these final four rounds.
The “loss they needed to have” sentiment is only going to be valid if the Swifts can get back in the winners’ circle now and manage to take away the premiership this season.
There is no doubt that the Swifts are capable of winning the title, but the ability for any team, particularly when competition is so fierce, to find a way to believe and win is a lot easier said than done.
This is where the mental battle of sport really kicks in. Where doubt creeps into the minds of individuals and the collective, and opposition can smell that and take advantage of it.
As a player, particularly a goal attack, I know there are more than just shooting stats that matter.
However, I do think the role gun shooter Helen Housby is playing needs to make a shift. It is becoming too predictable for opposition and also adds significant pressure for her to constantly step up during the two-point period - appreciating that she usually tends to step up and deliver.
It is the one-point game that I would like to see a shift in her shooting volume, or at the very least getting into the circle to be an option.
It might not be every quarter, but there needs to be variety and currently there is little of it. This is where the feeders also play a critical role in using Housby when she is in the circle. Give her the ball. She can shoot from anywhere at any time and I would like to see not only Housby, but all shooters in the league, doing that irrespective of it being the “super shot” period.
Why will shooters happily sink from the 2-point arc, particularly the closest point to the post for five minutes every quarter, yet avoid it completely at any other point in the game?
The cloak of invisibility for a goal attack, where leads and options in the circle often seem to get completely ignored for a holding shooter is somewhat a reality.
And I believe it can be costly. The feeders need to start seeing her. To create less predictability and make defenders second guess what is going to happen at any time.
THREE DOESN’T FIT INTO TWO
With the Swifts and Fever battling it out for minor premiers, below them are three teams fighting hard to have a crack at finals.
The Sunshine Coast Lightning and Melbourne Vixens both sitting on 24 points and in fifth the Adelaide Thunderbirds, who will be wanting to have a crack at a third premiership.
Who makes this final four could very well come down to the final match in Round 14 which will see the Fever take on the Vixens.
These three teams would each be wanting to take destiny into their own hands, but that rarely happens.
Always one team will be left looking at the game that they should have won. The moment
that they didn’t take. The decisions that ended their season.
Based on form from the past few rounds, it is surprising that the Vixens are the most likely to secure third spot on the ladder.
Simone McKinnis and her players clearly found a good pub to go to and have managed to string four wins in a row together, including a huge two-point win against the Swifts in Round 10. Meanwhile, the Lightning and Thunderbirds have lost games that might come back to haunt them.
What makes it interesting is that in these final four rounds, these three teams all face off against each other.
Intensity and pressure in these games is going to be reflective of a finals match, with players not wanting to leave anything to chance.
With the Vixens finding form at the right time, I would expect their confidence would be higher than the other two.
Pressure on individuals Latanya Wilson (Thunderbirds) and Steph Fretwell (Lightning) to step up in these final four rounds for their respective sides would be high.
Both the Lightning and Thunderbirds have well established bookends with experience and a lot is going to be asked of them as the season comes to a close.
That is the reality of not only being in the big league, but of being the big name players in this League.
Those who identify moments within these final round games and grab it with both hands, will be playing a big role in setting up their sides for a finals campaign.
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Originally published as Medhurst: Breaking down the Fowler-Nembhard effect on Fever as top four fight heats up
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