NBL 2024-25 finals analysis: How Melbourne United blew chance at a dynasty

In an alternate universe, Melbourne United would be celebrating a third NBL championship in four years – but once again have been left to pick up the pieces. Here’s how they blew their chance.

We should be talking about an NBL dynasty.

Instead, Melbourne United has blown a third chance in four years to claim the NBL championship as old wounds were ripped open by Illawarra on Sunday in a heartbreaking game-five defeat that magnified a trend that is beginning to wrack the proud club.

The ethos at United under Dean Vickerman’s reign is to always put themselves in a position to win a championship and, 2023 aside, Melbourne has appeared in every NBL finals series since he took over in 2017 — going all the way in 2018 and ‘21.

But, after finishing on top of the table in both 2022 and ‘24, semi-final defeat at the hands of nemesis Tasmania and then last season’s grand final loss to the JackJumpers in a five-game epic gave rise to fears — some relished in — United had become susceptible under the pressure of the biggest occasions.

Hellbent on redemption ever since last year’s game five grand final capitulation against the JackJumpers, Illawarra ensured those fears were realised in a game-five decider in the ‘Gong that left United facing another year of torment — and the bigger question: is it enough to get so, so near, yet so far?

Melbourne only has itself to blame.

They squandered a golden opportunity on Wednesday to close the series and celebrate in front of their home fans against a Hawks’ side missing two of its best players.

Then, when the chips were really down, they couldn’t find the answers as a hostile Illawarra crowd and the pressure of a road decider engulfed them.

Chris Goulding and Melbourne United fell short against the Hawks. Picture: Getty Images

Tyler Harvey celebrates the win in Illawarra. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images.

The small-town, big-heart Hawks led by double digits several times throughout the series and, despite blowing a number of their own opportunities to ram home those advantages, in the end they found a will and a way to win just the second title in the foundation club’s 46-year history, ending a 24-year drought dating back to their only other salute in 2001.

And boy, did they have to find a way.

The off-court noise was deafening.

Coach Justin Tatum’s running battle with the referees and the league reared its head again after game three, when he was hit with a $7500 fine for post-game comments that suggested the NBL favoured United over the Hawks.

But that paled in comparison to what came next.

Game five was played against the backdrop of owner Jared Novelly’s bombshell attempt to rally a club-led NBL takeover from league saviour Larry Kestelman.

The billionaire pair crossed paths prior to the game and exchanged a gentlemanly handshake which gave no real clue to the explosive revelations — or the potential storm brewing.

Multiple sources in Illawarra told Code Sports many within the club were shocked to see Novelly’s plan become national news just days before the biggest game in franchise history.

But it didn’t matter.

On the strength of the brilliant Will ‘Davo’ Hickey — who once wore a United jersey as a little-used development player — and the dominant return of Trey Kell after he missed game four with injury, the Hawks found a way.

Hawks fans celebrate their championships win. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images.

In five emergent games, late-bloomer Hickey, 26, made the leap from energetic role player, to bona fide NBL star with a series to remember.

He led the Hawks in scoring, assists and steals and was second in rebounding, stepping up in Kell’s absence in game four, then dominating alongside the American, who put up his own gaudy line of 26-11-7.

“Nobody’s believes in me, right?” Hickey said after the game.

We’re all believers now, Davo.

In last year’s grand final series, United was outrebounded by 29 across the three losses — an issue identified as one of their biggest leanings out of the series and something they had to rectify if they were going to go one better.

But old habits died hard and Melbourne was quite literally crushed by the Hawks in both games four (55-43) and five (53-30).

The margin in game five was 10 points. Had United not been so poor from the free throw line, it might have gone the other way. They shot 45 free throws in the game — their most of any game this season — but left 13 at the line. At one point, Marcus Lee switched from right-hand to left-hand shots in a bid to find a way to put the ball through the cylinder.

Illawarra Hawks celebrate with the championship trophy. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images.

For Australian basketball icon Matthew Dellavedova, who owns an NBA championship he won alongside LeBron James in Cleveland and a historic Olympic bronze medal, the chase for an elusive NBL title continues.

It was Delly, more than any other United player, who lifted throughout the series, his 16-point, 11-assist, 0-turnover game three a masterpiece, but the 34-year-old never found his stride in the decider.

The NBL’s game-by-game voting system for the Larry Sengstock grand final MVP award must be changed after Dellavedova was met with a chorus of boos when his name was announced.

The Hawks won the series and the MVP should have been Hickey, but Dellavedova’s earlier efforts were enough to seal the vote.

Classy Delly quietened the crowd, then the boos turned to cheers as he told them he agreed it should be Hickey’s award, before handing his opponent the trophy.

Matthew Dellavedova hands over his Finals MVP award to William Hickey Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

Hawks fans were understandably filthy their man didn’t win but, regardless, Delly’s contribution to Aussie basketball deserved better.

The 34-year-old wants his next NBL deal to take him to the 2028 LA Olympics and, with United hesitant to commit long-term and Sydney circling, could Delly be wearing another jersey in NBL26?

Mr United Chris Goulding, his game, like his grand final series, never quite took off.

CG43 was serviceable, without starring, held to under 20 points in all five games by the Hawks’ swarming legion of defenders, led by Wani Swaka Lo Buluk.

He had just 5 points on 1-6 from deep at halftime of the decider and couldn’t find a way to break the shackles when United needed him most.

At 36, Goulding continues to bust a host of three-point shooting records — No.1 in grand final threes, No.2 in NBL finals threes, most threes in the 40-minute era — and remains at the centre of everything United does.

Dean Vickerman is left to pick up the pieces again. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images.

But he will gear up for season No.19 as he closes in on becoming the 15th person to play 500 NBL games carrying the frustration of being below his best as another opportunity gone begging — more fuel for one of the sport’s ultimate competitors.

For all the cries of ‘Melbourne bias’ from the ‘MBL’ that has so frustrated those at the club and the league, United has won only the two titles since 2014 when they were rebranded from the Melbourne Tigers.

Top-of-the-table in November with a 12-4 record, it was beginning to feel like the championship was United’s to lose.

But the infamous ‘Affray at JCA’, where Adelaide 36ers players clashed with crowd members amid allegations of fan racism put the club in the spotlight and threatened to derail its season.

As investigations dragged out, some at the club felt their hard work in the inclusion space had been undermined and, whether they’d admit it, it coincided with a streak of five losses in six games that had alarm bells ringing.

That controversy faded, though, and the club found a way to get back on track, sealing second spot by winning six of their last seven games before squeaking past Perth in the semi-finals to make it to the grand final.

From there, it was an all-too familiar, frustrating script.

Originally published as NBL 2024-25 finals analysis: How Melbourne United blew chance at a dynasty