Mick McGuane: Why the Pies are closer to the premiership peak than Blues
Alastair Clarkson says he is committed to Hawthorn next season but, hypothetically, if that changed, would he pick Collingwood or Carlton? Mick McGuane has the answer.
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If Alastair Clarkson was offered the job of coaching Carlton or Collingwood, which club would give him the best chance of winning his fifth piece of ‘silverware’?
The question is academic at this stage, because Clarko has declared he has a moral obligation to honour the final year of his contract, even though the Hawks have committed to a coaching handover to Sam Mitchell in 2023.
I admire that loyalty.
But the turbulence of AFL footy means that things can – and often do – change almost in a heartbeat.
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If that happens, and if the master coach had a choice of clubs, it would be fascinating to see which one he thinks is closer to a flag right now.
It is a timely question with the Blues and the Magpies set to square off on Sunday, having both failed to meet expectations this season.
Call me parochial, but from a pure footy sense, I’d be choosing Collingwood.
This assessment is based on the cards on the table now. Delve a little deeper into the list profiles of both clubs, and the choice becomes more complicated.
It might be that the club willing to take a few calculated risks might be the one that positions itself best heading into the future.
Collingwood’s next coach must be across the club’s salary cap constraints, which spectacularly blew up in the Magpies’ face during last year’s trade period.
Carlton’s long-term coach – whether that is David Teague or Clarko or someone else – also needs to have strong input on their list structure.
Prospective coaches must be on the same page as list managers Nick Austin (Carlton) and Graham Wright (Collingwood) to ascertain what is and what isn’t possible in terms of player acquisition and retention next year and beyond.
No one seriously believes the Blues or Magpies can challenge for a flag next season. Can they win it the year after? Not for mine.
The year after that? Again, not unless they take some calculated risks.
Footy playing lists are always a moving feast. Nothing stays the same forever. If clubs can make bold list decisions in a given year, it can sometimes provide the domino that changes everything, especially with win-win trade scenarios.
Carlton and Collingwood must be bold and proactive, not predictable and reactive. It might be the difference between fast-tracking towards the next flag or remaining back in the pack.
PIES’ LEFT-FIELD TRADE OPTION
Salary cap transparency is a must for Collingwood’s next coach.
Is there any wriggle room to bring in the key forward the club has been chasing for years, but couldn’t after being shackled by a bulging salary cap?
The Magpies lost Adam Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson and Tom Phillips last year, yet still don’t have the salary cap room to hit the free agency market this year.
If I was my old premiership teammate Wrighty, I would be seriously entertaining having a conversation with potential suitors about releasing the club’s $1 million per season ruckman Brodie Grundy from his seven-year contract.
Wright wasn’t at the club when the deal was signed. It has six seasons to run, by which time Grundy will be still earning the best part of seven figures at 33.
Don’t get me wrong, Grundy is a very good player, but with the Magpies’ cap squeeze and with a few key players coming out of contract at the end of next season, can the club afford to have a $1 million per season ruckman?
The ideal suitor would be Geelong. Imagine the Cats with a good ruckman in the side. It’s the one area of their list they haven’t been able to bed down almost since Brad Ottens.
It’s doubtful Geelong would have the salary cap room to take on all of Grundy’s contract, but we’ve already seen Joel Selwood sacrifice money this year in the chase for a flag. Maybe Patrick Dangerfield might do the same.
A return home to Adelaide might also be an option for Grundy. Port Adelaide has enough ruck stocks, but the Crows could potentially add Grundy to work in tandem with Reilly O’Brien.
Collingwood would almost certainly have to pay part of Grundy’s contract – as they have had to do for Treloar – but some would argue it would be better to pay (say) $200,000 of the contract to play elsewhere than to pay him the full $1 million. Other savings can come more naturally.
Mason Cox’s $500,000 per season deal will be off the books next year, Scott Pendlebury will take less to play on for another year, Levi Greenwood has retired, and Josh Thomas and a few others might not secure deals they want.
Being bold and aggressive rather than being passive and accepting is the attitude Wrighty must embrace.
Grundy would be a short term loss. But don’t forget Max Lynch and Darcy Cameron – in Grundy’s absence – took on Max Gawn when the Magpies knocked off the Demons on Queen’s Birthday.
BLUES’ LEFT FIELD TRADE OPTION
Carlton used to be the most ruthless club when Wes Lofts and Ian Collins ruled with an iron fist.
Perhaps they need to channel that same mindset leading into this year’s trade period.
Jack Martin and Mitch McGovern have long-term contracts, but neither has delivered on their talents.
Martin is a shadow of the player who impressed in his first game for the Blues at the start of last year. He played 15 games last year, but has only played seven this season.
Is his body durable enough? Is he mentally resilient enough? Does he compromise his preparation to get the best out of himself?
These are the questions that need to be asked.
He is in the second year of a five-season $600,000 per season (as an average), but the Blues front ended that deal last year, which means any prospective suitors might only need to pay $400,000-$500,000 per year to gain his services.
While Martin has some currency there might be a chance to return to his home state and start working with Michael Walters at Fremantle.
McGovern might be harder to move, but it is worth the chance, given he might derive some benefit of a fresh start elsewhere.
Moving one or both of these underperforming players on might mean the Blues could strengthen their chase for Dockers mid Adam Cerra – maybe a swap for Martin and a high draft pick – and the word is the Blues are also into Bulldog Patrick Lipinski and restricted Swans free agent George Hewett.
Those three would add substantially to the Blues’ 2022 finals prospects. Watch this space!
MAGPIES’ GENERATION NEXT
Nick Daicos isn’t yet a Collingwood player, but he has the potential to be a once-in-a-generation midfielder which will help the Magpies in their quest for a flag.
He could be the long-term replacement for Scott Pendlebury, who has at least another season to go.
I don’t like putting pressure on a kid, but having watched his dad Peter play and having been lucky enough to also play with him, I’m super excited about what I see and hear about Nick.
He will be a ready-made AFL player when he comes into the system next year.
Collingwood has had seven debutants this season, which could be a good thing going forward.
Jay Rantall can run, but his ball use concerns me; Ollie Henry’s aerial work (seven marks against Richmond last week) clearly showed he is a player of the future; and Finlay Macrae is bred to find the footy and his base needs to be his 18 disposals on debut in Round 5.
Trent Bianco finds space and is a good ball user and decision maker, but lacks speed.
Caleb Poulter needed a rest last week, but looks like a 150-200 game player to me. Beau McCreery has kicked 12 goals in 10 games and seems to relish the tough stuff, with 38 tackles.
Lynch has been at the club since 2017, and needed time to develop, but he has a future if he can get opportunities at Collingwood.
We haven’t really seen Reef McInnes and Liam McMahon, but both look likely prospects, while Will Kelly needs some luck with his body and must play back – not forward – to work alongside Darcy Moore as his mentor.
Isaac Quaynor is averaging 18 disposals, is a good rebound defender who needs to tidy up his ball use. Josh Daicos also has a future, as we have seen.
BLUES’ GENERATION NEXT
Sam Walsh is only three years into his AFL career, but he is already an A grader. He has taken his game to a new level and plays with a win-at-all-costs mentality. He is captain material.
Harry McKay is on track to win this year’s Coleman medal and if he can win the battle with his body, Charlie Curnow has the potential to do the same.
Tom De Koning has upside and the Blues need to put more game time into him.
Liam Stocker might end up being the midfielder the Blues need, even if he is playing a role in defence at the moment, while Paddy Dow has recently shown a glimmer of the talent the Blues know he has.
Sam Petrevski-Seton needs to get fitter which will help his consistency, Zac Fisher needs some luck with his body, while the likes of Matt Cottrell, Matthew Owies and Luke Parks, the club’s only debutant so far this season, have played some OK footy.
Teague must give Josh Honey a chance. He has great speed, an attribute that Darcy Fogarty doesn’t possess. Eddie Betts has had a stellar career, but this year will see him out.
It’s obvious the current match committee doesn’t rate Lochie O’Brien, so he is better off requesting a trade to further his career. Matt Kennedy is tough and uncompromising but he is not good or quick enough to play midfield at AFL level.
THE TOP LINERS
Collingwood marginally outnumbers Carlton for top liners, when taking into account form over the last two seasons.
Walsh heads the list for the Blues, but key defenders Jacob Weitering and Liam Jones also deserve plenty of plaudits.
You might question Jones. Don’t! He has one of the best one-on-one records of defenders in the competition.
Jones has won 40 per cent of his one-on-one contests this season, neutralised 48 per cent and has lost only 12 per cent. That means he loses only one in 10 of his one-on-one contests. That’s elite.
Patrick Cripps hasn’t reached the heights of early in his career, but his form will spike again.
McKay is a focal point up forward, while Charlie Curnow is eyeing a return through the VFL.
Adam Saad has had some challenges in his first season at the Blues, but he will be an important player into the future.
From a Collingwood perspective, Pendlebury is still producing some very good football and has been a superstar. Steele Sidebottom has been down on form this year, but he can get it back.
Taylor Adams might well be Collingwood’s captain next season.
Grundy is a good ruckman, Jeremy Howe can get back to his best if his body allows him, Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore and Jamie Elliott should be priorities in terms of chasing new deals; and Jack Crisp and Brayden Maynard have turned themselves into elite players.
It’s fair to say both Collingwood and Carlton have failed to live up to their own expectations in 2021. Internally, both clubs expected to play finals, but will miss out.
The Blues have won one more game than the Magpies – but that might change if Collingwood wins on Sunday, as I expect them to.
Going forward, I slightly favour the Magpies’ long-range prospects, but unless both clubs are prepared to be bold, take some risks and dare to be different, I can’t see either challenging for a premiership within the next three years.
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