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Ray Thomas’ inside mail: Back James Cummings’ runners with confidence at Rosehill on Rosebud Day

Godolphin maestro James Cummings will have a better view of realistic spring carnival goals for Tarpaulin and Tom Kitten after they race at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Ray Thomas
4 min read
August 16, 2024 - 4:00PM
Punters Previews Rosehill for 17-08-24

Godolphin maestro James Cummings will have a better view of realistic spring carnival goals for Tarpaulin and Tom Kitten after they race at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Tarpaulin has been a winter find for the Cummings stable and is chasing a hat-trick of wins in the Listed $200,000 The Rosebud (1100m).

Tom Kitten, a Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes winner, has been trialling brilliantly ahead of his return in the Precise Air Spring Preview Handicap (1400m).

Cummings said although there was good depth to The Rosebud field, Tarpaulin “could not have been any more impressive coming through those races lately”.

“I think Tarpaulin (55kg) is quite nicely suited by the handicaps,’’ Cummings said. “He’ll be poised in behind the frontrunners there and ready to let loose.’’

• Ray & Duff’s Rosehill tips, analysis for Saturday: $4.20 best bet

Tom Kitten failed to place in five starts at the top level during autumn although he did finish fourth in the Randwick Guineas and ATC Australian Derby.

But Tom Kitten has been gelded since and he has looked very sharp in his recent barrier trials including a win over stablemate Zardozi at Rosehill last week.

“His work at the public trials has been every bit as good as his work at home at Osborne Park,” Cummings said of Tom Kitten.

“It’s a race not without depth, there are a number of interesting runners here. It’s a spring preview handicap for a reason and we’ll get a bit of a preview to see what we’ve got.

“From the good draw (barrier one), he doesn’t have to do any work early. He’ll be a number of lengths off the lead, but he’s been letting down in his work and we’ve got to expect a good run from Tom Kitten.”

• Professional punter James Molony’s race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill on Saturday

Cummings said a “big effort” from Tom Kitten on Saturday would go a long way to “locking up Tom Kitten as one of our key Epsom (Handicap) chances.’’

In TAB Fixed Odds betting, Tom Kitten is at $4.20 behind Amor Victorious at $3.90 favourite.

The Cummings stable’s other Rosehill runners are all at the top of betting – Tarpaulin is $3.40 for The Rosebud, Lost is at $2.80 for the James Squire Handicap (1100m) and Sequestered is $3.70 for the Kia Ora Prague Handicap (1400m).

At Caulfield, Godolphin also has the feature race favourite with Pericles at $2.90 for the Group 2 $300,000 Lawrence Stakes (1400m).

• Rosehill Turf Talk: Gelding the making of Tom Kitten?

“He’s come back well and is feeling pretty good,’’ Cummings said. “He’s a chance to graduate all the way to Group 1 level and there are good targets along the way.

“We are a bit guarded about what his main target is so far, because there’s an abundance of opportunities as he can be effective in races from 1400m to 2000m.

“We’ll be guided on how well he’s going at the time and where the opposition are.”

• Shayne O’Cass’s Rosehill tips

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ROSEHILL BIG BETS, MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Dawn Service $3.10-$2.30, Autumn Glow $4-$3.40 with bets of $3,000 at $4, $2,000 e/w at $3.80/$2
Race 2: Peace Officer $7-$6, Dr Evil $10-$8
Race 3: Intervarsity $4.40-$3.80, Lisztomania $6-$5, Super Norwest $8-$6
Race 4: Lost $3.30-$2.70, Piastri $4.20-$3.90, Gitalong $10-$4.80, Way To The Stars $10-$5
Race 5: Sequestered $6-$4, I Am Famous $4.60-$4.40, Nanshe $6-$5.50
Race 6: Tarpaulin $3.90-$3.40 with bets of $2,200 at $3.90, $2,100 at $3.80, Brave One $6-$5.50, Shangri La Express $13-$7, Astapor $17-$10
Race 7: Terra Mater $5-$4.40, Kazou $5-$4.80, Cavalier Charles $6.50-$5.50, Kibou $9-$6.50, Bubba’s Boy $9-$7.50
Race 8: Tom Kitten $4.40-$4.20, Amor Victorious $15-$3.90 with a place bet of $2,210 at $2.30
Race 9: Etna Rosso $5.50-$4.80 with a bet of $2,290 at $5.50
Race 10: Up And Under $7-$5, El Rocko $14-$6, Lord Of Biscay $14-$7.50, Noble Conqueror $12-$9

• Saturday Market Movers: $15 to $4.60 firmer at Rosehill

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EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 3,14,15,22
Race 4: 8,10
Race 5: 5,8,9
Race 6: 2,4,7,8

QUADDIE

Race 7: 4,5,6,9
Race 8: 4,6,10
Race 9: 9,11,14,16
Race 10: 4,8,15

• Berry to see specialist as he races clock to ride at Rosehill

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PRICE CHECK
Boom first starter Autumn Glow (race 1) is the best-backed runner on the Rosehill program, She has firmed from $4 into $3.40 after bets of $3,000 at $4 and $2,000 each way at $3.80/$2. Tarpaulin (race 6) has been confidently backed in The Rosebud and has firmed from $3.90 to $3.40 favouritism after bets of $2,200 at $3.90 and $2,100 at $3.80.

• ‘Magnificent Seven’ to step out at Rosehill

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TRIAL POINTERS
Getafix (race 1) resumed with a solid fourth to Mayfair in a strong form race. He then went back to the barrier trials and produced an eye-catching effort at Hawkesbury last week when he finished the closest of seconds in a 1000m heat without being tested at any stage. He will strip fitter for this race.

Gatsby’s (race 6) has been primed for The Rosebud with two recent barrier trials including his impressive effort when he ran down Brave One near the finish of their 900m heat last week. Gatsby’s looked to have plenty in reserve under James McDonald in his trial win in good time. The Chris Waller-trained colt, a son of super sire Snitzel, did win his debut race at Canterbury on a soft track last season.

• Gatsby’s great chance to show spring credentials

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SECTIONAL STARS
Nosey Parker (race 4) stormed home to win at Rosehill over 1100m last start, producing impressive closing sectionals of 33.36s (600m) and 11.39s (200m). His sectional splits were the second fastest of the day.

Lost (race 4) unleashed a brilliant burst of acceleration under 59kg to win when resuming at Warwick Farm. She ran her final 600m in 34.2s and her closing 200m sectional in 11.77s – both times were the best splits of the meeting.

• McEvoy on a winner with budding star at Rosehill

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BEST BET
Lost (race 4) resumed at Warwick Farm on the final day of last season and was very impressive coming from last, storming through the field and scoring by a widening margin or more than two lengths. She ran fast sectionals to win that day, drops 1.5kg to 57.5kg, James McDonald stays with her, and she is protecting an unbeaten second-up record.

• Waller’s one-time Melbourne Cup fancy Francesco Guardi to resume at Rosehill

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BEST VALUE
One Aye (race 9) is racing in the best form of her career including a fast finishing win at Randwick before an unlucky third in the Forbes Cup. She drops 4kg here, handles soft tracks and is great each way appeal around $19.

Originally published as Ray Thomas’ inside mail: Back James Cummings’ runners with confidence at Rosehill on Rosebud Day

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