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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for 2024 Spring Champion Stakes day at Royal Randwick

Ron Dufficy says he’s ‘very keen’ on his best bet – which goes around at a very backable price – at Randwick on Saturday. Get Duff and Ray Thomas’s tips and analysis for Spring Champion Stakes Day.

Ray Thomas
11 min read
October 25, 2024 - 10:31AM
Hold All Tickets – Punters (Episode 9) 26-10-24

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances across the 10 races for the Spring Champion Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick and the Cox Plate at The Valley.

• James Molony’s expert tips, race-by-race analysis for Randwick on Saturday

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Race 6 No.6 DEMOCRACY MANIFEST

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Race 1: Kirkham Plate (1000m)

Ron Dufficy: We’ll learn more about this race as it gets closer but I thought COMEDY (2) was very good in his two trials. He won his first trial and was ridden much quieter in that second trial this week and I thought he was terrific running through the line so I am happy to be with him. I think this filly from Melbourne could be the danger – ARABELLA STAR (6). She looked very sharp in her two trial wins in Victoria and she is in a good two-year-old stable. CHICAMA (1) looked strong through the line in his only trial and the market place is really showing him respect. GAELIGE (3) is similar to his stablemate Comedy. He’s been in the same two trials and has shown talent in his own right.

Ray Thomas: THE LITTLE GENERAL (5) was wide without cover in his 740m trial and was still there at the finish going under narrowly. He’s drawn well, should settle on speed and will take catching. ARABELLA STAR (6) has won both her trials in Melbourne impressively and looks a ready-made two-year-old. I agree COMEDY (2) closed off the Randwick heat to beat The Little General and has since trialled well again indicating he will be hard to beat. CHICAMA (1) is superbly bred and there was a lot to like about his trial effort.

• The Little General to evoke memories of the master, Tommy Smith

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Race 2: Midway Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: I think MISS HADES (2) is good value here. She caught the eye in a harder race late when first-up over an unsuitable distance. She just has to stay fresh enough and find a back to follow, and I think she is going to be hard to hold out. LET’S GO AGAIN (14) is the danger. She is a mare that is likeable, doing a good job, puts herself on speed and appears to have upside. PAJANTI (3) was first-up for five weeks last time and was a bit disappointing but her form prior to that was good enough. She gets a set of blinkers today. MOGUL MONARCH (11) is fit and well, is lightly-raced and going well.

Thomas: MOGUL MONARCH (11) did his own “Bella Nipotina” impersonation when sitting on speed, three-wide without cover before powering clear to win easily at Hawkesbury in fast time over 1100m. Consistent sprinter racing in top form and although up in grade here he drops 3.5kg. FRENCH RULER (15) is lightly raced but shows ability and will be fitter for his strong first-up win at Newcastle. OAKFIELD TRIUMPH (13) hit the line strongly to just miss at Port Macquarie and is over the odds. LET’S GO AGAIN (14) is an improving mare and should get the run of the race from her favourable barrier.

• She’s Due: Seib plots Group 1 breakthrough in Spring Champion

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Race 3: TAB Highway (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m with VOLCANIC LOVE (4) who has the Highway experience now. He is having first try at a mile but I suspect he is right in the finish here. I think MAGIC PHAROAH (10) is the danger. She was solid with a big weight there first-up and she has run very well at this track and distance in the past so she has to be respected. STRAIGHT FIRE (17)’s past two Highway runs are good and he sets up well from the draw. The best of the rest I thought was maybe DON STEFANO (1) charging home late here nice and fresh as he has some middle distance talent.

Thomas: CABLE EXPRESS (7) is lightly-raced but promising and resumed with an even fourth at Goulburn. He’s a big horse and after settling third on the fence, he didn’t get a lot of galloping room and will be improved by the run. Drawn well here and just needs even luck from the turn to be in the finish. VOLCANIC LOVE (4) was placed at Eagle Farm last start which is usually good form for these races. STRAIGHT FIRE (17) appreciated getting back on to a drier track and her fast finishing third in a Rosehill Highway last start was impossible to miss. TANGLEWOOD JIMMY (14) has drawn awkwardly but he’s a genuine sprinter.

• ‘It doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense’: Champion status at stake on Saturday

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Race 4: Brian Crowley Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I have swayed to HIGH OCTANE (1) here. He was slow out but getting through the line very well in the Roman Consul Stakes and that has to be good form for this. I think he’ll be hard to beat. AMAZING EAGLE (8) is a big query. Off a long break but two lovely trials and although he is still a maiden, he has got a lot of talent. SMASHING TIME (4) resumed with a win as a long odds-on favourite and there are some strong formlines with him but I just thought he was short enough. I like what MANOS (6) did first-up and he gets a charmed run from barrier one.

Thomas: I see this the same way, Ronnie. HIGH OCTANE (1) was following Switzerland in the run but couldn’t match that colt’s superior acceleration when sixth in the Roman Consul Stakes. High Octane took a while to become balanced in the straight but I liked the way he was doing his best work on the line. He will be better suited at Randwick. AMAZING EAGLE (8) is talented but is still chasing a maiden win after being placed in each of his three starts including the Black Opal last year. His two recent barrier trial wins have been brilliant and he will go close. SMASHING TIME (4) won well first-up at the provincials but he has the talent to be very competitive in this race. KING OF ROSEAU (2) ran a blinder behind top colts Growing Empire and First Settler in the Poseidon Stakes then was never on the track last start and deserves another chance.

• How a quick-thinking jockey helped save star sprinter’s life

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Race 5: Callander-Presnell (1600m)

Dufficy: I am going with JUST PARTY (2). I feel he would have beaten Anode in one more bound there last start at the 1400m. I think he does no work from barrier one and he’s hard to hold out. The danger could be DECONSTRUCTION (4). He’s an improving horse in the right stable who has had a nice grounding for this – he is a winning chance. ANODE (1) is short enough. He fought hard getting back on track winning last start but just has to do that at the mile now. DEPTH OF CHARACTER (6) showed plenty in the winter and I am wary of him bouncing back from the cardiac arrhythmia last time.

Thomas: JUST PARTY (2) has improved with racing this spring and came from last on the turn to just missed reeling in ANODE (1) in the Tapp-Craig last start. The step up to 1600m will suit Just Party and he looks the one to beat. Anode led for home, kicked clear and looked likely to win easily only to get tired late allowing Just Party to get very close on the line. Anode has to prove he can run a strong 1600m. DEPTH OF CHARACTER (6) has disappointed in two runs this spring but there has been excuses, as you pointed out Ronnije, and he is worth another chance. DECONSTRUCTION (4) worked to the line well when a close third to Anode last start and he won’t have an issue getting to 1600m.

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Race 6: Craven Plate (1800m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (6), Ray. I think it is a perfect race for him as he is fourth-up, there is a bit of speed up front, he comes off a run in the Epsom and will be hard to beat. NEW ENDEAVOUR (10) is his danger. He should stride across on speed here and looks the right style and shape of race for him. FAWKNER PARK (2) is five weeks since reportedly not handling Caulfield. His best probably wins this so it is pretty well over to you if you want to be forgiving. It was a non-event for LINDERMANN (3) in the Alan Brown Stakes last time after being dragged back and having no hope from a wide draw. His trials were good prior so he bears some respect.

Thomas: DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (6) was back at the rear of the Epsom field on the turn but he ran on strongly late for eighth to Ceolwulf. He gets out to 1800m for only the second time in his career, his previous attempt resulting in a close, luckless fourth in the Five Diamonds. This is his chance. NEW ENDEAVOUR (10) was a close second in the Doomben Cup earlier this year and has been improved by three runs from a spell. FAWKNER PARK (2) has had an interrupted preparation this spring but if he is anywhere near right he would blow this field away. REDIENER (5) had no luck in the Epsom and is definitely worth another chance.

• Spring Champion, Cox Plate expert tips

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Race 7: Spring Champion Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: I just like the racing style of EL CASTELLO (1). He has been untouchable in three wins this preparation. He has a huge advantage with that style that he’s got and he’s hard to beat again. HENLEIN (3) has a little gear change and I have been waiting for this horse for this race. Obviously I would have liked to have seen a little bit more last start but surely he can race closer from the draw. SWIFTFALCON (2)’s main problem is giving a big start from a wide draw. He will probably have to go back early but if things fall into place he is hard to hold out. DUVANA (5) still has something to offer and I thought he was the upset horse.

Thomas: I’m also leaning to EL CASTELLO (1). He has won all three races this spring including the Gloaming Stakes last start when he won with authority. El Castello will have no problem going to 2000m, his tactical speed means he will settle in a forward position in a race that is devoid of tempo, and he’s the one to beat. SWIFTFALCON (2) gets back in his races and ran on strongly for second in the Gloaming. Talented three-year-old who will be giving his rivals a start on the turn but will be finishing faster than anything else in the race. HENLEIN (3) was following Swiftfalcon through the race and could not make any impression when sixth in the Gloaming. Randwick will suit him better but the lack of speed up front is a concern. RAG QUEEN (9) ran well to just miss a place in the Gloaming and she should run a strong 2000m.

• Doyle seeks Spring Champion checkmate with Queen

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Race 8: The Invitation (1400m)

Dufficy: I want to be very forgiving with ZOUGOTCHA (1) last start. It was not in her make-up to be running so inconclusively. So she’s had five weeks, a beautiful trial since and I just think her class takes her a long way here. Form-lines everywhere here so it is a good race. MAGIC TIME (2) is a very good mare, loves Randwick and did enough first-up. She just needs something to happen from that draw as the map looks tricky. It’s the opposite for MAKARENA (7). She goes from an outside draw to the rails barrier which she loves and she stalks this speed. OLENTIA (5) was terrific winning first-up, it was easy work, and she has always promised to be right up to this level. I have just got a few little queries about the form-line in that race.

Thomas: OLENTIA (5) was monstrous first-up in The Nivison. She had only one trial going into that race and was above herself in condition but her class and impressive acceleration swept her to an easy win. She’s very talented and will be improved. ZOUGOTCHA (1) can give the Waller stable the big-race quinella. The three-time Group 1 winner had excuses for her indifferent last start effort and will take beating her. MAKARENA (7) was beaten by a wide barrier last start but she won the Golden Pendant impressively before that and has drawn ideally on the rails here. MAGIC TIME (2) won the All Aged Stakes last autumn and was solid first-up in the Gilgai Stakes.

• Widden forgives Zougotcha flop ahead of The Invitation

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Race 9: Five Diamonds Prelude (1500m)

Dufficy: I am going with the Queenslander, YELLOW BRICK (7). He’s a smart horse and is third-up here off a win. I just think the race sets up well with all these leaders up front that he is going to be closer to midfield and ready to pounce. TERRITORY EXPRESS (12) is similar. He doesn’t help himself with slow starts but no one missed his first-up run and if the breaks go his way, he is right there. AMOR VICTORIOUS (6) is sneaking up in the weights now and he has got a stablemate to keep him honest up front in IKNOWASTAR (11) but they will both run very well.

Thomas: AMOR VICTORIOUS (6) returned to winning form leading throughout in the Shannon Stakes. He looked under siege at the top of the straight but warded off persistent challenges to win well. Drawn to advantage and will be hard to run down. YELLOW BRICK (7) was dominant at Eagle Farm last start and rates highly. TERRITORY EXPRESS (12) got to the line strongly to be just behind the placegetters when resuming in the Alan Brown Stakes, he will strip fitter and is a definite chance. IKNOWASTAR (11) comes out of the same race where he ran fifth after leading for home and he will also be better for that run.

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Race 10: Filante Hcp (1600m)

Dufficy: I still haven’t dropped off COMMUNIST (4). His form looks ordinary but not much went right behind Desert Lightning at Sandown last start and now that he is in a race like this, down in class from an inside draw where he can race closer, I think he is going to run a bold race. I don’t mind the back-up with SOUNDS OF HEAVEN (9), particularly with the blinkers. She’s had excuses in both runs back. RIYAZAN (10) may be a 10-year-old but he is in dazzling form and this is a beautiful race for him. KINTYRE (5) never runs badly and is always in the numbers.

Thomas: KINTYRE (5) will find this easier than the Epsom when he ran ninth after being up with the leaders on the turn. His two previous runs were very good and this is a very suitable race. RIYAZAN (10) always goes around at big odds but he is genuine and can win without surprising. COMMUNIST (4) is a Group 1 winner over this course and distance, and is suited by a firmer track. SOUNDS OF HEAVEN (9) wasn’t beaten far last week and is ready to improve.

• Begg banking on Rawiller to produce some Magic

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THE VALLEY

Race 9: Cox Plate (2040m)

Dufficy: I feel if PROGNOSIS (2) reproduces what he did in Hong Kong behind Romantic Warrior it will be good enough to go close. BROADSIDING (8) gets another chance especially if they are much more positive early. VIA SISTINA (7) has to be among the top chances while how can you rule out PRIDE OF JENNI (6)? I thought she did more than enough last week.

Thomas: I have gone with PRIDE OF JENNI (6). She was magnificent in defeat behind Ceolwulf in the King Charles III Stakes last week, backs up at The Valley where she led and dominated two starts back. They can get to her but getting past her is never easy. She will look the winner for a long way. BROADSIDING (8) is a super colt and he will be powering home with his light weight. VIA SISTINA (7) was superb winning the Turnbull Stakes and she will be finishing strongly. PROGNOSIS (2) is obviously a top class horse if you take a line through his efforts against Romantic Warrior.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for 2024 Spring Champion Stakes day at Royal Randwick

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