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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Randwick on Saturday

Ron Dufficy is banking on a former champ – plus a future champ – delivering big for punters on Epsom Day at Randwick on Sunday. Get Ron and Ray Thomas’s tips and race-by-race analysis.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
October 4, 2024 - 1:16PM

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the big-race chances on a bumper Epsom Day meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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• EXPERT TIPS: Professional punter James Molony’s tips, race-by-race analysis for Randwick on Saturday

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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1800m)

Ron Dufficy: I don’t mind the lightly-raced import HUMANITY (2) here. His Aussie debut was good, making ground late behind El Castello. He should come on well from that and the extra distance suits. FLYING BANDIT (11) caught the eye in the same race which looks the lead-up. He’s a young lightly-raced improver and it was hard to miss that second-up run. KINGSTON CHARM (13) maps beautifully just behind the speed here and she’s got her foot right back on the till. HOOLIGAN TOMMY (17) is the one with different form. He is lightly-raced and out a gap in them at Canberra last start. He could be a horse on the rise.

Ray Thomas: I like HOOLIGAN TOMMY (17). He was given his chance in the ATC Australian Derby earlier this year but wasn’t up to them that day but he’s returned a stronger, improving racehorse this spring as he’s demonstrated with impressive wins at Scone and Canberra. This is obviously tougher again but he’s a progressive horse, well-weighted and drawn to get the right run. AGITA (5) is ready to win. He worked home well at Warwick Farm over 2140m to finish fourth, comes back slightly in trip but is very fit. FLYING BANDIT (11) gets back in his races but he has a strong finish. KERVETTE (14) would have been close to top pick but for his horror draw.

• GROUP 1 TIPS: Racenet, Punters experts present their Epsom, Flight, Metropolitan and Turnbull tips plus betting strategies for Saturday

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RACE 2: BREEDERS PLATE (1000m)

Dufficy: The two-year-olds are always interesting. I am with TUSCANY (10) in an even race. He is a high priced yearling who jumped well in his trial, was eased back and hit the line really nicely to win. James McDonald sticks, he’ll be hard enough to hold out. TEMPESTUOUS (9) is the one at odds. I thought he showed good speed and moved well in his trial. He wasn’t under full pressure late in his trial so I’ll say he has got something up the sleeve. NORTH ENGLAND (5) looked like a natural two-year-old winning his heat and best of the rest is RIPLEY (8) who might be more of a later-on type but he looks to have real good quality about him.

Thomas: NORTH ENGLAND (5) was very professional in his trial win, jumping well then finding the fence to lead early before dashing away in the straight to win by the biggest margin of the official two-year-old trials session. His time wasn’t the fastest of the day but he wasn’t pushed out to the finish. Drawn well and should be hard to beat. TUSCANY (10) did run the equal fastest time of the trials when he finished strongly wide out to win his heat well. KING KIRK (4) won his trial nicely and I liked the way RIPLEY (8) stretched out late in his heat.

• MARKET MOVERS: Randwick black type runner $6 to $3.20

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RACE 3: GIMCRACK STAKES (1000m)

Dufficy: I am pretty keen on BEL MERCI (3) here. She’s a home-bred who I really liked the way she went about her work behind O’ OLE (9) and she has a lovely draw. I think she’s the one with the most improvement and will be very hard to beat. ICARIAN DREAM (6) was very stylish in her trial scoring with something up the sleeve and looked good. She is well fancied, understandably so off that trial win. TUPAKARA (15) was the best out of her heat and I think she might have something to offer. Best of the rest is MEMO (8) who I probably would have tipped from a better draw. She was very powerful winning her trial and the time was solid. It’s just the draw – where does she get to?

Thomas: ICARIAN DREAM (6) was a touch slow away, moved up three wide and cruised clear to win her heat without being tested at any stage. Her trial effort was particularly impressive and she’s drawn a favourable gate. MEMO (8) got back in her trial but lengthened stride generously wide out to win her heat well. Drawn off the track but watch for her late. AUTUMN BLONDE (2) ran second in MEMO (8)’s heat and looks to have ability. O’ OLE (9) ran fast time to win her trial but has drawn wide.

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RACE 4: DULCIFY STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: A very very tough race, this one there are a lot of chances. I am going with JUST PARTY (2). It was obviously a forgive run first-up when he had cardiac arrhythmia and he bounced back last time with a good effort. I think he can peak third-up here. SWIFTFALCON (3) is a nice horse. He was raw and good in three runs as a two-year-old then resumed with a big weight and was impressive winning in Melbourne. MEDIA WORLD (4) has looked above himself so he should peak after a couple of runs under his belt and be right there. JOHNNY THE KID (7) is a maiden winner last start but he does get control of the lead here and could be hard to run down.

Thomas: JOHNNY THE KID (7) is coming off that maiden win at Kensington over 1550m but I thought it was a tough frontrunning effort. The further the race went, the stronger he got and he was dominant on the line. This is obviously a big jump in grade but he might be able to get control of the race tempo and prove tough to run down. SWIFTFALCON (3) is talented. He was impressive winning at Rosehill back in June then resumed at Flemington and finishing powerfully to score, running brilliant closing sectionals. He will be finishing strongly again and just might prove too strong for this lot. JUST PARTY (2) was beaten less than a length when fourth in the Ming Dynasty Quality and that form reads well for this race. INTERJECTION (6) has won successive starts at the provincials and stays under notice.

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RACE 5: ALINTA ENERGY HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: I am with CHICA MOJITO (12) here. I like the way she is placed with 52kg on her back. She did a good job in the Firestorm race first-up and that form has been franked with Firestorm winning again. CHICA MOJITO (12) is in a winnable race. FLOATING (4) is at his peak fourth-up, off a win at this track and distance last start and he should at least hold that form, if not improve. OVERRIDING (8) gets a nice on-speed run and was a much improved run there second-up and SNOWMAN (10), if he puts his right foot forward, it’s a perfect race for him.’’

Thomas: This is the first race we are in agreement, Ronnie, with CHICA MOJITO (12). She resumed with an eye-catching effort when charging through along the rail to just miss behind Firestorm at Rosehill. As you pointed out, Firestorm won again last week to underline the strength of the form. CHICA MOJITO (12), who was stakes placed last season, will appreciate the Randwick mile course and gets in with only 52kg. She’s the one to beat. SNOWMAN (10) has been improved by two runs from a spell and will get all the favours from his inside draw. ST LAWRENCE (5) is always thereabouts in this grade and FLOATING (4) excels over this course and distance.

• Portelli eyes Epsom upset with underrated Kintyre

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RACE 6: FLIGHT STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: With Autumn Glow out, I am with the stablemate LADY SHENANDOAH (4). Her formlines look great from that Ming Dynasty now beating Mayfair who was excellent running third in the Golden Rose last week. SNOW IN MAY (2) did a fantastic job way up in class second-up, indicating even more to come from here. MISS BUSSLINGER (6) is not the worst in this race each-way here. I have been waiting for her to step up in distance so be wary of her. There is nothing wrong with LAZZURA (3)’s two runs back and she gives the impression the mile should be okay.

Thomas: Autumn Glow’s withdrawal is a shame but it does open up this race. I’m with SNOW IN MAY (2) who came from last on the turn to finish second in the Tea Rose Stakes behind Autumn Glow and will be better suited over this course and distance. She had won her previous two starts impressively and is a very promising filly. POWERS OF OPAL (9) is still a maiden but is a filly with obvious staying potential and watch for her late. LADY SHENANDOAH (4) was very good first-up beating the colts and geldings in the Ming Dynasty Quality and although she is getting to 1600m quickly, she’s very promising. HARLEM QUEEN (7) has been strong late in successive provincial wins.

• Autumn blow: Star filly injured, ruled out of Flight Stakes

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RACE 7: PREMIERE STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I think it is GIGA KICK (1)’s day, Ray. I thought he did enough with excuses and the bias against him first-up. I loved his trial between runs and I think he is very hard to hold out. THINK ABOUT IT (2) is his danger. The reigning Everest champ is set to make a statement here. No knock on BELLA NIPOTINA (7). She is an incredible mare who is just so durable and dependable and she’ll do her thing again. MAZU (3) was pretty good first-up and there might be still some life in him yet

Thomas: This is going to be a great spectacle. I’m leaning to THINK ABOUT IT (2). He won the Premiere Stakes-The Everest double last year and although he hasn’t won a race since, he has looked his old self in two recent barrier trials. He needs to win or go very close to secure an Everest slot. GIGA KICK (1) has made significant improvement since his comeback run in the Concorde Stakes and his trial between runs was impressive. How can you knock BELLA NIPOTINA (7)? She just missed catching I Am Me in the Concorde and her sectionals were outstanding. MAZU (3) ran a great race first-up in The Shorts and will make his own luck up on speed.

• Giga Kick to take aim at another The Everest title

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RACE 8: THE METROPOLITAN (2400m)

Dufficy: I like UNUSUAL LEGACY (21). I have been on his back all the way through and I think this is his Grand Final. I love Chris Waller on Grand Final day and in a race with a lot of chances, I have to go his way. I am going to save on ZARDOZI (10). I want to stick with her. I thought she was a bit better there last start. Up in distance now, no weight, I think she is well-placed. FUTURE HISTORY (11), from the Ciaron Maher stable, has to be respected third-up now. A big moment for young Zac Wadick and he certainly deserves this opportunity on Future History. LAND LEGEND (14) has been ticking along beautifully. Whether he is one run short I am not sure but he will run boldly here.

Thomas: UNUSUAL LEGACY (21), the third emergency, has secured a start and comes off a very good effort at Rosehill last week when narrowly beaten by Firestorm over 1900m at Rosehill. He drops 8kg to 50kg and will get every chance from his good gate. He’s inexperienced and hasn’t raced over this distance before but everything he does suggests he will run the trip out strongly. ZARDOZI (10) won the VRC Oaks and ran second in the ATC Australian Oaks last season which underlines her staying ability. She’s had a solid grounding for this race and comes in nicely with 52kg. FUTURE HISTORY (11) has been placed in the Heatherlie Handicap and Naturalism Stakes which is good form for this race. SERPENTINE (3) ran well first-up, he makes his own luck racing on speed and will be in this for a long way.

• Clinton Payne’s Metropolitan tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 9: TAB EPSOM HANDICAP (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on CEOLWULF (7). The four-year-old has a lovely set up back from 2000m at the right stage of his preparation and I think he just about gets them late here. ROYAL PATRONAGE (2), I know he is not well weighted, but he backed up his Tramway win with another top effort last start. He needs luck from the draw but he does have a little bit of gate speed. BERKSHIRE SHADOW (10) is the best long shot. He was above himself first-up, then it was a good toughen up run last time so he is ready to go third-up. KOVALICA (4) has drawn well and he’ll have no excuses today.

Thomas: This is a deep Epsom. ROYAL PATRONAGE (2) has impressed in both Australian starts, winning the Tramway Stakes on debut then running very competitively when third to Fangirl in the 7 Stakes. He’s weighted up to his best and is drawn wide but he’s all class. KINTYRE (18) is a terrific lightweight chance. He was three-wide wide throughout but still finished a close fourth in the Bill Ritchie Handicap last start. He drops 4kg to just 50kg, he’s going to get the right run and is over the odds. CEOLWULF (7) looks very hard to beat. He made a race of it with Eliyass in the Kingston Town Stakes last start so that 2000m run will stand him in good stead for the Randwick mile. KOVALICA (4) hasn’t won for 18 months but there were good signs with his fast finishing in the Tramway.

• Clinton Payne’s Epsom tips, runner-by-runner form assessment

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RACE 10: TAB HANDICAP (1200m)

Dufficy: I am going to have a little speck on CORNICHE (1) first-up as a gelding. His two barrier trials are great so this grade of race – a Benchmark race with a claim – I think he is the forgotten horse in the market. MORAVIA (5) got his confidence up last start. He has got a lovely draw to map well. BRIASA (21) has an awful draw. Might have to give a bit of a start from that draw but he is untapped and unbeaten so far – we don’t know how good he is. OSTRAKA (4) was terrific first-up over a distance I thought he would find too short. Just hoping he can keep up from that inner draw rather than being shuffled back.

Thomas: MORAVIA (5) returned to form with a dominant effort over this course and distance two weeks ago. James McDonald stays with Moravia who is drawn to get the run of the race. CORNICHE (1) was ridden out to reel in Think About It in a recent Canterbury barrier trial and he looks primed to sprint well fresh. ELSON BOY (12) is getting ready for The Kosciuszko in two weeks but he’s very genuine and will be competitive. OSTRAKA (4) unleashed a powerful finishing surge to win at Rosehill first-up and can only be improved. BRIASA (21) goes nearly top pick if he gets a start.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Randwick on Saturday

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