Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $7 ‘absolute certainty’ at Flemington on Derby Day

Form expert Tony Thomas believes there is a bona fide special at Flemington on Saturday and the horse is great value at $7.

Golden Slipper winner Shinzo is Tony Thomas’ top pick in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

A great day’s racing and plenty of great value to be found as well.

RACE 1

I’m keen on the NSW visitor INFLUENTIAL. Lot to like about his win at Kembla when resuming. He looked like he still had plenty to learn but loved his acceleration late to win with something in hand at the end. Well-bred type who was gelded before his resumption and looks even better suited by the big track and extra distance here. Think $4.40 is a fair enough price. BRAVE MEAD has the runs on the board but I know connections had a query on him running out 1400m last time and now he has to get the 1600m. And he won’t get the same economical run from a wider draw. Still, he is classy and a definite danger.

SUGGESTED BET: Influential to win at $4.20.

TIPS: Influential 1, Brave Mead 2, Heman 3, Rovno Amber 4.

RACE 2

LADIES MAN is an absolute certainty. And I can’t believe we can get $7 at the moment. Fantastic. This bloke was a superb Group 1 winner in NZ last start, circling the field, hitting the front a bit too soon but still able to ward off all challenges. He has twice placed at 3200m in NZ, so he will relish the extra distance here. He will sit off pace and then unwind from the 600m and his class will see him win. Just too good for them I reckon. Get on now as he could start much shorter. ATHABASCAN was no doubt unlucky in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and should have finished much closer. He is very short for a horse who has only won THREE from 20 but he does hold a win over Serpentine to his credit.

SUGGESTED BET: Ladies Man to win at $7.50.

TIPS: Ladies Man 1, Athabascan 2, Mostly Cloudy 3, Kalapour 4.

RACE 3

I want to give RED CARD one more chance. She hasn’t seen out the 1200m at her last two but the last time she was at this trip she beat home Airman who has since won in good company. I like the fact she has drawn out here as she won’t have to kick up to hold a spot and can just cruise on speed. She will be hard to catch and $6.50 is a good price. ROSE QUARTZ is good down the straight. Barrier one may not be ideal but if she gets the luck at the right time, she’ll go close.

SUGGESTED BET: Red Card to win at $6.50

TIPS: Red Card 1, Rose Quartz 2, Hypothetical 3, Willinga Beast 4.

RACE 4

Hard to believe a horse who has only been unplaced twice over this course and distance can be $10 in a grade of race that suits him. IT’SOURTIME’S last win was in Group 3 class down the 1200m here when he was favourite. He was down the track at Randwick last start but he didn’t get much luck in the straight and he actually ran through the line well. This is much better for him and like the fact he will zoom down the outside. Big hope. TRIPLE MISSILE ran into a hot Star Patrol here last time and will be much fitter. C’EST MAGIQUE will improve.

SUGGESTED BET: It’sourtime each-way at $10

TIPS: It’sourtime 1, Triple Missile 2, C’est Magique 3, Spacewalk 4.

RACE 5

Very keen on ZARDOZI. I think she will win this and then win the Oaks. Gave her rivals a lesson in the Edward Manifold and she will welcome the step up in trip. Has a touch of class and looks too good. Happy to take the $2.40 now. AMAZONIAN LASS had to cross from a wide draw to lead in the same race and thought she boxed on well. She’ll do a similar thing here and can take running down again.

Suggested bet: Zardozi to win at $2.40

Tips: Zardozi 1, Amazonian Lass 2, Subrising 3, Konasana 4.

RACE 6

SHINZO may be ready to find his best form now. He was OK in The Everest last start, running through the line well enough and this is much more to his liking. Thought his jumpout down the straight last week was full of merit. Has drawn closer to the inside and hope that section will be OK. He will be hitting the line hard. CYLINDER is gutsy and classy and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Watch for VEIGHT storming home late.
SUGGESTED BET: Shinzo to win at $6.50

TIPS: Shinzo 1, Cylinder 2, Veight 3, King’s Gambit 4.

RACE 7

I think VERDAD is a smart horse and will be even better in the autumn but he is up to these now. At only his second start he was only a head off Griff (and beat home Autumn Angel) and then had excuses in the Caulfield Guineas. Forced to lead last week at The Valley and he set a solid tempo early. It was only last 100m that he wilted. Think he will be positioned behind speed this time getting a soft run from the good draw and he will be hard to hold out late. The $8.50 price is well worth the gamble. RIFF ROCKET was a victim of slow early tempo and will also be better at the bigger track. SUNSETS just looks like a stayer, while MAKE A CALL and BULAWAYO are worth small bets at big prices.

SUGGESTED BET: Verdad to win at $8.50. Small each way on Make A Call at $81.

TIPS: Verdad 1, Riff Rocket 2, Sunsets 3, Make A Call 4.

RACE 8

Happy to stick with PRINCESS GRACE. She was no doubt a bit flat here four weeks back when she seemed to have her chance to run down Life Lessons as a long odds-on favourite. Like the fact she has been freshened and step up to 1600m looks better for her. She has the crackerjack formlines around Mr Brightside, Alligator Blood and Fangirl. If she runs up to that form, she wins. HINGED is crazy odds. She’s also been given a month off and I thought she was solid in the Hill Stakes last start. She is ready to strike her best.

SUGGESTED BET: Princess Grace to win at $6.50.

TIPS: Princess Grace 1, Hinged 2, Atishu 3, Hope In Your Heart 4.

RACE 9

HERE TO SHOCK looks the one here. He was specked $16 into $11 in the Toorak but maybe he was little out of his depth in a hot race. He’s better off in this grade and back to the 1400m, which is his favourite trip. He was only beaten a neck by Antino two starts back and meets Kalino 2kg better for beating him home three starts back. Gets the right run from the draw. KALINO was super impressive in Listed grade this t/d before a short break and has been given a soft jumpout. He does go well fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Here To Shock to win at $8.50.

TIPS: Here To Shock 1, Kalino 2, Vilana 3, Tamerlane 4.

BEST BET: Ladies Man (race 2)

BEST VALUE: It’sourtime (race 4)

Originally published as Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $7 ‘absolute certainty’ at Flemington on Derby Day