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2024 Caulfield Cup runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

Racenet’s Clinton Payne presents his tips and form assessment for each of the runners in Saturday’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup at Caulfield.

Clinton Payne
6 min read
October 17, 2024 - 6:44AM

The $5 million Caulfield Cup has a deep and competitive field of quality gallopers, with a field of 18 runners plus three emergencies declared for the 2400m time-honoured handicap.

Here is Clinton Payne’s runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

• The Cup horse that can lift Moor off the ‘bottom of the pile’

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1 – KALAPOUR

This will be more too his liking that the Might And Power Stakes last week. Has an excellent record at 2400m and beyond and appears to be treated OK at the weights here considering he’s a Group 1 weight-for-age winner over2400m. Drawn to get favours and handles wet and dry ground.

VERDICT: He’s big odds at over $51.

2 – BUCKAROO

Has come back a new horse since being gelded leading into this prep. Won the Chelmsford and Underwood before being narrowly beaten by Via Sistina in the Turnbull. That form is strong as it gets for this, the query is 2400m. He finished out of the placings at his only previous 2400m start but he’s a different horse this prep. Effective on wet ground.

VERDICT: Turnbull sections indicate he will run the trip.

3 – CIRCLE OF FIRE

Didn’t fire a shot resuming in the Makybe Diva then made plenty of improvement when up to 2000m in the Turnbull Stakes last start. Even better suited again up to 2400m and back to handicap conditions. A wet track is no problem.

VERDICT: This should have ready to produce his best in the Melbourne Cup.

4 – WARP SPEED

Japanese raider and as we’ve learned in the past, they should always be respected when coming to Australia for our big races. This six-year-old is a three-time winner over 2400m but they were in lower grade races and his best form at Group level has come over 3000m and beyond. Query on rain affected ground.

VERDICT: Expecting him to peak on Melbourne Cup day.

5 – HUETOR

Has become something of an inconsistent performer in recent times. Excellent effort first-up in the Underwood when charging late then didn’t fire a shot in the Turnbull. His win over this trip came at start four and this is the first time he’s been tried at the distance since arriving in Australia back in 2021. A wet track will be to his liking.

VERDICT: If the ground is wet it improves his cause.

6 – WARMONGER

A genuine staying type that came right into his own during the back end of his three-year-old season when stepping up to a mile and a half and beyond. Second in the SA Derby before recording a 10-length romp in the Queensland Derby. Good late when resuming in the Makybe Diva then only average last time in the Turnbull. Proven on soft ground.

VERDICT: Targeted at this, can bounce back.

7 – ELIYASS

Classy import that’s been most impressive in his four Australian starts since joining the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott team. He’s a seven-time winner over 2000m but this is his first start beyond that trip so he heads into uncharted territory. Wide draw to overcome. Has an excellent wet track record.

VERDICT: His closing sectionals in the Turnbull say 2400m will be a problem.

8 – LAND LEGEND

Made a long and sustained run to win the Metropolitan in the last stride. He copped a 1kg penalty for that victory, but it could be a blessing as Zac Purton is now in the saddle. A genuine stayer that will lap up the trip. The biggest problem could be barrier 1. The last horse to win this race from that gate was Velocity in 1941. A wet track is a query.

VERDICT: Has genuine each-way claims.

9 – YOUNG WERTHER

Veteran galloper that has been racing well for much of this year, a winner over 2000m two starts back then far from disgraced last time in the Turnbull Stakes. Placed in three of four 2400m starts and is a winner at Caulfield. The prospect of a wet track isn’t to his liking.

VERDICT: Not without each-way claims on a dry track.

10 – DUKE DE SESSA

Racing in the best form of his Australian career this preparation. Excellent in his past two starts at Group 1 level when fourth in the Underwood Stakes and Turnbull Stakes. He is a two-time winner over 2400m and he’s been successful on soft and heavy tracks. Drawn to get favours.

VERDICT: He’s not without each-way claims.

11 – KNIGHT’S CHOICE

Sent to Melbourne after performing well without winning during the Queensland winter carnival but in his two runs down south, he hasn’t fired a shot in the underwood and Turnbull Stakes. Better suited back to handicap conditions and effective on wet.

VERDICT: Lacks the class to figure here.

12 – MURAMASA

Has recaptured something like the form he showed last spring in two runs this prep. Twelve months ago he won three on the bounce around this time including the Coongy and Queen Elizabeth. This trip is a query but set to peak third-up. Winner on soft, unknown on heavy.

VERDICT: Not sure 1800 to 2400m is ideal. Racing well but a risk at the trip.

13 – ZARDOZI

Arrives here off an unlucky second in The Metropolitan where she protested against the winner but was denied the win in the stewards room. That result could prove a blessing as she avoided a weight penalty here. In three starts at 2400 and 2500m, she’s won and placed second twice. Hard fit and handles all ground.

VERDICT: The horse they have to beat.

14 – COCO SUN

Now gets to a similar distance to the trip where she recorded the biggest win of her career in the SA Derby back in May. Her three runs this prep have been OK without being great but she’s suited back into a handicap and probably been looking for this trip. Handles all types of ground.

VERDICT: Place claims are strongest.

15 – DENY KNOWLEDGE

Won the Grafton Cup over a similar distance to this back in July then second-up here last Saturday she caused something of a surprise when holding out Mr Brightside to lead throughout to score the biggest win of her career in the Might And Power Stakes. At her best on good tracks.

VERDICT: The prospect of rain won’t help her cause.

16 – VALIANT KING

His closing 200m sectional in the Turnbull Stakes was not hopeless, only bettered by four of the runners in this race. Ran sixth in this last year in his first Aussie start and he’s sure to strip fitter with a couple of runs under the belt. Proven on all types of ground.

VERDICT: Not the worst roughie in the race.

17 – POSITIVITY

Been racing well this preparation, winning the Naturalism, placing in the Heatherlie and not disgraced when working home in the Bart Cummings last time out. Extremely fit and has no weight and has proven herself on soft tracks.

VERDICT: Best roughie in the race.

18 – SAYEDATY SADATY

Imported stayer with strong UK credentials having finished fifth behind City Of Troy in the Epsom Derby before a third-placed performance behind the Melbourne Cup favourite Jan Brueghel in the Gordon Stakes last time out in August. Barrier 2 could prove tricky and something of an unknown on wet ground.

VERDICT: His form credentials say he must be respected.

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19e – FANCY MAN

Hasn’t been disgraced in either of his two runs this prep, fifth in the Naturalism then third last week in the Herbert Power over this track and trip. Is a two-time winner over 2400m and is proven on soft ground. Drawn to get a good run if he gains a start.

VERDICT: Racing well but looks outclassed.

20e – BERKSHIRE BREEZE

Consistent stayer that was the Melbourne Cup favourite earlier this year. He’s been beaten in his past three runs but not disgraced, finishing around the placegetters in Melbourne Cup qualifiers in his past two. Handles all ground.

VERDICT: Not without place claims if he gains a start.

21e – FRANCESCO GUARDI

He’s been building all prep but finds himself on the bench having not met the first ballot clause of the race (winning or placing in a Group race over 1600m or further since August 1, 2023). The horse is ready to fire, he handles all types of ground and is now up to his right distance range.

VERDICT: Not without each-way claims if he gains a start.

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CLINTON PAYNE’S TIPS
1st – SAYEDATY SADATY (No. 18)
2nd – ZARDOZI (No. 13)
3rd – POSITIVITY (No. 17)
4th – BUCKAROO (No. 2)

Originally published as 2024 Caulfield Cup runner-by-runner form assessments and selections

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Original URL: https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/2024-caulfield-cup-runnerbyrunner-form-assessments-and-selections/news-story/101a643c2ce884101950934b12b8b97e