Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s tips, race-by-race analysis for Rosehill on Saturday
Chris Waller has the two favourites in the January Cup at Rosehill but Ron Dufficy and Shayne O’Cass are both backing an upset.
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The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy’s analyse the 10-race card for January Cup day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting their race-by-race tips and analysis.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST VALUE
R7 No.4: Hopeful
SHAYNE’S BEST VALUE
R1 No.8: Miss Fleetwood
Ron Dufficy:Wodeton is a well-bred colt who has looked the part, running second in two trials. I think he looks a possible Golden Slipper prospect and I would rather be with him, rather than against him here. Sanctified is the one I am wary of. He looks a nice, strong colt who has a bit to offer. I love the way he has moved in his couple of trials. Miss Fleetwood has had three trials and winning that latest trial a heavy track might be to her advantage here. And Splash of Steel looks a sharp type who is over the odds here, winning two trials at Muswellbrook and Warwick Farm.
Shayne O’Cass: The boom on Wodeton is atomic-size and look, he might be the next Luskin Star but I think $1.85 on debut on a heavy track, wide alley, I’ll just be a bystander now, Duff. Well, when I say bystander, I will have a vested interest given the $11/$2.70 the place, and I say again, $2,70 the place for Miss Fleetwood. She’s as well bred as Wodeton and trialled as well too IMHO.
Dufficy: I like Wal’s Angels. He was very good in what looks a strong lead-up behind Sir Remlap. He was first-up there and was a winning second-up last preparation and the softer track is no problem for him. Scopics comes out of that same race. His two runs back are encouraging. He presents nicely from a good draw and is third-up now. Fiorsum Fred has been very consistent all prep. He makes his own luck and is suited back in distance. And Oneforian is another one out of that same race who should be strong late stepping up in distance now.
O’Cass: Good luck to Angus Stewart, the young trainer from Bathurst chasing his first win. Scopics’s trainer should already have got off the mark on day one with this horse who was hung, drawn and quartered by the wicked bias on the Kenso first-up. Good since in the Sir Remlap Highway as you say Duff. Up to 1400m, Tommy Berry, barrier one, that’s three strikes and you’re in as far as I can tell. If it is a swooper’s Highway, Zippo Idea.
Dufficy: Good race. Polyglot is well prepared here with two lovely trials and is showing good talent. He was great in Victoria last preparation and I expect in a sharp field like this, he is hard to hold out. Hezdarnhottoo has a bit of weight but he was nosed out by a very type in Queensland first-up and we know how the stable is going. Winchester is off only one trial and just needs a little bit of luck finding cover from that outside draw, but he does have early speed. And Iron Hawk was very good winning at his debut on the soft last preparation before contesting some better races and he will be the strongest late here.
O’Cass: Concur with all of that, particularly the stuff about Polyglot. I can only add a couple of things of interest, Duff. One is that his only unplaced run so far was in the Listed VRC Poseidon Stakes behind Glowing Empire who placed in an Everest two starts later. Secondly, Polyglot’s win was on a Heavy 8 and lastly, he is a grandson of Forensics. Iron hawk is interesting, absolutely.
Dufficy:Shohisha is an inexperienced, lightly-raced, three-year-old filly. I thought her first-up run was great in the Gosford Guineas and she just might have too much upside for this lot. Zouripper did enough first-up. This distance suits better and he appears a big improver. Lady Extreme deserves a change of luck. She is very genuine but she has been given no favours with a horror draw here. And Herb can be hard to catch but Soft suits and he does have some very competitive Midway form which stands for plenty here.
O’Cass: If the Gosford Guineas was run at Newcastle and not Wyong the other day, I have no doubt that Shohisha would have caught and passed the winner Dance To The Boom. Look, as it was the David Payne-trained filly was impressive to the eye and on the clock given the 32.88sec last 600m in a 1min 9.68sec 1200m. Herb has, as you say, a good Midway CV. One more, Peak is peaking.
Dufficy: The only negative with Gilded Water is the 61.5kg on a potential wet track. Other than that, you would say he has far superior form and looks pretty exciting so I will trust, if they run him on the wet, they are confident he will handle it. Akkadian Emperor has talent and still has more to offer being only third-up now and lightly-raced. Jealous gives the impression this distance may suit her and her wet credentials are great with no weight on her back here. Claim The Crown is more consistent this preparation and is not out of it.
O’Cass: Far superior form. That’s the unassailable fact about The King’s horse, Gilded Water. He might end up winning a Sydney Cup and we’ll look back and think why did we doubt him in a Benchmark 78? I know you’re not doubting him yourself necessarily and I’m not knocking him per se but if the track is bottomless, it is a big ask for any horse to lump that much weight over 2.4km. I’ll stay out of this one.
R6: RACING AND SPORTS HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: I thought Emmadella was quite dominant beating a subsequent winner last start. This looks a lovely next step for her, back to her own sex. Lulomon is pretty genuine. She had excuses last start and the softer track is back in her favour. Autumnmation has hit a peak at the right time and should be around the mark again. Perfumist is not as well weighted on a wet track today but it is hard to deny her winning form.
O’Cass: Suppose by now we will have a sense of pattern, if any. If it is leaders/on pacers favoured, backmarkers less so, then I think Oh Diamond Lil, the one in the John Inglis colours, can bag herself a hat-trick here. This is another step up of course but barrier four is going to help her see out the 1500m on the big track and the testing ground. Emmadella, Justela are massive players.
Dufficy: I thought the value runner of the day here was Hopeful. I think he is worth a spec. He is very fit on a back-up with a big weight drop and he has been just crying out for a softer track and more than likely gets that here. The Chris Waller-trained stablemates are the dangers, Saltcoats and Osipenko. There’s not much between them but I just liked the winning form of Saltcoats this preparation and the big weight pull. Osipenko is beautifully placed for James McDonald, although his is short enough in the market for a horse that hasn’t won in a while. And Converge is another struggling for winning form but like Osipenko, finds a suitable race.
O’Cass:Saltcoats is a long way off being a certainty but I thought he was the obvious, just the way he is racing and who he is beating. Now with all that said, I am going to bet on Akua’rius, the German import resuming off a bit of a break but with a young trainer who is proving himself to be a very good conditioner. This son of Sea The Stars has good form back in Germany, he is a stakes-winner at 2800m so stamina won’t be an issue. He’s $34 Duff and he might start longer. If he doesn’t win, or place today, I know his big aim early in the prep is the Australia Day Cup at home over 2400m.
R8: CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HCP (1300m)
Dufficy: I am with Cigar Flick. She is going really well without winning this preparation and finds a lovely race for herself to put another win on the board here, mapping well. Dangers? Wymark finds a race on paper that reads too short for him but don’t doubt his talent and he is very dangerous late at big odds. Similar with Cotehele. The blinkers seem to do the job for him in a recent trial. He’s been doing nothing this preparation but he is well graded and if he runs to that trials, he might show something near his best. Of the others, I think Excelladus on the back-up, gets a wet track, softer suits, one more chance from an inside draw.
O’Cass: The betting will tell us all about Wymark, Duff. I know you’ll agree Duff, he is a Savabeel from nose to tail so all that (good) stuff he did as a three-year-old is the foundation block for his four-year-old career. I was never going to leave Disneck out when the fields come out on Wednesday but after those storms and if we are on a Heavy 8 or worse, I would easily and swiftly switch to Keitel who was so impressive on the Beaumont last start.
R9: TAB HCP (1500m)
Dufficy:Bunker Hut has been placed at his past seven starts and finally gets his opportunity to put another win on the board, getting a nice run from a good draw and the soft track is OK for him whereas it poses a problem for a few others here. Age Of Sail is a stayer with plenty of pressure up front in this race and he could charge dangerously late here. High Blue Sea is likeable but he needs a drying track late in the day. And The Little Pumper wasn’t bad first-up and should give a good sight up the lead at odds.
O’Cass: One thing I have noticed in a few short seasons is how good Kermadec’s progeny are, in general, so good on heavy tracks. Enter Kapakiri from the Chris Waller stable. Goes without saying that Waller trained Kermadec and it’s not quite at the Zoustar level but he (Waller) knows how to get the best out of the breed.
R10: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I am leaning to Cosmonova. I think she did enough first-up there. Another one drawn well and should find a good run, handles it wet and should be hard to beat. I think Spring Lee would have been clear top pick from the better draw from this start which can be tricky. Just needs luck from that tricky draw and she is right in it. One Destiny might be the one the market has missed, especially if it is worst than soft coming to the last. He was in great form before a break. And the best of the rest, I thought was Boston Rocks, who is ready to win and has to be included.
O’Cass: This is probably another race where there is a clear “best horse” on the race but it (in this case, Spring Lee) comes back to the field owing to that wide draw and being first-up on a potentially very wet track. On top of that, it might be hard to make ground, then again it might not.
Originally published as Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s tips, race-by-race analysis for Rosehill on Saturday
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