Rosehill tips: Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race for the Winter Challenge meeting at Rosehill on Saturday.

Ron Dufficy is keen on Barbie’s Fox in the feature Winter Challenge at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos

The Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances across the 10 races at the Winter Challenge meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

RACE 1 (11:15AM): MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300m)

Duff: Pretty keen on Diamond Diesel here. He is a very genuine horse who never runs badly and gets the right run on-speed again and he is sure to be in the finish. I thought Smart Little Miss was the danger. She is a nice enough mare set to peak third-up after two midweek placings. She has got a knockout chance. A real longshot here is Different Strokes. He is a horse that has always shown ability. He is off a long break but his two trials are good this preparation and he is talented if right. Electrica is best of the rest. She was held up at a vital stage and should have got a lot closer last start so is a chance of making amends.

Shayno: First things first Duff, welcome back! I thought “peak” was the optimum word to sum up Smart Little Miss. Ron Quinton actually bred her as well as doing the training. As for the jockey, Louise Day has ridden her at her last two at the Farm and better still, in her only two wins so far. Soami didn’t so much as break a drought last start, more a sequence of bad luck.

RACE 2 (11:50AM): RACING FOR GOOD ON JULY 29 (1200m)

Duff: I am very keen on Inhibitions. She has had two trials under a good hold and that should have her ready. She has a lovely draw which is important with the rail out 7m and she positions well to be hard to beat. Taormina is the danger. She ran nice time winning at her debut and the stable is in great form. Miss Ghent is the unknown. No official trial but she is an interesting filly that is hard to assess but I like what she did in two runs last preparation and I think she has got a winning chance. House Of Cards is a real bolter. He was in the market at his debut and he made really good late ground.

Shayno: Can I be so bold as to say “great minds”? Just a little aside vis-a-vie Inhibitions, Godolphin bought her for $380,000 at the sales which is cheap for a Zoustar but my real point is, can’t they buy a good horse and they don’t buy many. House Of Cards was the run of the race for mine on debut. Interested in seeing Fukabana who was $1.65 on debut at Eagle Farm and won accordingly.

RACE 3 (12:25PM): TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1500m)

Duff: I have to go with Burrandana off what I saw last start when he was unlucky at this level. He is lightly raced with upside and deserves a change of luck. Barradas is working up to another win in a Highway and the form appears acceptable to be right in the mix. Spitfire has been specked at odds and I can understand why. I liked the way he savaged the line winning over an unsuitable distance at Goulburn but just needs luck from that outside draw. Eaglemont’s form is a little patchy but he looks well placed in a Highway with the set weights.

Shayno: Great minds – again. I remember Burrandana being something licked in the SDRA Country Championships Qualifier last prep. He is known for his barnstorming finish and there’s no jockey that you would want holding the reins than Jason Collett. Moon Reader has gone off at $151 and $91 at her last two starts, both in Benchmark 78s here and make no mistake, she has run far away better than her starting price.

RACE 4 (1PM): KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (2400m)

Duff: Manbehindthemoney – I like the horse – although he is getting up in the weights now at 2400m but he is an adaptable import with upside. I think the danger is Wahine Toa who is sure to run the distance out stronger than most here although he does ride eight kilos from last time which is tough. His stablemate Union Gap is obviously in the right stable for stayers and is ready for 2400m again and maps well. Kirkeby is working up to another win and is at peak fourth-up now and I am expecting a strong showing.

Shayno: Wahine Toa was runner-up to Outlandos in the Stayer’s Cup and he’s quite an accomplished stayer. I am just banking on that race being the slightly superior form to a few of her rivals that come through the same race as each other. The value here IMHO is Whanga Wonder who is building up to a peak.

Manbehindthemoney can win again despite stepping up in weight and distance. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5 (1:35PM): FURPHY HANDICAP (1200m)

Duff: I think Wategos did enough first-up over an unsuitable distance. He might want a tough further again but he gets the right run from the draw to get closer and he’s the value runner. So Good So Cool is racing well and had a few excuses there last time. His previous two city wins were quite good and I thought he appeared pretty good odds here. Brudenell has won four of his last seven and is another one getting up in the weights but he maps well and should be around the mark again. Givara has looked good coming with a big finish winning at his past two. Just the rail out 7m concerns with his racing style.

Shayno: This is the last time I promise, but it’s great minds number three here for us, Duff. I marked the son of Capitalist up on that last first-up run given it was more or less an on-pace race and there was almost no change in the order from start to finish. Jake Hull has breathed new life into the blue blood Huon who by the way is the 10th foal of his dam whose previous offspring include Earthquake, Palomares, Tremor and Pandemic. Right in this.

RACE 6 (2:10PM): PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1200m)

Duff: I know she got all the breaks the other day but Principessa never runs a bad race and was very good winning last start. She gets the right run from the draw in an even race and can’t run bad again. I think the first of the dangers is Tashi, who gets a gear change and it is a nice race for her third-up and she’s set to put her best foot forward although she needs a little bit of luck from the draw. Waverider Buoy is flying and has returned in great order. She may just have to give them a start, going back from that wide draw is the negative. I don’t know a lot about Xtra Gear and he only won a weak race at Beaudesert but he does get a solo lead here for Zac Lloyd and just might give a good kick for a long way.

Shayno: I know you’d remember Miss Zoe, Duff. Gee she was a good mare for Les Bridge and almost as good as matron. That is to say, I don’t know how many winners he has trained out of the family. Enter the granddaughter Zip On By who makes a lot of appeal to me anyhow, down there on 52kg. You’re right about Waverider Buoy; she is flying. One from the trial file, Running Bear.

RACE 7 (2:45PM): TAB HANDICAP (1500m)

Duff: The price is gone but Chorlton Lane is a lightly-raced import who landed good bets winning at his Aussie debut and he appears a horse who could well be on the rise. Good longshot out of the same lead-up is Amor Victorious. He has been back to the trials with an eye-catching trial since that encouraging first-up run and if he has any luck from the draw, the form around him is good. The horse just out of maiden class – Howgoodareyou – was heavily backed when he won and I loved his finishing sectionals at Hawkesbury. The overall time was ordinary but he streamed home the last 600m looking good. Best of the rest is Sweysive who has won two of his last three and gives the impression this distance will suit.

Shayno: Navios had trailed a whole better a $17 shot when he won at Hawkesbury. Sure, it was narrow in the end but wholly authoritative. He jumps straight from park footy into the big leagues now in a very strong Saturday metropolitan race but he wouldn’t be here unless Joe Pride thought him up to the challenge. Concur about Chorlton Lane and I thought Noble Conqueror had next time written all over him first-up.

Chorlton Lane has been well-backed again. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8 (3:25PM): TOYOTA FORKLIFTS WINTER CHALLENGE (1500m)

Duff: I am hoping Barbie’s Fox gets more luck than last time. She is going to get back along the inside and if they open up for her, with all this speed up front in this race, it is going to play into her hands. I have always been a fan of Sibaaq but he hasn’t won in a long time now. I love the fact that he resumes at 1500m this time. Resonator is the new kid on the block. He is a four-year-old up and running in good form with a great racing style. Longvillers has been a work in progress and there was just a little bit to like about that last run and he could be ready to put a really good run on the board this time.

Shayno: I wish the TAB bet on fastest last 600m, Duff, because I would be unloading (responsibly of course) on Lady Of Luxury. Even if she runs a sub 33sec – which she probably will – it might guarantee her the win but I am nothing if not solid so I will be there with her for a third – but last – time today. Acquitted might get her turn now in the absence of her stablemate Ucalledit.

RACE 9 (4:05PM): SCHWEPPES JULY SPRINT (1100m)

Duff: I like Sweet Ride here. I think he’s got the stronger formlines. He loves the Rosehill 1100m and his first-up run at Caulfield was excellent where he got shoved off the track. Zethus is his danger. He’s another one coming out of Victorian form. He has had a little freshen since last run and he looks particularly well placed here. Omni Man is up and running and looking good although it is a big step-up in class for him from Benchmark 72s and 78s. and he is short enough. Dragonstone just minds his own business on the inside here and might have last look at them.

Shayno: Geez, I was all over The Bopper here Duff but is staying home. That leaves with Zethus who I respectfully refer to a solid second tier Godoplhin sprinter. He’ll never run in an Everest but he is well placed as you say Duff with the claim for Zac Lloyd and even better placed from the draw. If they are swooping, Dragonstone might do exactly what you said he might.

RACE 10 (4:40PM): ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1300m)

Duff: Pretty keen on Kalino. He’s had two trials which have been very nice. He was good winning fresh last preparation and I love the set-up for him here with all the speed, just sitting closer than midfield and I think he’s hard to hold out. Much Much Better turned in an encouraging first-up run and gets the claim today and 1300m suits better. Chassis is well-travelled of late but the form around her is solid. She just needs favours from that draw. Glint Of Silver came of age getting to a Group 2 win last preparation and although he’s got a sticky draw, with any luck he could well be in the mix.

Shayno: What’s the song about saving the best for last? It might not run but the horse I am most eager to see all day, all week, is Tajneed. Long story short, she is a granddaughter of Melito and looks to have so much talent and quality. I feel certain that there is black-type in her. I think she might go all the way to Group 1 before she retires in a few seasons from now. Kalino has a winning draw. Glint Of Silver is a big watch so too a couple of roughies Handle The Truth and Casino Kid.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis