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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

Ron Dufficy is taking on Broadsiding in the Randwick Guineas on Saturday. Get Duff and Ray Thomas’ race-by-race tips and analysis.

Ray Thomas
11 min read
March 7, 2025 - 10:34AM
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for every race at Randwick including the Group 1 Randwick Guineas and Group 1 Canterbury Stakes, plus the feature race at Flemington on Saturday.

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SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST BET

R5 No.7: IT’S A KNOCKOUT

DUFF’S BEST VALUE

R1 No.8: HELL’S ITCH

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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1600m)

Ron Dufficy: I see some value with Hell’s Itch. He’s third-up from a better barrier and if we get any rain that won’t hurt him. I just feel he represents very good value around the $21 mark. In saying that, Pocketing is very likeable. He has blinkers on and has been looking for 1600m. He has more upside than most in this race. Missile Seeker had plenty to do and wasn’t bad last start and meets Rush Attack 4.5kg better at the weights here. Rush Attack covered ground and was quite good winning last start. He’s very genuine.

Ray Thomas: Pocketing hit the line hard to finish a close third at Rosehill over 1400m last start. Promising three-year-old who should appreciate getting to 1600m. He’s drawn favourably and should be able to settle in the front half of the field and be hard to hold out. Rush Attack travelled wide throughout but found a way to win at Rosehill last start. He is third-up and still on the improve. Noble Soldier ran well at Canterbury last start to beat all but Sweysive and that form reads well for this race. Missile Seeker will be competitive again.

RACE 2: FIREBALL STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: There’s lots of angles here. I was taken by the way Yoshinobu went in his second trial. He looks a stronger horse this preparation, James McDonald going on is a good lead, and with any luck from that draw he will be hard enough to beat. Zeitung has had two trials under a hold where she has gone really nicely. This is a touch short of her best distance but I expect her to be charging home. Perspiration is a huge query first-up with no trial to guide. If there is market support for him, he is very talented and scored a good, soft track win in Heritage Stakes before his spell. Drifting didn’t do much first-up but she has trialled since and is not badly placed here.

Thomas: Enriched worked home well to finish a close third at Rosehill two week ago. He will strip fitter and showed promise back in the spring when he was stakes placed in the Danehill Stakes. Enriched is the value runner in an open race. Zeitung won the Vanity Stakes last spring and is a talented filly trialling well. Perspiration and Drifting are stakes winners with talent and both are capable of being in the finish.

RACE 3: REISLING STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: This race is a head-scratcher. I’ve always liked Tupakara as a filly since she ran well on debut in the Gimcrack Stakes. She wasn’t herself in the Golden Gift, her recent trial was nice enough and I think she might be the value runner. Inkaruna won well at Sandown, there was a lot to like about her debut win, she has since cruised along in a Sydney trial and I respect her. Tempted had a number of excuses from the Blue Diamond when she got a long way back in a moderately run race and can bounce back for sure. Bel Merci is hard to approach after an inconclusive run in the Silver Slipper but we know she is good enough if she puts her best foot forward.

Thomas: Tempted was luckless first-up in the Widden Stakes, charging home to just miss then she again raced without luck when running on late for seventh in the Blue Diamond. She is back to a fillies-only race and provided she can get some cover early from her wide draw, she is going to be hard to hold out. Bel Merci, the brilliant Gimcrack Stakes winner, was disappointing first-up in the Silver Slipper but is worth another chance. Marhoona won well on debut and will only improve. Lady Pankhurst and Nullabor Jane are first-starters from the John Sargent stable who are trialling up a storm.

RACE 4: TODMAN STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m tied to the hip with Wodeton. This is a big moment for him, he has a run under his belt, he’s got a good draw and gets the chance to shine in a good field. North England had a slight setback but galloped beautifully last weekend and is ready to make a statement in his own right. Tycoon Star has been enormous giving away huge starts at his two Caulfield runs. He’s a serious threat. How do you knock, Beiwacht. He won the Silver Slipper with a touch of arrogance and just needs a bit of luck early slotting in from an outside draw.

Thomas: I’m also with Wodeton, Ron. His debut win was monstrous then he was three-wide without cover back in the field but still ran on strongly for third in the Silver Slipper. The barrier draw for the Todman is kinder for the boom colt and he should confirm Golden Slipper favouritism. North England had a minor setback in training and missed the Silver Slipper but he is a brilliant colt and looked very sharp in an exhibition gallop between races last Saturday. Tentryis ran a blinder to just miss reeling in Devil Night in the Blue Diamond, and Beiwacht should be in the finish again after his brilliant Silver Slipper win.

RACE 5: ASPIRATION QUALITY (1600m)

Dufficy: Another competitive race, Ray. I’m gambling on It’s A Knockout. She has a lovely racing style stepping up to the mile. I don’t know if it was a strong race she contested first-up but she had the flashing light there. She might be able to settle into a lovely on-pace position and prove hard to beat. Be Real is a good longshot. She likes it soft if the rain comes on the day and her trials have been good. I’m interested in her at big odds. Hinged has a big weight but this is a lovely race for her second-up at a mile particularly if the track is soft. Mare Of Mt Buller is a nice, big strong mare who has been back to the trials after a solid first-up placing.

Thomas: I’ve landed on It’s A Knockout, too. She was good first-up just missing behind Dark Glitter at Randwick and the winner was narrowly beaten in the Millie Fox Stakes to frank the form. It’s A Knockout will be fitter and being by Dundeel she will enjoy the 1600m. Mare Of Mt Buller hit the line strongly when third to Point And Shoot. She’s had a month between runs and should still be fresh enough for this trip. Be Real is a tough mare resuming and she can sneak into the minor placings. Little Baia comes off good wins at Canterbury although this is obviously a stronger race.

RACE 6: CHALLENGE STAKES (1000m)

Dufficy: Any number of chances and probably weather-related. I know Mazu hasn’t won in a while but I think it is a lovely race for him. He ran competitively in a Group 1 at Flemington first-up, if he gets the jar out of the track he can run well here. I Am Me is a real dry-tracker, that’s the key with her. She’s a terrific chance if the track suits. Uncommon James is a very smart horse. I know he is first-up off a long spell but he did run very well in a Galaxy when resuming last preparation. I wouldn’t undersell him here. Kimochi probably finds this short of her best but this is a race she could charge home in because she is so tough.

Thomas: There’s good speed in this race and it just might set up well for Kimochi. She’s a talented mare who finished her spring campaign with a Group 1 win, she has a very good fresh record and although this is only 1000m, she will be finishing fast. If the rain does come that is forecast, then Mazu is a definite chance. His Lightning Stakes effort was very good. I Am Me needs a dry track and if she gets conditions to suit, she’s capable of winning this race. Jedibeel is an underrated sprinter who excels at the start of a preparation.

RACE 7: RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m going with Swiftfalcon. I think he was just as good as Broadsiding first-up coming with that big finish and he doesn’t have to improve much to turn the tables. Broadsiding got that great ride to win first-up and there is no reason he can’t position well again. There might be a little query on his second-up form but I don’t think there is enough evidence to be conclusive. Aeliana is a good filly and she wasn’t far behind them the other day. Linebacker was too far back last time but he is very competitive when right third-up. I think the four of them are right in the mix but the market has zeroed in on the one horse.

Thomas: I have Broadsiding leading home Swiftfalcon and Aeliana again, the same trifecta as the Hobartville Stakes two weeks ago. Broadsiding was brilliant first-up, racing close to the speed, forging clear in the straight and winning with authority. He’s unbeaten in two starts over the Randwick mile, drawn to get all the favours, James McDonald rides and he handles all track conditions. He ticks all the boxes. Swiftfalcon took ground off Broadsiding late in the Hobartville and he also excels over the 1600m. Aeliana is the only filly in the Guineas field but she held her own against the boys last start. Linebacker had excuses last start and is not out of this race.

RACE 8: CANTERBURY STAKES (1300m)

Dufficy: There are so many ways you can go here, I just don’t know. I’ve settled on Magic Time as we might get some give in the track and that’s a big advantage to her. She has a great turn of speed, she’s in form, the stable is in form, so I am leaning her way – just. Stefi Magnetica is another very good mare and she should have gone close to winning the Golden Eagle last preparation. She’s a Stradbroke winner and might be the forgotten horse here. Sunshine In Paris is a big first-up performer and she looked good in a track gallop between races last week. I think Militarize might do something here. He looks amazing, very forward and fit, and could shock.

Thomas: I agree, Ron, this is a terrific sprint with many chances. Sunshine In Paris is lethal fresh and her recent trial effort suggests she’s on song for her return. Her best form is on top of the ground so she won’t want too much rain. Crack colt Switzerland has a race fitness edge and the talent to beat his older rivals. Stefi Magnetica is a brilliant mare, she’s trialling well and handles all track conditions. Magic Time showed blinding acceleration to win the Expressway Stakes and will be hard to beat again.

RACE 9: RANDWICK CITY STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: I’m hoping Alalcance gets a run here. She’s an imported mare who was very good in her first Sydney preparation late last year. I’m just looking for different form here and she is lightly raced, she reacted first-up over a distance last time in, she’s had a couple of trials, and she handles all conditions. She is very reliable and should run well. Our Anchorage is a different horse this preparation and hard to knock. Warmonger is a Queensland Derby winner and although he didn’t do anything first-up, I liked his Sydney barrier trial. Kinesiology needs luck from the draw but has his foot on the till after a couple of runs back from a spell.

Thomas: We are on the same page with Alalcance. She’s a tough, frontrunning mare with a high cruising speed and plenty of stamina. If she gets a run, she will take some catching. Our Anchorage just keeps winning. He’s in a rich vein of form and will be very competitive again. Asterix is improving with racing and wasn’t beaten far behind Our Anchorage last start. Redstone Well wasn’t beaten far in the Parramatta Cup first-up and can only improve.

RACE 10: WENONA GIRL QUALITY (1200m)

Dufficy: I don’t mind Commemorative drawn wide. She’s a big mare who needs room to move. I just hope she gets a back to follow here and I think she will be the one to beat. There are plenty of dangers including Shezanalister who sets up beautifully third-up here. Any rain around will be a bonus. Clear Thinking is hard to knock. She was terrific when up in class last time after having a lot to do. She is in the mix. Outback Miss is just out of midweek races but I have been quite impressed by her and she could surprise with no weight on her back.

Thomas: Clear Thinking might have lost her unbeaten record but she only gained admirers after making a long, sustained run from back in the field to just miss behind Inhibitions in the Triscay Stakes. She’s drawn deep but with any luck in running, she’ll be finishing fast. Commemorative is a big chance for all the reasons you mentioned. Shezanalister is in good form and I’ve also got Outback Miss in my numbers.

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FLEMINGTON

RACE 7: ALL-STAR MILE (1600m)

Dufficy: Tom Kitten should have beaten Mr Brightside first-up and represents the best value of the three top favourites here. Mr Brightside is always a tough nut to crack and will be very hard to toss again. Another Wil has been kept fresh and likes Flemington while Atishu is the best of the rest.

Thomas: The remarkable Mr Brightside is the one to beat. He’s so genuine, excels over the Flemington 1600m course, and he comes off another Group 1 win in the Futurity Stakes. Another Wil stalked Mr Brightside in the Orr Stakes and got him right on the line. He’s the main danger again. Tom Kitten was super first-up in the Futurity and arguably should have won. Atishu is a Flemington track specialist.

RACE 9: NEWMARKET HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: Joliestar is a very good mare who obviously had no luck when well fancied first-up and deserves another chance. Growing Empire can improve with the blinkers off, he just needs to execute better. Espionage did enough when resuming off a long spell and gets in with a very light weight. He is more than capable of a surprise. Benedetta has a bit of weight but excels on the straight course.

Thomas: Headwall comes off a fourth in the Oakleigh Plate where he was very unlucky. Headwall was bolting behind runners in the straight and he would have made it interesting with clear running. In an open Newmarket, he’s a good lightweight chance at value odds. Joliestar and Growing Empire are both top class on their day and rate among the main chances. Espionage drew wide in the Oakleigh Plate and ran well to finish just behind the placegetters. He’s a big improver.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/horse-racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-tips-analysis-for-royal-randwick-on-saturday/news-story/5c970f1171d22f17a6365d52a4de0118