Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington

A lightly-raced mare from Tulloch Lodge can show just how good she is when she heads to the Kensington track on Wednesday. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Howgoodareyou can bounce back from her narrow last start defeat with a win at Randwick-Kensington on Wednesday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Daily Telegraph form analyst Adam Sherry gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kensington on Wednesday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

BEST BET

Race 5 No.8: HOWGOODAREYOU

The Waterhouse/Bott-trained mare won impressively on debut at Hawkesbury and stepped straight to Saturday grade when a half neck second at Rosehill. Drawn the pole and will take catching.

NEXT BEST

Race 3 No.2: THE MILKYBAR KID

Faded late after leading first-up when fourth at Warwick Farm. Will be better for the run, has won his only start this track and distance and the blinkers go back on.

VALUE BET

Race 8 No.3: STROMBOLI

First-up of a decent break as a gelding. Trialled nicely and won his only start this track and distance when resuming.

BEST EXOTIC

Race 3: Quinella 2, 5

QUADDIE

Race 4: 6, 7, 8

Race 5: 8, 3, 6

Race 6: 6, 10, 11

Race 7: 1, 3, 10

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Champion jockey James McDonald can hit the ground running in the new season.

James McDonald can start the new season with a couple of winners. Picture: Getty Images

INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Le Chocolat drops back in grade from his 2½-length fourth to Taormina in a 2YO Open over 1200m at Rosehill on July 22. Battled away when fourth to Sicilian on debut here. By Ocean Park so he will also appreciate the extra distance.Zarrose went back to last from a wide gate and was held up momentarily on straightening before closing off nicely for second behind all-the-way winner Howgoodareyou over 1300m at Hawkesbury on July 9. The winner got home in 33.09sec and Zarrose made a little ground. Drawn out again but extra trip will suit. Dunbelievin’ made up some ground when sixth to The Little Pumper over 1400m at Randwick on July 15. Cicada was good winning his Warwick Farm trial on July 24.

Bet: La Chocolat to win

RACE 2

Encap was a handy third on debut at Warwick Farm back in March. Resumed with a fast finishing second to Undivided over 1100m at Warwick Farm on July 19. Hard to beat on that but drawn out and may be saved for another day. Coincide was beaten as an easing favourite when third to Undivided when resuming. He will be fitter for the run, drawn to lead and the cross over noseband goes back on. Summer Loving placed third at her first three starts including in the Magic Millions before fading in the Sweet Embrace. Covered ground and worked home well in her first trial back. Shaken up late and closed strongly in second heat. Fire Star has won both recent trials in good fashion.

Bet: Encap to win or, if scratched, Coincide to win

RACE 3

The Milkybar Kid raced without blinkers for the first time when fourth behind Ruby Flyer after leading when resuming over 1600m at Warwick Farm on July 19. Will be better for the run and blinkers go back on. Last winter he won second-up and won his only start at this track and distance. This’llbetheone won over 2000m at Kembla two starts back before stepping up in grade and racing outside the leader when eighth to Manbehindthemoney at Randwick on July 8. Back in grade and drawn to get an ideal run. Enotis was just beaten at Hawkesbury before scoring a narrow win over 1500m at Kembla. Up in grade and distance but must be respected. New Republic comes off a win at Canterbury over this trip.

Bet: The Milkybar Kid to win. Quinella 2, 5

RACE 4

Bat Out Of Hell worked home from last when a two-length fourth to Resonator over 1500m at Rosehill on July 1 then held up behind the leader when a length third to Token Capitalist at Randwick a week late when dropping back 100m. Back up to 1550m. Sumo Star followed his Canterbury maiden win with a fighting head second to Sweysive here over 1300m. Stepped up in grade to a Midway at Rosehill and raced outside the leader when sixth to Soami. Steps up to 1550m for the first time. Sweysive drops in grade from his seventh to Kangaroo Court at Rosehill 11-days ago. Scored a tough win here the start prior. Akihiro was forced five and six wide on the bend when seventh at Doomben last start. Can place.

Bet: Bat Out OF Hell to win

RACE 5

Howgoodareyou was well backed and won impressively on debut at Hawkesbury on July 9 and stepped straight to Saturday grade when a half-neck second to stablemate Kangaroo Court in a BM72 at Rosehill. Hard to beat. Centrestone drops back from her eighth to Fearnought at Randwick on July 15. Made a sustained run from about the 700m out three and four wide when runner down late by Mutamanni at Warwick Farm. Principessa dashed along the inside to score here two starts back before a fifth to Petulant at Rosehill. Hellavadancer dropped back from midweek to provincial grade and broke through with a half-length win at Wyong last start.

Bet: Howgoodareyou to win. Quinella/trifecta 8 / 3, 6

RACE 6

Dakota Vroom got well back and was held up into the straight when eighth to all-the-way winner Time To Boogie. Won impressively first-up at Warwick Farm and Kerrin McEvoy is back on board. Sha Of Gomer is first emergency but looks the danger if he gets a run. Scored back-to-back wins at Eagle Farm and Doomben then just battled late last start before a spell. Has been good without being knocked about in both recent trials. Sneaky Shark flew late to finish third to King Of Naples at Canterbury last start. Wide draw doesn’t help but has place claims again. Walkin’talkin flew the gates to lead from his wide gate when fifth to King Of Naples at Canterbury last start. Include in multiples.

Bet: Dakota Vroom to win

RACE 7

Stromboli has three wins and two placings from nine starts but returns from a spell as a gelding and can build on that as a more focused horse. He hasn’t raced since beating two home at Randwick last December but is a first-up winner at this track and distance. Wasn’t knocked about in his recent Rosehill trial and drawn ideally. Secret Revolution battled on well when third to Insurrection and Brudenell at Randwick two starts back before a two length second to Boss at Warwick Farm two weeks ago. Loves the 1100m and has placed here. Wide draw is the only concern. Miss Kojiki tracked the leader and wore down Mr Kennedy to score first-up at Canterbury. Drawn nicely and will in the finish again. Glacier Queen hasn’t raced for 12 months but was consistent. Stretched out nicely to win her Rosehill trial on July 21.

Bet: Stromboli to win

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kensington