Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange

A James Cummings-trained filly didn’t have much go her way on debut but with better luck now she can go one better than her second placing. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Rachel King will ride the James Cummings-trained Black Iris who looks hard to beat at Kembla on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Matt Jones gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Kembla Grange.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 4, No.7: BLACK IRIS

Not much went right for her on debut at Hawkesbury when she got flushed wide and didn’t get the easiest run before finishing second. She can go one better here with Rachel King aboard.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.9: PRINCIPESSA

She caught the eye at her Australian debut in town last start behind a progressive horse and she’s placed in an easier race here so look for a big run.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.7: AWESOME JOHN

He got no luck here first-up when getting blocked for a run and had to come out off heels to make his finishing effort which was strong.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 5, 6, 7, 9

Race 6: 2, 3, 4, 5

Race 7: 3, 8, 12, 15

Race 8: 3, 6, 10

Trainer Kerry Parker (left) has a couple of good chances at Kembla on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

TRAINER TO WATCH

Local trainer Kerry Parker looks to have placed Jessandi and Sherwood’s One well in the third and sixth races.

JOCKEY TO WATCH

Tommy Berry will no doubt be disappointed if Satness, Extreme Freedom and Yumi don’t run very competitive races.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR KEMBLA GRANGE

RACE 1

Satness is back to his home track and is knocking on the door after placing in his past three runs. He looks well placed to score another win with a leading jockey on. Herb is dropping back in grade and is fit enough for this trip while Nautical Miss comes into this off a breakthrough win at this track last start and gets the inside gate which suits and she should be leading them into the straight in testing conditions which is the way to go. Mehajir put the writing on the wall two runs back in a decent provincial race and came out and win over 1500m last start and will eat up the extra 100m here.

Bet: Satness to win

RACE 2

Locally-trained horse Extreme Freedom get an easier task here after struggling in Stakes grade two weeks ago at Randwick and he won here two starts back so he’s got to be a good chance as a fit horse. Credit Crunch is racing for a stable that’s already having a good week and she won last start at Goulburn and they’ve kept her fresh again to stay at this trip. Casual Connection probably gets back on the fence here so he gets an easy run in transit but will need to probably dodge past some slow ones and he should be coming at them late.

Bet: Credit Crunch to win

RACE 3

Long Tycoon has been sent here for a kill no doubt. He will sit right on the speed and probably even lead and be in this for a long time. Jessandi is back to her home track and is bred to do it in wet ground. Tradition probably gets back from the wide draw and he will improve a lot off a fresh run and barrier trial since. Wolves is going to win one at some point. She’s been to a Stakes race so they must have an opinion of her. Awesome John was very unlucky here first-up when getting chopped out of a run and had he got clear running in the straight he just about wins.

Bet: Awesome John to win

Brenton Avdulla rides Awesome John on Thursday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 4

Black Iris suffered from an awkward draw which forced her to come wide and work early approaching the home turn on debut at Hawkesbury and it cost her a win. She’s got a much better gate now so must be a hope. Secaution got crowded for room on debut at Warwick Farm in a fair race so she’s placed well here. On The Beach has drawn the carpark but has the speed to come across and sit outside the leader or even lead and she’s a much fitter horse now which she’ll need to be from that gate.

Bet: Black Iris to win

RACE 5

Argentado is well placed here by James Cummings after she went well enough in two city races before going for a spell and she’s trialled up nicely but will need some luck from the wide gate. Principessa is trying to win for the first time at start nine but she’s placed six times and caught the eye at her Australian debut at odds but will be more respected here from a nice draw. Definitely Maybe looks to have returned a better horse after showing promise at her first preparation with a couple of placings.

Bet: Principessa to win

RACE 6

Russbuss had to cover more ground than Ten Bells when running second to it at Canterbury last start and would’ve beaten it in another bound and the start before ran third behind Camino Real at Hawkesbury so the form is great and she’s on a quick back up. California Surreal is an improver second-up after making a long, wide run first-up in town. Yumi cruised up to them in her latest barrier trial to suggest she’s on track for a good prep. Sherwood’s One got caught three-deep with no cover last start but still ran third and has an inside gate now.

Bet: Russbuss to win

Jason Collett partners the Sam Cavanagh-trained Kayobi at Kembla. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Kayobi hasn’t run worse than second in four runs to date and did beat Navajo Peak last preparation and that horse has come out an won a couple of Saturday city races since. He did run a long way last in his lead barrier trial but wasn’t under too much pressure. Will the track be too wet for This’llbetheone? River Mac pretty much ticks all the boxes on paper for this race while Lohnraki will love wet ground and is placed in the right grad here. Man Of Reign smashed them on a heavy track last start which bodes well for this step up in grade.

Bet: Kayobi to win

RACE 8

Phearson is super consistent and scored a well-deserved win last start at Hawkesbury when sent out a $1.70 and he won like that price. It wasn’t a strong race but he can make the step up in grade here and go close. Excelladus has good form around him and trialled up like he was ready to record his second first-up win and he handles the wet ground and 1400m fresh looks ideal for the son of So You Think. Persevere might have just been flat second-up after a slashing fresh win. It can happen off a long spell.

Bet: Phearson to win

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange