Melbourne Cup 2016: Your guide to picking the winner

PICKING the Cup winner is tough — especially when one of the foreigners is called Bondi Beach. We run the rule over the horses that will stop the nation and give you a leg-up to finding the winner.

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PICKING the Cup winner is tough — especially when one of the foreigners is called Bondi Beach. We run the rule over the horses that will stop the nation and give you a leg-up to finding the winner.

1 BIG ORANGE

Why he can win: Front running Pommy stayer who from all reports is much stronger than when he ran fifth last year. Will be in it for a long way.

Why he can’t win: There has never been a fruity-themed Cup winner. Although you could make a case for Kiwi (1983).

2 OUR IVANHOWE

Can win: Lee Freedman also knows a bit about winning Melbourne Cups, having trained five winners.

Can’t win: Prefers it wet and, oddly, there is not much rain about in Bleak City this week.

3 CURREN MIROTIC

Can win: Japanese horses high up in the betting market can’t win (Admire Rakti, Fame Game and Pop Rock), but rougher-priced compatriots like Curren Mirotic can (Delta Blues, 2006).

Can’t win: No nine-year-old gelding has won the Cup. Also resembles a carthorse at track work.

Could the Cup go to a foreigner named Bondi Beach? Picture: AAP

4 BONDI BEACH

Can win: Handicapper Greg Carpenter has warned his form is most likely better than it looks on paper. Cup path meticulously plotted to get him into the race with a winning handicap.

Can’t win: Would be an outrage if a foreigner named after our most famous stretch of sand won.

5 EXOSPHERIC

Can win: Former English stayer who will be improved from running home strongly in the Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut to finish third behind Jameka.

Can’t win: Has never raced beyond 2400m, so could get a stitch.

6 HARTNELL

Can win:Was the second banana in the Cox Plate match race with Winx — but there is no Winx in the Cup.

Can’t win: Godolphin has a nearly two-decade long curse in Australia’s great race. Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s famous all-blue colours always come up short.

7 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

Can win: Old fashioned stayer who just keeps coming. Has a distinctive name and the beers would be flowing freely in Australia’s pubs and clubs if he gets up.

Can’t win: Would be best off relaxing on a bar stool somewhere, as his best days are behind him.

8. WICKLOW BRAVE

Can win: Arrives in career-best form, off a win over the highly-credentialed Order Of St George.

Can’t win: The Melbourne Cup is the nut that flamboyant jockey Frankie Dettori just can’t seem to crack.

9. ALMOONQITH

Can win: Produced a lovely Melbourne Cup trial in the Caulfield Cup flying home for fourth, recording the fastest last 200m.

Can’t win: What does his name even mean? It hardly rolls off the tongue, and just can’t imagine Greg Miles calling him first past the post.

10. GALLANTE

Can win: Won the Sydney Cup so will be strong in the final stages when many others are plodding.

Can’t win: Was under pressure a long way out in his most recent run and would need Steven Bradbury luck to win here.

11. GRAND MARSHAL

Can win: Died-in-the-wool stayer with the Chris Waller polish. Waller can turn dust into diamonds and his runners always peak on the big days

Can’t win: Waller has never won the Cup and doubt punters will be hollering for a marshal this year.

12. JAMEKA

Can win: Throttled her opposition in the Caulfield Cup. The Caulfield Cup may not be as good a guide to the Melbourne Cup as it used to be, but hard to knock this girl.

Can’t win: Serena Williams has produced a number of victories in Melbourne, but all of them were at Rod Laver Arena, not Flemington. Jameka is Serena’s middle name.

Adam McNamara urges Heartbreak City to the line to win The Ebor. Picture: Getty Images

13 HEARTBREAK CITY

Can win: Has the world’s best jockey, the Magic Man Joao Moreira, doing the steering. Irish trainer Tony Martin loves a plunge and has already been backed for a stack in the Cup. Won the Ebor easily last start at York which is a good lead-up race.

Can’t win: Can’t overcome barrier 23, and there wouldn’t be enough beer in Melbourne for the mad Irishmen who own him if he did.

14 SIR JOHN HAWKWOOD

Can win: Recently won a Group 1, The Metropolitan at Randwick, and has been competitive with other Cup runners in lead-up races.

Can’t win: Has never raced beyond 2600m and just isn’t good enough.

15 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE

Can win: His six runs at more than 2400m have all been decent. Was only beaten three lengths in Cup last year when led into the straight.

Can’t win: Gai Waterhouse won the Melbourne Cup with Fiorente in 2013. Excess Knowledge is no Fiorente.

16 BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE

Can win: Lightly-raced mare who has drawn barrier No.1. Totally unknown at this distance but looks a progressive type.

Can’t win: Beaten by a world-class filly in Minding, which looks a great form line. Problem is she was beaten 20 lengths.

Almandin has kept on improving since landing in Australia. Picture: Ian Currie

17 ALMANDIN

Can win: Has kept on improving since landing here and he gets in with no weight. Can give plenty of cheek.

Can’t win: Will be weary, given his preparation started back in Europe earlier in the year with plenty of runs since.

18 ASSIGN

Can win: Katelyn Mallyon sounds confident she can strike another blow for the female jockeys. Back-to-back Cups for the ladies? Don’t write it off.

Can’t win: Will have to do a stack of work to be up near the lead from barrier 22

19 GREY LION

Can win: Outstanding run in the Geelong Cup and jockey Glen Boss knows a thing or two about winning Melbourne Cups.

Can’t win: Not good enough to win a race like this. And a grey lion hardly sounds like the most fearsome of the pride.

20 OCEANOGRAPHER

Can win: Impossible to miss the English raider’s slashing Melbourne Cup-trial, winning the Lexus last Saturday. Sneaks into the race with just 52kg.

Can’t win: Was beaten a long way by Heartbreak City earlier this year. Would prefer a more seasoned jockey than Chad Schofield.

21 SECRET NUMBER

Can win: Consistent type who has been to Australia before and wasn’t disgraced last Spring.

Can’t win: The real secret number here is 3200m. Will knock up well before the finishing post in this, with only one run in the last 12 months.

22 PENTATHLON

Can win: Tough as nails Kiwi stayer who has a win and a second in three tries over 3200m.

Can’t win: Form is nothing to enthuse about and will be having his third run in 10 days. Might just run out of gas when it gets serious.

23 QEWY

Can win: Everything trainer Charlie Appleby touches turns to gold. Led throughout to win the Geelong Cup at Australian debut and will be better for that.

Can’t win: Was given the fifth pick of the Godolphin racing caps, because the stable’s four other runners took the main ones. Surely that’s a sign he isn’t even close to their No. 1 seed?

24 ROSE OF VIRGINIA

Can win: Cheer for the fairytale story of teenage jockey Ben Thompson riding a Cup winner, only four years after he first jumped on a horse

Can’t win: There is a very good reason the bookies rate this one as a $200 shot.