Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race for The Rosebud meeting at Rosehill on Saturday.

Caballus is Duff’s best bet on the Rosehill program on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances on the 10-race program at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

R1 No.2: CABALLUS

BEST VALUE

R4 No.8: TAGS

R1: INGLIS PINK BONUS HCP (1300m)

Ron Dufficy: I think Caballus is a very nice horse loaded with talent. I love what he did winning last start and the extra distance is in his favour. I’m happy to stick with him. The Little Pumper has had a tick-over trial since stretching his speed out to 1400m last start. He’s fit and well and looks hard to beat again. Ganbare did run in some strong races last autumn appearing very promising but raw and I thought he would return a better horse. Waverley looks a nice miler in the making and should be doing good work late in this race.

Ray Thomas: We have a similar take on this race. I can’t add much more about Caballus than what you have said, Ronnie, except he’s only had two starts, comes off that strong Randwick win and has so much upside. The Little Pumper is race-fit and in top form, likes to lead and can dictate the tempo to suit. He will take some running down. Ganbare shows staying potential and watch for him to be hitting the line strongly. Misty Legend was just beaten at Newcastle on Thursday and is unlikely to back up so Kintyre comes into my top four selections.

R2: MIDWAY HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m happy to give Strait Acer another chance. I think staying at 1300m was a touch against him last start so third-up here at 1500m he looks well-placed in a typically tough Midway. Baranof was wide with no cover and chasing last start so with the better draw he’s the big improver. Dreamdeel is a little underrated but he’s a good on-pace type at this distance range and will give some cheek. Super Friendship got tightened for room last start and was eased out of the contest so I’m happy to judge him on his two previous wins.

Thomas: Elettrica should have won at Randwick last start, having to change direction a couple of times in the straight before finishing fast to just miss behind Forecaster. She hasn’t won a race for nearly 18 months and has to come back slightly in trip here but she is drawn to get all the favours. Satness is in great form albeit in easier grade but he’s also perfectly drawn and appeals at double-figure odds. Strait Acer is better suited this trip and will be improved by two runs back from a spell. I also have Dreamdeel in my numbers.

R3: ACY SECURITIES HCP (1800m)

Dufficy: I like Wineglass Bay although I’m a little concerned about the tempo in this race. Wineglass Bay is third-up from a spell and gets the blinkers on at the right time. He should be hard to hold out. Bazooka drops back to his right grade with the claim and over his best distance. He is the big improver. Silent Agenda is a tough, adaptable horse who is always a chance in these types of races. Casino Kid finds himself in a race where surely he can run well.

Thomas: Wineglass Bay was second-up at 1800m when second at Randwick last start. He will be toughened and improved by that run, and as you pointed out, Ronnie, he gets the blinkers on for the first time here. This looks his race. Bazooka worked to the line without threatening at Randwick last start but he is very fit, finds himself in a suitable race and with the benefit of a 3kg claim. He’s the main danger to Wineglass Bay. Travelling Kate and Silent Agenda are genuine types sure to run competitively again.

R4: TAB HIGHWAY (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m quite keen on Tags, Ray. He has had two runs back after a year off, I love the way he hit the line start, the 1300m here is ideal and there is still improvement to come. Wizard Of Oz had no room to move at all when resuming for the new stable after some eye-catching trials. He looks right in the mix from his good draw. Iron Will was very good winning second-up and has also drawn to suit. He will tough it out from the front. Melody Again finally draws a barrier and gets her chance to put her best foot forward.

Thomas: Wizard Of Oz looked to be bolting behind leader and eventual winner Iron Will on the turn at Randwick first-up but he couldn’t get a clear crack at them in the straight and finished a close fourth. Wizard Of Oz was having his first run for a new stable and will be improved. Should get the run of the race and looks hard to beat. Same top four with Tags better for recent racing, Iron Will is in top form and Melody Again will be in the mix.

Extremely Lucky is set to make his debut for Chris Waller. Picture: Atkins Photography

R5: SCHWEPPES HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: Chris Waller has two possible carnival players here with Extremely Lucky and Olentia but he is only going to run one of them as James McDonald is booked for both horses. Extremely Lucky is the one that interests me the most. He is coming off a long break but he’s been airborne at the trials and the only thing stopping me from declaring him a good thing is can he run 1200m? Olentia has created a huge impression winning four of her five starts, her trials have been good and she will be hard to beat. Devil’s Throat raced without luck in the Ramornie Handicap. His two previous wins were good and he went well in a recent trial. Tristate had his chance second-up but he’s going well enough and is a knockout chance on the back-up. Diamond Dealer has a better draw and can improve with his lightweight.

Thomas: Extremely Lucky is a lightly-raced, stakes-winning sprinter resuming after a long spell. He’s had two trials for new trainer Chris Waller, being placed in both and unleashing strong finishing bursts from back in the field. He looks set to make a winning return to racing. Olentia is unlikely to run but if there is a change of plans from the Waller stable, then this talented mare is one to watch. Vreneli is a handy type and is trialling well for his return. Tristate has race fitness on his side.

R6: EXCEEDANCE AT VINERY STUD HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: The only thing stopping me from declaring Call Di is the lack of speed in this race. But she is a talented, well-bred mare, she has been given time and this is a lovely start for her spring campaign. She just has to be wound up enough off one soft trial. Fearnought has had a month since beating Anagain and she is a better price than that horse so I think she had good credentials. Bella Rouge was hopeless first-up and then was a huge improvement hitting the line hard last start. Back to her own sex she should run well. African Daisy will get favours on speed which is an advantage in this race and she does like this track.

Thomas: This is a tough race. I concede Call Di is the most promising horse in the race and she might blow away her rivals but she’s short enough in betting now and is giving away race fitness to some handy mares. I’ve landed on African Daisy who has been racing well without winning through winter. She’s the inside barrier and will make her own luck racing on speed. Call Di is definitely the one to beat and I’ve got Sebrenco as a top three chance. She was good first-up, better suited on a bigger track and is over the odds. Anagain scored a deserved win last start and could easily go right on with it now.

R7: RANVET HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: Good race. I’m giving Chorlton Lane another chance. He’s had a trial since his last run when a beaten favourite but he’s a horse with plenty of raw talent and I’m happy to give him another chance. The odds-on favourite and boom Queenslander Freedom Rally is the one to beat. The dominance of his three wins in fast time at Eagle Farm have been eye-catching. Wategos is flying. He’s a better horse this preparation, he’s on an upward spiral and is another one backing up off a strong win last week. Best of the rest is Danish Prince. He’s underrated, the blinkers go on, he always runs well here at Rosehill from good draw and is a nice longshot.

Thomas: Freedom Rally has been very impressive reeling off a hat-trick of Brisbane wins in recent weeks, scoring by over two lengths each time. Promising sprinter with the ability to run fast closing sectionals. He’s well found in the market but is the one to beat. Former English galloper Chorlton Lane has had a freshen up since his last start fourth at Rosehill and he’s likely to be giving Freedman Rally a start from the turn but he will be finding the line strongly. Green Shadows is another being kept fresh with a trial between runs but he’s racing well although finding it hard to win. Wategos is in a rich vein of form and has the race fitness edge.

Freedom Rally has been too good for his rivals in Queensland. Picture: Trackside Photography

R8: THE ROSEBUD (1100m)

Dufficy: Which of these smart three-year-olds will be the first to put their “hand” up this spring? I’m gambling it might be The Instructor, Ray. He won his first two starts in Victoria and was in the market for the Blue Diamond but he just didn’t run the 1200m. He resumes at 1100m here and looks wound up after two nice trials. He should be in this for a long way. Tiz Invincible is a lovely filly but she was a late nomination, this race might be an afterthought. But she is a quality filly and will be in for a good spring. Cigar Flick got the job done first-up in a bunched finish but she can only improve. Introducing was a little green last preparation but has had two trial wins coming into this race and hopefully is more switched on now.

Thomas: I’m also siding with The Instructor. He showed plenty of talent earlier this season and his two trials in recent weeks indicate he’s returned in very good order. The Instructor has tactical speed and will be in a controlling position in this race which is always an advantage around the Rosehill 1100m course when the track is firm. Tiz Invincible is a maiden but she has been penalised for her Group 2 placing at Randwick during The Championships means she has to carry 58kg. However, there is no doubting her obvious potential and her recent trial win was very impressive. Cigar Flick is a promising filly coming off a strong first-up win. Fire Lane is an underrated filly who was competitive in some good races last season and she has trialled well leading into this race.

R9: TAB HANDICAP (1400m)

Dufficy: Pericles has been a star trialler in recent weeks, he’s a good talent and set to sprint well fresh. His class can probably get him home. I’m a big fan of Perfect Thought. He’s very talented and although I don’t know if he is wound up for this he has had two trials so I’m expecting an eye-catching performance. Kalino needs luck from a wide draw but he is up and running. Glint Of Silver is one of the few on-pace horses in this field and with no weight he can give a sight here.

Thomas: Pericles is a talent and best suited over a middle distance as he indicated with his win in the Autumn Classic and good seconds in the Rosehill Guineas and Frank Packer Plate last autumn. The Godolphin galloper resumes here but can sprint well fresh and he did look really impressive winning a Canterbury barrier trial last week, dominating a field of stayers. I don’t want to tip against him either. Perfect Thought is another promising four-year-old trialling well, Kalino is in top form and Group 1 winner Madame Pommery can sprint well fresh.

R10: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: I’m with Smashing Eagle. It was hard to miss his last run when he should have gone close. This is a harder race but it sets up well, he presents at the right time. Garza Blanca is resuming off a long break but the form around him last campaign is strong. He’s had two good trials leading into this race and the market has gravitated towards him. Kir Royale ran a much better race second-up and she has won at this track and distance. Delacour is an underrated Canberra mare but she has trialled well and is good odds.

Thomas: Garza Blanca is resuming off a long spell but he showed sprinting ability talent last season winning in fast time at Cranbourne. He was given his chance in Sydney last summer and was runner-up in both races as odds-on favourite. Garza Blanca has looked sharp in his two trials and looks set to make a winning return. I concede Smashing Eagle has a race fitness edge and will be hard to beat. Troach was never on the track first-up, she has trialled well since and is a big improver. Delacour is an each way chance.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis