Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race at Rosehill on Saturday.

Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas are both with Cylinder in the Run To The Rose at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big-race chances at the feature Rosehill Gardens meeting on Saturday.

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R1: MIDWAY HCP (1200m)

Ron Dufficy: I want to go with Bunker Hut here. He might want a touch further but he is very well graded in a race like this, I’m sure he has more upside than most of these and his trials have been acceptable. Extreme Spirit has a hope with the lightweight. He is coming back in distance but some of his form measures right up here. Defiant Heart over-achieved second-up in a much tougher race than this and although he hasn’t won beyond 1100m he looks talented. Bundeena has a good draw, fitter for recent racing and is ready to strike top form.

Ray Thomas: Bunker Hut does look the one to beat. He won well at Warwick Farm back in June before a spell and has trialled nicely leading into this race. As you pointed out, Ronnie, he is well placed in a Midway given he was competitive at stakes level last season. Glacier Queen has to overcome a horror barrier but her two runs back have been very good and she will be charging home. The consistent Iron Man is drawn to get the right run and Divine Breath can sprint well fresh.

R2: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)

Dufficy: I would have had Take The Kitty on top but with the likelihood he will be withdrawn I’m going for Miss Thatcher. She had no luck at Rosehill last start, she has the beautiful draw this time, maps closer and gets her opportunity to win. Ollie’s Secret is racing in good heart and back to 1400m should suit. I think he is right in the mix. Atmospheric Rock is backing up quickly after his first-up run but he caught everyone’s attention running on hard last week. Chase My Crown is over the odds as she is a very genuine Highway performer.

Thomas: I’m also treating Take The Kitty as a scratching as it seems likely he has been sold to Hong Kong interests. In his absence, I’ve also come up with Miss Thatcher. I liked her last start but she had no luck in Melody Again’s Highway at Rosehill. Missile Leader is promising but has drawn off the track. Atmospheric Rock is on the quick back-up after an excellent, albeit luckless return at Randwick, and Ollie’s Secret should be very competitive again.

R3: GOFFS ORBY SALE HCP (2400m)

Dufficy: I want to have a throw at the stumps with Casual Connection. He was well supported last start and although he didn’t do a great deal, the blinkers go back on and this race lacks depth. He appeals around $15. Too Much Caviar was very brave going down narrowly last start and although there is a little query first time at 2400m he does get complete control. Duke Of Hastings adds interest as he can stay and won at The Valley last start. Yukon could improve first try at this distance.

Thomas: Too Much Caviar is ready to win. He led for a long way and made Wineglass Bay work hard to beat him last start. The step up to 2400m is a slight query but he’s rock-hard fit and should get it all his own way in front. Yukon can mix his form but he’s capable when things go his way. Duke Of Hastings finished his race off strongly to win over 2500m at The Valley which stands him in good stead for this race. Casual Connection has been improved by two runs from a spell but does get to 2400m quickly.

R4: RANVET HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m interested in Unspoken. He won a trial at Hawkesbury nicely, I like these imports in their second Australian preparation, he is good fresh as a rule and we are getting a decent price. Gracilistyla is desperate to win another race and he gets last look at them again. Venelope gets the blinkers on after getting too far back last start. The better draw helps her chances. Danish Prince rides the speed, will try hard again and always runs well.

Thomas: Surely this is Gracilistyla’s day. He tends to get back in his races and needs luck in running but he’s racing consistently, enjoys this track and distance and is bursting to win a race. Danish Prince is very genuine, makes his own luck racing on speed and will be tough to run down. Ivan’s Hero has been good on both Sydney starts since switching from Melbourne and should go close. I’m not discounting Unspoken for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie.

Marquess can show what he’s capable of over the longer trip. Picture: Getty Images

R5: NSW THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS HCP (1800m)

Dufficy: I concede Marquess could have been better to the eye last start but I want to stay with him at 1800m. He has a staying pedigree that will help him come into his own at this distance range. Howgoodareyou is all style, she loves to ride the speed then quicken, and she looks a promising staying mare. Foujita San had no luck in the Marquess race last start and gets his chance to win another race. Pierossa is very one-paced but was OK last start and is a big improver.

Thomas: Foujita San should have been right in the finish last start. He looks ready to peak after two runs back from a spell and he meets Marquess 3kg better at the weights. Marquess is on a four-race winning streak and should be suited over 1800m. Howgoodareyou is in her first preparation but shows considerable promise and was very impressive winning here last start. Pierossa will be fitter and should be running on.

R6: SHERACO STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: This is a very interesting race, Ray. I love the way Zapateo is going, she has looked very sharp at the trials, I can see her landing in the box seat and prove hard to hold out. The other mare I think is flying is Espiona. With a lot of speed up front, the $20 is a really good price about her first-up, I’m convinced she is way over the odds. Zougotcha has the blinkers going on and is too good to dismiss off one first-up run which was over 1100m. No knock on I Am Me except she has two speed horses underneath her this week and has more to do to cross and gain control.

Thomas: I’ve also landed on Zapateo. She won the Birthday Card Stakes and Sapphire Stakes before successive Group 1 placings to close out her campaign last season. The Godolphin mare resumes off some brilliant barrier trial efforts and she will be in the finish. I Am Me is a brilliant mare and dominated the Missile Stakes. She can win again. Queen Of The Ball wasn’t suited by the Soft 7 track rating and still ran well to push Parisal when resuming in the Toy Show Quality. A firmer track is in her favour. Sunshine In Paris won the Group 1 Surround Stakes before spelling and the stable is hopeful she can be an Everest runner so she will be ready to sprint well here.

R7: MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400m)

Dufficy: Encap is short enough in a competitive race but I think Encap gets his chance from the good draw. He is very talented and should have won a race by now. Ducasse is massive odds just because of his terrible barrier. If anything falls into place for him then I’m sure he has as much talent as Encap but the price discrepancy is huge. Tom Kitten has more to do from a wide draw this time but he did monster them in the lead-up race, the Up And Coming Stakes. Raf Attack was an impressive midweek winner who has trialled well since.

Thomas: I’m also an Encap fan. He was flying home late for third in the Up And Coming Stakes and is suited going to 140m. He has the rails barrier and just needs to get the breaks from the turn to prove hard to hold out. Tom Kitten did beat Encap last start and meets that horse better at the weights here. The downside for Tom Kitten is his wide barrier. Ducasse and Zardozi have both drawn off the track but have the ability to be very competitive with the right runs.

R8: RUN TO THE ROSE (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m with Cylinder. I feel he is primed with a winning run under his belt, the stable is talking him up and I will cop the tip. Libertad is unbeaten and you can’t knock him. He has improvement to come and he could be very, very good. We are about to find out. Militarize is a good horse, he appears in great shape looking at him during a gallop between races last week. This is probably too short for him but I am not going to disrespect this colt. Militarize’s stablemate Chrysaor looks big odds here. He’s a lovely horse and does no work from barrier one.

Thomas: Cylinder was above himself in condition and had to work hard to win but his class shone through when resuming in the Vain Stakes. The brilliant Godolphin colt ran second in the Golden Slipper over this course and distance earlier this year and is drawn to get all the favours. The unbeaten Libertad was very good in the San Domenico and can only be improved. Moravia ran a blinder to beat all but Libertad at just his second start and he might be the big improver. Don Corleone was twice Group 1-placed last season and he should be hitting the line hard late in this race.

Argentia is Duff’s best value at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

R9: THEO MARKS STAKES (1300m)

Dufficy: I like Argentia. I know she hasn’t won for a while but her two runs for Joe Pride have been fantastic, the trip is ideal, she’s third-up and there are no excuses for her not to be hard to beat. Tamerlane could be the danger. I know this is a hard race for him to resume in but he’s flying at the trials and he loves Roeshill. I feel he can’t do anything but run well here at odds. Madame Pommery was very good first-up and Pericles has franked the form. If she can put two together she will be hard to beat. Kovalica is an outstanding prospect resuming. He has looked sharp enough at the trials and don’t be surprised if he goes close.

Thomas: Madame Pommery was unlucky not to have reeled in Pericles when resuming at Rosehill last month. Pericles then won the Tramway Stakes last week to underline the form. Madame Pommery has drawn the inside barrier and enjoys some cut in the ground. The boom on Kovalica is massive and he will be finishing off his race strongly. Argentia was beaten by a smart horse in Buenos Noches last start and that form reads well for this race. Nugget is a talented, underrated horse and although he hasn’t won at less than 1600m, he should be in the mix.

R10: PRECISE AIR HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: Red Card is bet of the day for mine. I just see her owning this race from the front and over the Rosehill 1100m we know horses that do that are very hard to beat. Extremely Lucky has to get another chance on a dry track, back to 1100m with the blinkers on. Kote is really going well at the trials but he’s still learning his trade. If things fall into place for him he has a good winning chance. Smashing Eagle is a talented horse but he prefers to be ridden quietly early and needs a lot to go his way.

Thomas: A competitive race to close out the meeting. Airman is resuming but he is a promising sprinter, unbeaten first-up and goes into this race off an easy trial. Team Hawkes have managed Airman well, giving him every chance to develop and this could be his campaign. Red Card is a very talented mare and will be hard to catch. Smashing Eagle has the ability to reel off fast closing sectionals and he will be charging home with his lightweight. Kote has impressed at the trials and will be hard to beat.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis