Ray Thomas’ Inside Mail: Is Tom Kitten’s luck about to change?

After a string of luckless minor placings, trainer James Cummings is confident Tom Kitten’s supreme acceleration can land him the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes.

Tom Kitten wins the Fernhill at Randwick in April. Picture: Jeremy Ng / Getty Images

Godolphin trainer James Cummings his hoping a combination of Tom Kitten’s acceleration and some overdue luck in running will give the colt his chance to win the Group 1 $2 million Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Tom Kitten won the Up And Coming Stakes to start his spring campaign but has been luckless since with minor placings in the Ming Dynasty Quality, Dulcify Stakes and Gloaming Stakes.

Cummings said Tom Kitten’s fast-finishing effort to finish a close second in the Gloaming was particularly meritorious.

“He shouldn’t have finished as close as he did after making a long run from the half-mile, and after a bumping duel with another runner,’’ Cummings said.

“Most horses give up the ghost chasing, but he was proving to be the unlucky runner of the race.’’

Raf Attack made his own luck and and finished best in the Gloaming!

Tom Kitten was impressive in second.@[e-mail]/jY4VHJv0lO

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 14, 2023

• Ray and Duff’s full Randwick analysis and tips, plus Cox Plate

Cummings believes the inside barrier gives Tom Kitten his chance to win the final Group 1 race in Sydney this year.

“Barrier one gives the horses the best chance to full of energy coming to the 350m and that’s hopefully going to be the difference in the Spring Champion Stakes,’’ Cummings said.

“He looks a classic staying horse but he’s got a lot of speed in his pedigree. I’d like to think his turn of foot can get him out of trouble.’’

Cummings is also hopeful a favourable barrier draw will give Parisal a winning edge in the $2 million The Invitation (1400m).

• Tony Brassel’s top five for the Spring Champion Stakes

“The map gives her the best opportunity to run seven furlongs (1400m) right out,’’ Cummings said.

“Given her pedigree, she’s entitled to run seven furlongs but she’s got to prove she can do it at a solid pace against some extremely competent opposition.

“Parisal has got the form lines and she’s going particularly well, certainly well enough to be a competitive chance.’’

"He's going to look the winner at some stage."

Jockey @Reganbayliss discusses the chances of Raf Attack in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes and Parisal in The Invitation at Randwick on Saturday. @[e-mail]/Pbmydt7p00

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 26, 2023

RANDWICK BIG BETS, MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Chief Conductor $2.90-$2.70-$2.90, Vindication $8-$7
Race 2: Sebonack $4.60-$4.20, Pioneer River $4.60-$4.40, Dollar Magic $11-$8
Race 3: Florino $4.60-$3.30
Race 4: Sequestered $3.20-$2.70 after a $5,000 place bet at $1.45, Territory Express $7-$6
Race 5: Mumbai Muse $4.40-$4.20, Le Parrain $11-$7.50, Midnight Opal $15-$11
Race 6: Numerian $6-$4.20, No Compromise $6-$4.20, Renaissance Woman $8-$5, Huetor $11-$5.50
Race 7: Raf Attack $8-$6.50
Race 8: Espiona $3.60-$3.30, Magic Time $4.60-$3.80
Race 9: Arctic Glamour $2.80-$1.95 with bets of $2,000 at $2.10, $2,000 at $2.05
Race 10: Gringotts $2.80-$2.50, Fall For Cindy $5.50-$4.20, Felix Majestic $8.50-$5

MOONEE VALLEY BIG BEST, MARKET MOVERS
Race 9: Romantic Warrior $4-$3.90 after some big bets including $20,000 at $4, $10,000 at $4, $7,000 at $4, Mr Brightside $8.50-$7 after a $2,000 bet at $8, Gold Trip $9-$8 after a bet of $10,000/$30,000 e/w at $8/$2.60, Fangirl $9-$8

RANDWICK EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 2,5,11,17
Race 4: 3,7,8
Race 5: 2,3,9,10
Race 6: 1,5,9,10

RANDWICK QUADDIE
Race 7: 2,5,6,12
Race 8: 2,5,7
Race 9: 2,6,9,11
Race 10: 3,4,8,10

PRICE CHECK
Arctic Glamour (race 9) has been the best-backed runner at Royal Randwick and has firmed from $2.80 into $1.95 favouritism after some consistent support including bets of $2,000 at $2.10 and $2,000 at $2.05. There has also been a $5,000 place bet at $1.45 on Sequestered (race 4). The Cox Plate at The Valley has attracted some huge bets with Hong Kong champ Romantic Warrior firming as favourite from $4-$3.90 after some big bets including $20,000 at $4, $10,000 at $4, $7,000 at $4. Gold Trip is $9-$8 after a bet of $10,000/$30,000 e/w at $8/$2.60.

Another two-year-old winner for @GaiWaterhouse1 & Adrian Bott with Taormina making an impressive debut at Warwick Farm defeating Arctic Glamour with I Am Famous in third. @[e-mail]/BSEUg9Bj3k

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) June 28, 2023

TRIAL POINTERS
Vindication (race 1) has managed just two wins from 14 starts but he has finished runner-up four times and hasn’t always been blessed with the best of luck – Midways included. The Jarrod Austin-trained son of Deep Field clocked in last of the 10 runners in a very strong 1100m Benchmark 72 at Canterbury won by Way To The Stars beating Jedibeel. Vindication was entitled to drop out in such a fast, high pressure race, given he was three wide for the trip. He has been back to the trials since and finished a close third to Phearson and Bacchanalia in his 1000m Hawkesbury heat.

Vindication is a top chance in the first at Randwick. Picture: Bradley Photos

Atmosphere (race 2) is yet to win or place in all four first-up starts but Saturday will be one of few times that he can lay a justifiable claim to be the best horse in the race, Consider this; he beat Kovalica home in the South Pacific Classic at The Championships and then went on to finish runner-up to Hawaii Five Oh in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Looked the part when an unhurried fourth of five in a Hawkesbury trial last week.

"The Guineas is over. Just like that."

Surf's up at @hawkesburyrc as @nashhot and Hawaii Five Oh dominate the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas beating Atmosphere with Razeta in third. @[e-mail]/QTIzNQSXu9

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) April 22, 2023

SECTIONAL STARS
Bandi’s Boy (race 3) is a lightly-raced four-year-old from the Danny Williams stable. Officially registered with the Stud Book as ‘black’, Bandi’s Boy has raced just four times so far beginning with his fifth in the Kindergarten Stakes last year. He then won a 1100m 2YO handicap at Randwick beating Zougotcha. The son of The Brothers War handled himself admirably first-up off a long absence when a closing sixth in that 1100m Benchmark 78 run in a fast 1.02.71s.

No Compromise (race 6) lines up for his 40th start on Saturday when he contests the Craven Plate where he seeks to join an honour roll which boasts the likes of Carbine, Gloaming, Phar Lap (times three), Tulloch, Ming Dynasty, Tie The Knot, etc. No Compromise is building up nicely to a peak performance this campaign. The Chris Waller-trained son of Pins finished fourth in the Cameron Handicap over 1500m. He was hands-down one of the runs of the race in the Hill Stakes coming from 14th of 14 at the turn to be beaten two lengths by Montefilia.

"Here we go again, another close one!"

A thriller in the Group 1 Furphy Metropolitan with @TommyBerry21 and No Compromise nosing out @mcacajamez and Le Don De Vie in the 2400m test with Realm Of Flowers a close third. @tabcomaupic.twitter.com/HvYwOCX3jE

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 1, 2022

BEST BET
Sequestered (race 4) has been in brilliant form this spring, reeling in Fall For Cindy to win first-up at Rosehill then an even more impressive effort at Warwick Farm beating Body Bob. The form around the Godolphin mare is very good, she won third-up last preparation and the Randwick 1600m course should suit. She ticks all the boxes.

VALUE
Glad You Think So (race 7) is out to a very backable price at $23 for the Spring Champion Stakes. He won successive races at the provincials before his competitive fifth behind Raf Attack in the Gloaming Stakes when beaten less than a length. Tom Kitten was second that day and is the $2.30 favourite yet Get You Think So continues to ease in betting. Glad You Think So will run a strong 2000m and is great each way value.

Originally published as Ray Thomas’ Inside Mail: Is Tom Kitten’s luck about to change?