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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis and best bets for Randwick on Saturday: $9 value play

Ron Dufficy thinks an each-way priced runner who boasts a devastating sprint can score a nice collect for punters at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Get Ray and Duff’s tips and analysis for the 10-race card.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
September 6, 2024 - 11:34AM
Ron Dufficy is keen to back Thunderlips at a price at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos
Ron Dufficy is keen to back Thunderlips at a price at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances on a bumper Concorde Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.
Ray Thomas (left) and Ron Dufficy.

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DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 8 No.10 ZARDOZI

DUFF’S NEXT BEST
Race 10 No.8 THUNDERLIPS

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RACE 1: MIDWAY HCP (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: A tough start to the day. I am leaning to the form horse, THE EXTREME CAT (5). He’s very genuine, he rarely runs badly, and James McDonald sticks with him. He just needs that touch of luck from the draw and he’s right in the finish again. HERB (3) was just slow out and got too far back last time. I think 1400m suits him better and he might be worth another chance. NORTHERN EYES (4) is fresh blood here. He’s got his confidence up at the provincials, winning his last three quite nicely, and he is ready for the task here. NOVEMBER FALLS (14) is off a little freshen-up which might be good for her, she does race well first-up with a break between runs.

Ray Thomas: I’m going wide here with POWERS OF OPAL (15). She is still a maiden after three starts and is giving away age and experience to all her rivals but she has a future. I liked the way she found the line behind Shohisha when resuming at the Warwick Farm midweeks, finishing a half length away in fourth placing. The bigger track and 1400m suits, she gets in with only 50kg after the claim and will be competitive at each way odds. NORTHERN EYES (4) is in rare form for the Kim Waugh stable and could easily make it four wins in a row. THE EXTREME CAT (5) has to deal with another wide draw but he is racing very consistently. HERB (3) is drawn to get the right run.

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RACE 2: PRECISE AIR HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: Another tricky race, Ray. I am convinced SPRING LEE (3) doesn’t run 1200m so I like her back to 1100m in a fast race here. I think she’s hard to hold out. In saying that, MARTINI MUMMA (5) is a huge query here. We’ve got no sight of her in a recent trial but she has shown plenty of talent in her short career so if she is in order, she will be very hard to beat. CONFESS OUR DREAMS (6) has been trialling well, she is very sharp and appears a little untapped so she is capable of shaping right up. LOST (1) has obvious talent but does a lot wrong. Maybe a faster run race helps her settle better.

Thomas: MARTINI MUMMA (5) reeled off three consecutive wins by big margins before her fourth in the Denise’s Joy Stakes to close out her three-year-old season. She’s a talented mare with the ability run fast times. She’s well drawn and gets James McDonald. SPRING LEE (3) didn’t quite attack the line as expected last start but she is peaking after two runs from a spell and, as you suggested Ronnie, the drop back to 1100m suits. LOST (1) was impressive at the midweeks then disappointed last start. She is worth another chance. CONFESS OUR DREAMS (6) has an unbeaten first-up record and she trialled very impressively at Hawkesbury ahead of her return to racing.

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RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY (1200m)

Dufficy: I am going MELODY AGAIN (4), another horse I’ve selected with a wide draw which is dangerous. Melody Again has got a bit of a mind on her own. The gear changes seem to really work with her the other day so I think if she can execute well, she’s got her foot right on the till. As does LISZTOMANIA (5), he’s busting to win another race. He is another one drawn wide but he is fit and well and deserves a change of luck. FIELD OF MYRTLE (8) comes out of a couple of decent Queensland races and Matt Dunn can produce a result so she has to be respected. POINT BASSE (7) showed a lot of talent last prep. I think he resented the blinkers first-up and with the gear change with him, I think he is a chance of turning that form around.

Thomas: MELODY AGAIN (4) has been improved by two runs from a spell including an eye-catching effort when she came from last and ran third to World Alliance at Randwick two weeks ago. She finds herself in an easier race but has to contend with an outside barrier. With any sort of luck in running, she will be in the finish. ATMOSPHERIC ROCK (2) was very good winning an 1100m Highway here first-up and is probably better suited at 1200m. FLORINO (6) featured prominently in the stewards report after disappointing first-up but has since won a barrier trial well and must be given another chance. I’m also prepared to give POINT BASSE (7) another chance.

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RACE 4: SYDNEY CITY LEXUS CITY CUP (2400m)

Dufficy: I am left with CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) here. I thought he plugged on well over an unsuitable distance at his Aussie debut so this is a perfect race for him and I think he’s very hard to beat. STRATHTAY (6) has been impressive the way he has attacked the line in easier class. With that big drop in weight here, he’s down 7kg, he is going to have a lot of supporters. REDSTONE WELL (4) has had a month’s freshen-up since a much improved run third-up. This looks like a good target for him. SIR LUCAN (2) didn’t do much first-up, he can mix his form, but he is quite capable in this grade.

Thomas: STRATHTAY (6) is difficult to get away from, Ronnie. He won three Saturday races during winter and seems to be getting better the longer his preparation after winning with authority and ease over the Randwick 2400m course last start. He’s up in grade but drops 7kg. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1) is a Group 2 winner at Royal Ascot who resumed after 14 months out with a competitive, unplaced effort behind Golden Path. He’s back out to his right distance range now and expect a sharp improvement. REDSTONE WELL (4) comes out of the Golden Path race where he ran a good third and was well backed at Randwick two weeks ago only to be scratched at the barrier. He has trialled well since and looks hard to beat. SIR LUCAN (2) is a good stayer who can improve sharply.

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RACE 5: PATRICK CAMPION HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: ZEYREK (1) may have 65kg (less 3kg after the claim) but he is the class horse here. I know there are no recent wins and even though he ran last in the Winx Stakes, I thought it was quite a good run so that has to be the form here. I’m guessing for dangers here. I’ll say ALMANIA (2). He looks trialled up pretty well and is set to run a bold race fresh. GALERON (4) hasn’t raced for a month and it is two years since his last win but he has a race fitness edge and is well placed there. ROMA AVENUE (7) bounced back to form winning second up and does have a nice racing style.

Thomas: FLOATING (6) resumed in the Goulburn Cup and is still trying to get out when he went to the line untested for ninth behind Green Shadow. Floating is an under-rated horse who races well at Randwick and although he is staying at a mile, he didn’t get tested last start so he should still have the speed in his legs. He’s a terrific each way bet. GALERON (4) stretched Space Age over the Randwick mile then ran an even race behind Golden Path. He does look well placed here. ZEYREK (1) is the class horse but has to carry that big weight. ROMA AVENUE (7) was an upset winner at Rosehill last start and although this is a tougher assignment he drops considerably in weight.

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RACE 6: FURIOUS STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: MANAAL (1) appeared to have her chance first-up when a beaten favourite but she was close up and the weights are just back in her favour here with no penalties so I think she is hard enough to beat. EL MORZILLO (4) is dangerous, the Queenslander. She did a really good job going right through her first racing preparation and did some good things over the Queensland winter carnival. DRIFTING (3) is another with different form. She has gate speed to clear that wide draw and run really well. AMEENA (2) did win the lead-up and certainly bears a lot of respect.

Thomas: MANAAL (1) loomed up to win but might have peaked on her run when the closest of thirds to Ameena in the Silver Shadow Stakes. They clash again here but Manaal does meet her rival on 3kg better weight terms. AMEENA (2) did finish her race off very strongly last start and will be hard to beat again. SHOHISHA (12) impressed at Warwick Farm on debut, racing up to her good barrier trial form. She jumps sharply in grade but is a promising filly. WINNING PROPOSAL (10) had a slight setback and missed The Rosebud last month but she ran well in a strong Hawkesbury barrier trial last week. LAZZURA (8) is a promising filly resuming and TOO DARN LIZZIE (6) caught the eye in the Amelia’s Jewel trial.

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RACE 7: CONCORDE STAKES (1000m)

Dufficy: I am going with a minor upset in AFT CABIN (3). He is a gelding this preparation and I have loved both of his trials. He was unlucky first-up at this track and distance last preparation, fresh, and I am convinced he is going to run boldly from a good draw. GIGA KICK (1) is a terrific sprinter on the comeback trail. His latest trial was great. It’s not his best distance, 1000m, but he is going to be charging late and is still a chance of rounding them up. REMARQUE (5) is another 1000m, I’ll say specialist, and his fresh form is excellent. Four of his five wins have been fresh and 1000m suits so he can run well. BELLA NIPOTINA (4) is a high quality mare. She just never runs bad and she’ll savage the line late in her own right.

Thomas: GIGA KICK (1) has had a jump-out and two barrier trials to prepare for his return after nearly a year on the sidelines. The 2022 Everest winner showed he is still a force to be reckoned with after an impressive barrier trial win at Randwick last week. He looks ready to go and is the one to beat. BELLA NIPOTINA (4) is an outstanding mare who was in career-best form in Brisbane during winter. Her barrier trial effort when zooming home for a close third last week was a great pointer for this race. PRIVATE EYE (2) is very good fresh and is sharp enough to be competitive here. REMARQUE (5) did win this race last year and is trialling very well.

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RACE 8: CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: ZARDOZI (10) looks the class horse here. I think she was great first-up and she had more improvement than most coming out of the Winx Stakes. Hopefully she gets a little tempo up-front here and she can round them up. BUCKAROO (1) comes out of the same race as well and I thought he did enough. I still think there is a good win somewhere in him, it could well be Saturday. ADELAIDE RIVER (4) is better than what we saw in those two runs over winter. He is a very well-performed horse who has trialled up nicely. HINGED (9) never runs badly, doesn’t win often, but she just gets that cosy run from that inside draw.

Thomas: ZARDOZI (10) does look the best of the day, Ronnie. She ran very well in the Winx Stakes to finish sixth behind Via Sistina and finds herself in a winnable race here. Zardozi did win the Phar Lap Stakes second-up in autumn. BUCKAROO (1) comes out of the Winx Stakes where he finished about a length behind Zardozi. He was doing his best work on the line and is better getting out to 1600m. HINGED (9) was working to the line well in the Spring Preview when resuming and she does have a good second-up record although her last win was more than two years ago. POPTRONIC (8) is a Group 1 winner in England is one to follow.

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RACE 9: TRAMWAY STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: I am going with AMELIA’S JEWEL (8). I think she is here to make a statement first-up for the new stable. The trials are acceptable. She is a good racehorse and she does usually sprint well fresh. I think FREEDOM RALLY (10) is the danger. He has got residual fitness from Queensland and trialled well back at home. ARCTIC GLAMOUR (14) savaged the line there first-up, 1400m suits her better with a light weight. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (3) is ticking along nicely for the Epsom and will run another really good race here.

Thomas: AMELIA’S JEWEL (8) is an outstanding mare having her first start for the Neasham-Archibald stable. I liked her trial win at Hawkesbury when she accelerated brilliantly at the top of the straight. She’s a better chaser so watch for her to be closing fast. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (3) was doing just that last start when he hit the line well for fourth behind a rampant Joliestar in the Show County. The step up to 1400m is more to his liking. ARCTIC GLAMOUR (14) ran a blinder first-up when a close second to Schwarz in the Missile which augurs well for her chances here. KINTYRE (15) showed promise last season and his trials have been very sharp.

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RACE 10: SALIX HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: I am quite keen on THUNDERLIPS (8). It looks a hard race on paper but I just think with all the speed up front here, it gives him an opportunity at 1200m at Randwick to get over the top of them. I like the way he has come up, I like the way he looks. The map looks kind to IRON MAN (12) and he’s had that little freshen to get over that hard last run. WORLD ALLIANCE (9) has had some hard recent racing but continues to hold form. GITALONG (11) should give a good on pace sight again and deserves a change of luck.

Thomas: WORLD ALLIANCE (9) has won five of his 10 starts and showed determination to over this course and distance last start. WELL TIMED (13) won a Midway with authority last start and is an improver but has to contend with the extreme outside gate. THUNDERLIPS (8) is another emerging sprinter who could be the knockout horse. CONGREGATION (17) had a bit of a boom on him last season and resumes today with a good barrier and James McDonald in the saddle.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips, analysis and best bets for Randwick on Saturday: $9 value play

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Original URL: https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/horse-racing/nsw-racing/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-racebyrace-tips-analysis-and-best-bets-for-randwick-on-saturday-9-value-play/news-story/5fa11f588bd75bf2d0b98f4a273506f1