Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for The Everest day at Randwick

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy debate the chances of all 12 sprinters in the $20m The Everest and preview the rest of the Randwick program.

I Wish I Win is aiming to become the first Golden Eagle winner to salute in The Everest. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances of every runner in the $20m The TAB Everest at Royal Randwick and preview the rest of Saturday’s meeting.

1. I WISH I WIN

5yo black gelding

By Savabeel from Make A Wish

Trainers: Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman

Jockey: Luke Nolen

Race record: 17:6-5-4

Prizemoney: $7,828,053

Major wins: Golden Eagle, Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes

Recent form: 1s231s3

Ron Dufficy:I Wish I Win is one of the trump cards in The Everest. He’s been to Sydney twice for wins in the Golden Eagle and TJ Smith Stakes. It’s a tricky draw but I’m not putting too much into that. If he gets into the clear at the right time he will be awfully hard to hold out.

Ray Thomas: I Wish I Win had that run over 1400m seven weeks ago when third in the Memsie Stakes to prepare him for The Everest. The rails barrier presents some issues for jockey Luke Nolen but with any luck in running, his elite finishing speed makes him the one to beat.

Slot-holder: Trackside Media

Did you know: I Wish I Win could become the first to win the nation’s two richest races, Golden Eagle and The Everest.

2. PRIVATE EYE

6yo brown gelding

By Al Maher from Confidential Queen

Trainer: Joe Pride

Jockey: Nash Rawiller

Race record: 28:11-3-1

Prizemoney: $6,871,810

Major wins: Nature Strip Stakes, Group 1 Epsom Handicap

Recent form: 7s405s1

Dufficy:Private Eye has had a beautiful trial since his win in The Shorts. He seems to be going as well as ever and his form on dry tracks is nearly untouchable. He is going to be hard to beat.

Thomas: Private Eye raced closer than expected in The Shorts and wore down Overpass to win impressively. His trial without blinkers between runs was sensational. One of the main chances.

Slot-holder: Max Whitby and Neil Werrett

Did you know: Private Eye can become the third horse to win The Shorts-The Everest double after Classique Legend (2020) and Redzel (2017).

3. THINK ABOUT IT

5yo bay gelding

By So You Think from Tiare

Trainer: Joe Pride

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Race record: 10:9-0-1

Prizemoney: $2,848,175

Major wins: Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap, Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup

Recent form: 111111s

Dufficy:Think About It is an amazing horse with an unbelievable record. He keeps finding a way to win, showing great desire in his races. He has a lovely draw which gives him room to move and he’s right in the race.

Thomas: Think About It has won all eight races this year and although he doesn’t beat his rivals by big margins, he gets the job as he demonstrated in the Premiere Stakes. Outstanding racehorse with a fierce will to win. He’s drawn to get the run of the race.

Slot-holder: Newgate and GPI Racing

Did you know: No horse has won the Premiere Stakes-The Everest double.

Think About It (left) has won his past eight race including the Premiere Stakes last start. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

4. MAZU

5yo bay gelding

By Maurice from Chatelaine

Trainers: Peter and Paul Snowden

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Race record: 20:7-2-4

Prizemoney: $6,902,350

Major wins: Group 1 Doomben 10,000, Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint

Recent form: s5363s9

Dufficy:Mazu drew wide first-up and it was a forgive run. He was a late scratching since before returning to the barrier trials where he went nicely. He needs a lot to go right for him from his wide draw.

Thomas: Mazu did miss that vital lead-up run in the Premiere Stakes but his barrier trial effort was solid. He’s an underrated sprinter who did run a very good third in The Everest last year. He’s over the odds.

Slot-holder: Arrowfield and The Star

Did you know: Mazu means first place in Japanese.

5. OVERPASS

5yo bay gelding

By Vancouver from Walkway

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Josh Parr

Race record: 23:6-5-0

Prizemoney: $4,152,000

Major wins: The Quokka, Inglis Sprint

Recent form: 690s12s2

Dufficy:Overpass is very sharp and probably gets control up front. If that is fitting on the day he is going to attract a lot of support. He will be hard to get past with that soft lead. He’s ready to go.

Thomas: Overpass has only had three starts this year for his all-the-way win in The Quokka and narrow losses in the Doomben 10,000 behind Giga Kick and The Shorts won by Private Eye. He’s got the right form and will be the one to catch.

Slot-holder: Australian Turf Club and RAM Racing

Did you know: Overpass hasn’t won in eight attempts at Royal Randwick.

6. BUENOS NOCHES

4yo bay or brown horse

By Supido from Koi

Trainer: Matthew Smith

Jockey: Dylan Gibbons (a)

Race record: 9:3-1-2

Prizemoney: $672,650

Major wins: Group 3 Show County Qlty, Listed Poseidon Stakes

Recent form: 3s57s13

Dufficy:Buenos Noches has had two runs and a trial which is perfect for him so the timing is right. He was back in distance last start when very good in The Shorts. He has a big finish and will be right there.

Thomas: Buenos Noches was impressive first-up winning the Show County Quality then his third placing in The Shorts was arguably an even better run. He’s a huge talent and is blessed with a powerful finish.

Slot-holder: TAB

Did you know: Buenos Noches cost only $40,000 as a yearling.

Buenos Noches will be better suited back up to 1200m. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

7. HAWAII FIVE OH

4yo bay horse

By I Am Invincible from Aloha

Trainers: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: James McDonald

Owners: John Singleton, Gerry Harvey, Ray Hadley

Race record: 10:3-3-2

Prizemoney: $815,975

Major wins: Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas, Group 3 Fred Best Classic

Recent form: 2113s62

Dufficy:Hawaii Five Oh is a lovely horse and produced a great run over 1200m second up. He is sure to be strong again late but the little question mark I have is whether he is looking for 1400m now.

Thomas: Hawaii Five Oh unleashed a tremendous surge from near last to just miss reeling in Think About It in the Premiere Stakes. A giant of a horse and despite his awkward barrier, his last start effort proved he has the ability to win this race.

Slot-holder: Aquis

Did you know: No four-year-old has won The Everest.

8. ALCOHOL FREE

6yo bay mare

By No Nay Never from Plying

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Craig Williams

Owner: Yulong

Race record: 17:6-1-3

Prizemoney: $2,778,525

Major wins: Group 1 Coronation Stakes (UK), Group 1 Sussex Stakes (UK), Group 1 July Cup (UK)

Recent form: 913s0s4

Dufficy: The stable has had plenty of confidence in Alcohol Free but I’m not convinced she is sharp enough to show her best form at 1200m. I feel she might need a bit further under Australian conditions.

Thomas: Alcohol Free is a three-time Group 1 winner in England and her first-up fourth in the Premiere Stakes was a sound Everest trial. However, this is a deep race and she will need to improve considerably to be in the finish.

Slot-holder: Yulong

Did you know: No mare has won or even managed to place in The Everest.

9. IN SECRET

4yo bay mare

By I Am Invincible from Eloping

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Zac Purton

Owners: Godolphin

Race record: 12:6-3-1

Prizemoney: $3,081,850

Major wins: Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes

Recent form: 1317s24

Dufficy:In Secret has been prepared perfectly to peak on the day. The barrier draw doesn’t help her chances and she will need a brilliant Zac Purton ride, which he is capable of as we all know.

Thomas: In Secret has beaten most of these before with her brilliant Newmarket Handicap win earlier this year. She is an outstanding sprinter and would have been one of my top selections with a better barrier.

Slot-holder: Godolphin

Did you know: Godolphin has had three near misses in The Everest with runner-up Bivouac (2020) and minor placegetters Trekking (2019) and Osborne Bulls (2018).

10. ESPIONA

5yo bay mare

By Extreme Choice from Dahooil

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Race record: 15: 6-2-1

Prizemoney: $1,108,215

Major wins: Group 1 Coolmore Classic, Group 2 Golden Pendant

Recent form: 6117s21

Dufficy: I would not have thought we would be talking about Espiona until last start when she showed that explosive turn of speed to win the Golden Pendant. She gets tucked way on the inside from her good draw and is coming into play late for this race.

Thomas: Espiona is a quirky mare but she has brilliant acceleration as she showed in her Golden Pendant win last start. Barrier three is ideal because she will just settle behind the speed with cover. One of the final selections for the race but she has a definite winning chance.

Slot-holder: Chris Waller Racing

Did you know: The Chris Waller Racing slot has won two Everests with Nature Strip (2021) and Yes Yes Yes (2019).

Espiona emerged as an Everest contender after her sizzling win in the Golden Pendant. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

11. SHINZO

3yo bay colt

By Snitzel from Samaready

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Race record: 5:2-1-1

Prizemoney: $3,026,250

Major wins: Group 1 Golden Slipper, Group 2 Pago Pago Stakes

Recent form: 3211s9

Dufficy:Shinzo is a Golden Slipper winner and has trialled nicely since an inconclusive first-up run which makes him hard to assess. However, he’s too good a horse not to give another chance, too.

Thomas: Shinzo struck a rich vein of form in autumn culminating with his brilliant Golden Slipper win. Nothing went right for him in the Golden Rose but that 1400m run will stand him in good stead for The Everest. He will be charging home.

Slot-holder: Coolmore

Did you know: Shinzo is the first Golden Slipper-winning colt to start in The Everest.

12. CYLINDER

3yo bay colt

By Exceed And Excel from Circular

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Zac Lloyd (a)

Race record: 9:4-3-1

Prizemoney: $1,571,740

Major wins: Group 2 Todman Stakes, Group 2 Run To The Rose

Recent form: 127s113

Dufficy:Cylinder is a very fit and classy three-year-old who arguably should have won the Golden Rose. He has a lovely racing style, he bounds out of the barriers, blinkers go on which is a positive move and he maps well from the good draw.

Thomas: Cylinder is a seasoned, tough colt who was second in the Golden Slipper back in autumn and a luckless third in the Golden Rose last start. He’s drawn to settle on speed in a controlling position and with his light weight, he’s going to be very competitive.

Slot-holder: James Harron Bloodstock

Did you know: Cylinder’s rider Zac Lloyd along with Dylan Gibbons (Buenos Noches) are the first apprentices to ride in The Everest.

SUMMARY

Dufficy: I’m with I Wish I Win. I just feel he was underdone first-up in the Memsie Stakes and this has been the plan all along for Peter Moody. I Wish I Win’s only had the two Sydney runs for wins in the Golden Eagle and TJ Smith Stakes and that form speaks for itself. I’ll leave it to Luke Nolen to work out when to get off the fence at the right time. I think Private Eye is absolutely airborne. I’ve loved his trial since he won The Shorts. Think About It has the ideal barrier and is more adaptable than most. I will throw in the three-year-old Cylinder who just has the racing style to suit. He will be in the right position and is among the main chances for sure.

Thomas: Think About It is a winning machine and goes into The Everest after scoring his eighth consecutive win with a typically tough effort in the Premiere Stakes. He is drawn to get the right run just off the speed and seems to always find a way to win. Crack colt Cylinder is tough and genuine, he settles on speed and with his lightweight, will be very competitive. Overpass jumps straight to the front and if he gets any peace in front, then he’s going to look the winner for a long way in the sprint to the finish. I Wish I Win probably settles three pairs back on the rail but if he finds clear space from the turn, watch out.

RANDWICK TIPS

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BET

R8 No.12: BENEDETTA

R1: ST LEGER STAKES (2600m)

Ron Dufficy: I’m with Cleveland. I feel he will appreciate getting to 2600m and he has excuses in the Newcastle Gold Cup and The Metropolitan. This looks a lovely race for him with James McDonald a favourable draw. His main danger is his stablemate Kalapour who sets up well for this trip. Benaud has been chipping away nicely and is in good form. The import Land Legend is the query runner but he has the lightweight.

Ray Thomas: Cleveland should have finished closer at his last two starts but this is his chance. I agree the step out to 2600m is going to suit and he will be hard to beat. I’ve got a Kris Lees quinella with Kalapour scratched from Caulfield to run here. He comes off a Group 1 placing in The Metropolitan which reads well for this race. Land Legend seems to have settled in well at Canterbury and has to be rated as one of the main chances. Major Beel did win an ATC Australian Derby earlier this year and will take some running down.

R2: WORLD POOL HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m a fan of Garza Blanca. I like the horse and he is well-placed back to a Benchmark 78. All he has to do is cope with the big weight and he will be hard to beat. Grebeni is an interesting horse who has had only one trial coming into this race but he showed he is a horse with plenty of upside last preparation. He is a market and yard watch. Dynamic Impact is big odds but he was very good late second-up and 1400m suits. The form around him is good. Sequestered is a nice mare on the way up and can be competitive if she gets a run.

Thomas: I see this race similarly with Garza Blanca on top of Grebeni. Garza Blanca is fit and in great form and 1400m should suit him. Grebeni is resuming but showed plenty of talent when last in work. Ivan’s Hero can take up a position, he’s racing in good form and is over the odds. Body Bob faces his biggest test but he has reeled off four successive wins and will take running down.

Garza Blanca will be hard to beat back in Benchmark 78 grade. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

R3: REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400m).

Dufficy: I could not have been more impressed with Arctic Glamour’s midweek win. It was only a maiden but it had a real X-factor about it which has been put into her price which is very short. She is hard to go around. Joliestar did enough first-up and did beat Arctic Glamour last preparation. Broadcaster got a mile back at Rosehill last start and ran into plenty of trouble, it was hard to miss her run. The same goes for Kind Words who was heavily backed at Newcastle but nothing went right after a slow start. She gets blinkers today.

Thomas: Arctic Glamour’s acceleration to win first-up at Rosehill was something else. She settled off midfield but taken wide in the straight, she zoomed past her rivals and wasn’t tested in the run to the line even though she put four lengths on the chasing pack. This is a significant rise in grade from a midweek maiden to a stakes race but she looks well above average. Kundalini is still a maiden after three starts but she has obvious ability and gets her chance there. Joliestar’s first-up second at Warwick Farm in fast time was impressive and the improving Queen Of Dragons comes off an easy midweek win.

R4: GLOAMING STAKES (1800m)

Dufficy: I’m having a throw at the stumps here with Tannhauser. He’s had five weeks and a trial between runs where he was acceptable in the Ming Dynasty over an unsuitable distance. I’m expecting a big improvement here at Randwick. Tom Kitten is the one to beat. He just lost contact with the field last time but from the better draw here he should get the right run. Snowman was very good last start and he fits into the picture here. Ravello got too far back last start and will run a much better race third-up and out to this distance.

Thomas: I’ve also gone wide here with Glad You Think So. I was taken by the way he fought back after being headed to win over 1850m at Newcastle. He is faced by a big jump in grade but he’s showing staying promise and is way over the odds. Snowman led throughout and won with authority at Rosehill beating Riff Rocket who has since won a stakes race by a huge margin at Flemington last week. Pushy is doing good things in his debut race preparation and Ganbare will be hard to beat despite the horror draw.

R5: THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m going with the class of Front Page. He is going for back-to-back in this race, he’s a good fresh performer, his trial was acceptable and he maps nicely. Opal Ridge is getting in short enough but she really came of age last preparation and is the one to beat. Far Too Easy has a sticky draw but he does look to get the speed up front to suit. A good longshot is Bianco Vilano. He’s an underrated horse and I don’t think he should be a $51 chance.

Thomas: Opal Ridge is resuming in The Kosciuszko but it’s a deliberate strategy by trainer Luke Pepper given his stable star is unbeaten in three previous first-up attempts. She’s a brilliant mare and won twice at stakes level during the autumn. She will get a soft run from her inside gate. Derry Grove is in outstanding form and has been absolutely dominant in successive Randwick Highway wins. The unbeaten Mogo Magic and last year’s Kosciuszko winner Front Page also rate highly.

R6: SYDNEY STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I was very confident with King Of Sparta before the barriers came out. This has been the plan for him for months, he has great second-up form and I’m probably tipping him with my heart not my head but he is flying. Bella Nipotina is the big danger. She sets up well here third-up and is a quality mare who will be hard to beat. Vilana has an amazing first-up record and this looks a target race. Best of the rest is I Am Me who looked sharp in a recent trial and just needs to get across from her wide barrier and she will be hard to run down.

Thomas:Airman unleashed an impressive burst of acceleration to win easily over the Randwick 1200m course in fast time last start. He’s won five of his seven starts and although he has to negotiate a sharp rise in grade, he’s a sprinter with untapped potential. Bella Nipotina is a high class mare and would not have been out of place in The Everest. She missed a start there but looks the one to beat here despite her wide draw. Good luck with King Of Sparta, Ronnie. With even luck in running, he will be finishing faster than anything in the race. I Am Me is blessed with abundant speed and will take catching.

Benedetta is Duff’s best bet at Randwick. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

R8: SILVER EAGLE (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on Benedetta. She’s a very good mare who is yet to run a bad race her whole career. She’s had a nice Sydney trial leading into this and I feel this is a lovely race for her. Ruthless Dame is the danger. She is better placed at 1300m off The Shorts run and will be strong late. There’s a big boom on the Queenslander Yellow Brick who went down fighting first-up at a short price. He’s got improvement to come and puts himself in the box seat which is a huge advantage in these races. I want to forgive Kibou for his last start failure.

Thomas:Pericles was one of the favourites for the Epsom but was withdrawn from that race two weeks ago. Godolphin has freshened Pericles since he won the Tramway last month and has drawn wide here but he’s a talented horse who will be very competitive. Strait Acer has won three straight and is coming back from his win over a mile here last start. He has a good turn of foot and although this is a much harder race, he’s a good each way bet. Interstate raiders Yellow Brick and Benedetta both have very good race records and rate among the main chances.

R9: KING CHARLES III STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I was talking about I Wish I Win being the best horse in Australia but it could be Mr Brightside. He is an outstanding horse, two runs at the track and distance for two Doncaster Mile wins and he presents in great form. Zaaki looked all over a winner last start but he might have been half a run short. He’s peaked on the right day. Fangirl has a good draw for her over the mile as she can race a little closer. It was impossible to miss Kovalica’s run in the Epsom and he is a very smart horse.

Thomas: Mr Brightside has reeled off successive wins in the Lawrence Stakes, Memsie Stakes and Makybe Diva Stakes to start his spring campaign. The dual Doncaster winner has become the consummate weight-for-age horse because he can take up a position close to the speed and he is blessed with elite acceleration. Zaaki is another outstanding miler at his peak for this race. Fangirl is a high class mare who has finally drawn a decent barrier and will be hitting the line. Think It Over was typically resolute reeling in Zaaki last start and you just know he will give his all again.

R10: ANGST STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: More Secrets is well placed here. She had strong formlines last preparation and she comes out of that very fast Espiona Golden Pendant win. Renaissance Woman loomed up and knocked up when resuming and will improve. Osmose is one I’ve always had an eye on out of the Queensland carnival and she could do something fresh here at the mile. Likewise Frumos who did win second-up at a mile last campaign.

Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with Renaissance Woman to beat More Secrets. Renaissance Woman ran on strongly to just miss a place at Rosehill when resuming and goes to a more suitable trip here. She is effective second-up and will go close. More Secrets is going to be hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. I’ve also got a watch on Frumos while Amokura won the Queensland Oaks last start and can sprint well fresh.

Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for The Everest day at Randwick