Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race for the Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill on Saturday.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances on a bumper 10-race Golden Rose program at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
R5 No.7: AL AABIR
BEST VALUE
R9 No.1: STEELY
R1: TAB HIGHWAY (1500m)
Ron Dufficy: There’s a long tail to this Highway. Atmospheric Rock is ready now after two runs from a spell and will be hard to hold out. Desert Mist was well fancied last start but had too much to do that day. He’s a big improver. Skyforger has had specking at odds and will appreciate the lightweight. Al Ash Lad is in racing in good form and should get every chance from his inside barrier.
Ray Thomas: With Take The Kitty sold to Hong Kong and Missile Leader also coming out, I’m with Atmospheric Rock. He has produced two solid runs to start his campaign, the Danny Williams stable is firing and he looks very hard to beat. Desert Mist is also working his way back into form. Williams also has Stormy Witness and Montebello’s Charm, with both competitive chances.
R2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300m)
Dufficy: The price is gone with Peace Officer. He looks a strong horse and has returned with a brilliant win admittedly in an easier race at Wyong but his trial since against Think About It was outstanding. He will be hard to hold out. Twice As Special might be a seven-year-old mare but she is going really well and can run a race here at good odds. Victory Lane has trialled up beautifully and did some nice things last preparation. Iron Man was good first-up after only one soft trial and can give some cheek on top of the speed
Thomas: Flying Destiny has won both starts at the provincials in good style since resuming. He’s yet to miss a top-three place in seven starts, drawn the rails barrier, makes his own luck racing on speed and will be hard to beat. Peace Officer was very impressive first-up and he rates as the main danger. Bend The Knee ran on well at Canterbury and will be fitter again. He’s over the odds. Victory Lane is resuming but does sprint well fresh and he is trialling well.
R3: IRRESISTIBLE POOLS AND SPAS HANDICAP (1900m)
Dufficy: I’m with Tazaral. He ran into a good horse in Just Fine last start when he was five weeks between runs. He is racing in good heart and will be hard to hold out again. Unspoken resumed with a great win when he appeared to have plenty of improvement to come. He maps well and has been well backed in early betting which is a good sign. Marquess should have nearly beaten Howgoodareyou last start and the 1900m suits him better. You can’t know Howgoodareyou with four wins from five starts in her first preparation and she will be hard to catch.
Thomas: Howgoodareyou just keeps winning. She is blessed with tactical speed and can accelerate off a good or fast pace. She seems to be getting better with racing and is likely to get complete control up front again. Marquess is also racing in great form, he meets Howgoodareyou better at the weights and the extra distance should suit him. Team Snowden’s imports Tazaral and Unspoken are both racing well and should be hard to beat.
R4: HERITAGE STAKES (1100m)
Dufficy: I’ve ended up going with Royal Tribute. He created a huge impression running very fast time at Hawkesbury first-up. Royal Tribute was only just beaten by Ozzmosis on debut at his only other start during winter and being drawn inside his rival favours Royal Tribute. There’s a huge boom on Ozzmosis and he has a chance to show what he can do here. The forgotten horse is Barber. He’s had two August trials and the class of him will take him a long way at double figure odds. Celestial Legend will be hitting the line well and he’s a really good prospect but might be better suited over a bit further than this trip.
Thomas: Terrific race. I’m with Ozzmosis. He’s unbeaten in two starts including his win over Royal Tribute at Randwick during winter. Ozzmosis resumes off a typically brilliant trial win and he looks a real talent. Royal Tribute was beaten on debut by Ozzmosis then resumed from a spell at Hawkesbury where he ran sensational time winning with ease. Celestial Legend is another very promising three-year-old resuming and although the 1100m might not suit him, he will be charging home. Barber does have plenty of ability and watch for him late.
R5: COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400m)
Dufficy: I’m very confident with Al Aabir. I think this stayer is in really good shape. He comes out of two very fast races won by Just Fine and I keep harping on that formline. With those lead-ups under his belt Al Aabir will be very hard to beat now he gets to 2400m. Athabascan justified the confident support with a soft win last start and seems to have turned the corner. Verona doesn’t help herself with so little gate speed but she’s learning all the time and should run well again. Desert Icon stuck on well in the Newcastle Cup and should be around the mark again.
Thomas: Athabascan comes off a very impressive Randwick win where he seized control of the race well before the turn, made it a staying contest and comfortably held his rivals at bay. He should only be improved by three runs from a spell and I’ve got him on top from Al Aabir who rates highly for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Sir Lucan will be fitter for recent racing, he’s likely to get complete control up front and is the big improver. Verona will be giving away a big start but she will be running on strongly as always.
R6: RACING AND SPORTS GOLDEN PENDANT (1400m)
Dufficy: I want to be with Zougotcha, Ray. I’m happy to give her another chance as I feel 1400m could be her sweet spot and she could take ownership of this race. She’s too good a mare not to give her another chance. Espiona is a frustrating mare who is loaded with talent. She went home with excuses again first-up and just has to executive better although the draw may help her. Atishu was as good as anything in the Sheraco Stakes but it is just a matter of whether she is still sharp enough for 1400m. Banana Queen is the best of the rest off a good win in a Group race at Newcastle.
Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with Espiona to beat Zougotcha. The small field suits Espiona who should be within striking distance of the leaders throughout. She was terrific first-up beating all but Sunshine In Paris in the Sheraco Stakes and she does have a very good second-up record. Zougotcha showed significant improvement second-up to finish a close fourth in the Sheraco and she is likely to be in front of Espiona in the run. Sheeza Belter has had a change of stables and she did impress in a recent trial. Atishu ran well first-up and will be fitter.
R7: SHANNON STAKES (1500m)
Dufficy: Cepheus did beat Waterford the last time they met and I thought he was very good back in distance last start. The extra 100m suits Cepheus, he has the good draw and should be hard to beat. Waterford is the danger. He is short enough now but he was terrific first-up in the Theo Marks Stakes and this is a lovely option for him. Williamsburg gets the gear change with the blinkers going on but I would have preferred the jar out of the track. Flying Crazy only beat a couple home last start but I thought he was excellent charging through the line late and is the dark horse.
Thomas: Waterford is a promising horse and I liked the way he hit the line first-up when third in the Theo Marks Stakes behind Golden Mile. Waterford is lightly raced, has a good winning strike-rate, excels at the Rosehill 1500m course and is effective second-up. He ticks all the boxes. Flying Crazy has ability and is an each way chance. Cepheus is racing in top form and is a winner over this course and distance. Magical Lagoon won the Irish Oaks last year and although she didn’t fire in two autumn starts here, she’s got class and can sprint well fresh.
R8: KIA GOLDEN ROSE (1400m)
Dufficy: Great race with so many questions. It’s almost impossible to win this race first-up but I feel Shinzo is there to make a statement. He is getting out to good odds and everything I’ve seen of him in the trials and track gallops suggest he is the real thing. I’ll gamble on that because I’m getting the price to find out. I’m very interested in the different form Charm Stone brings to this race. She has drawn barrier one and will get the run of the race. At least she is running time and some of our three-year-olds are not running fast time which is why I’m gravitating to her. Cylinder is absolutely primed third-up off two wins, he’s had the perfect preparation. King Colorado is the other one. At least he has run well at weight-for-age in a proven form race and that winning trial since will stand him in good stead.
Thomas: Cylinder has shown determination and a fierce will-to-win to take the Vain Stakes and Run To The Rose in his two starts this spring. The Godolphin colt has had the grounding to run a strong 1400m and he’s drawn to get the right run. I have Cylinder ready to exact revenge for his Golden Slipper second placing behind Shinzo. I agree with your thoughts on Shinzo and it would not be a surprise if he blows them away. He is awkwardly drawn and will need everything to go his way. I just felt the barrier draw gives Cylinder a slight advantage. King Colorado is another very talented colt and he will be hitting the line hard. Encap won the Ming Dynasty Quality with authority and he’s drawn a perfect barrier.
R9: CHANDON HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: I may be way off the mark here but I like a $26 chance in Steely. He’s mad fresh coming into this race, he gets good speed up front and to think he is in a benchmark 88 although he has to carry a big weight. I just feel I want to go with him getting over the top of these at big odds. Chorlton Lane has had a busy schedule but is a nice enough horse learning his craft. Pereille is in great form and was beaten by a really nice type in Garza Blanca last start. Pereille just has to run the 1400m right out. Danish Prince is a good, honest horse who will race on pace from the good draw.
Thomas: Chorlton Lane finished fast to win over the Rosehill 1400m then was unlucky to just miss at Caulfield. He’s a promising type and there is enough speed to ensure this race is run at a genuine tempo to suit. Journalism is tough and underrated, he sprints well fresh and is going to take running down. Pereille is very consistent and rates highly again but will need luck from his wide draw. Loch Eagle invariably improves second-up from a spell and is a knockout chance.
R10: TAB WE’RE ON HANDICAP (1100m)
Dufficy: Impossible race with these Kosciuszko horses resuming in the field. This is the lead-up run they have to have and I would not be surprised if one of them won the race. But I’m going with Portray as her two trials have been great, she won first-up last preparation and she maps so well here. Xtravagant Star is a month between runs and there was a lot to like about her win over this track and distance last start. Ojai never got the chance to fully extend last start but should have been in the finish. Tristate is nice and fresh and back to 1100m suits.
Thomas: Xtravagant Star was dominant winning at Rosehill last start and seems right back to her best. She has to overcome a wide barrier but with even luck in running, she is the one to catch. Cavalier Charles usually races well fresh and has a strong finish. Portray is a handy mare resuming here but she trialled impressively at Hawkesbury. Mars Mission needs a dry track and solid race tempo. He gets both of these here and is way over the odds.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill
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