NewsBite

Ray and Duff’s 2024 Big Dance Day tips, analysis for Royal Randwick

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy debate the key chances in all 10 races, including The Big Dance, at Royal Randwick on Tuesday.

Racenet
8 min read
November 4, 2024 - 5:11PM
Hold All Tickets 2024 Melbourne Cup Runner-by-Runner preview

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the key chances in all 10 races, including The Big Dance, at Royal Randwick on Tuesday.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

DUFF’S BEST BET
Race 7 No.1 WATERFORD

DUFF’S BEST VALUE
Race 8 No.2 DRAGONSTONE

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R1: Midway Hcp (1800m)

Ron Dufficy: FLYING BANDIT (1) is a lightly-raced gelding doing a great job and is yet to run a bad race so in a field like this, he has to be hard to beat again even with a bit of weight. There is a small query SATNESS (2) runs 1800m right out but he is in form now and sure to give a good little sight upfront. MAGICON (4) is fitter for a couple of runs back from a spell and was placed here at Randwick at the end of last preparation; respecting late market moves on him. And the best of the rest is WAVERLEY (6) who was as well tried in the market and just fair last time but the extra distance and light weight are positives.

Ray Thomas: FLYING BANDIT (1) appreciated getting out to 2000m at Hawkesbury, settling on speed then forging clear to win comfortably. Promising four-year-old who can get favourite backers off to a winning on Cup Day. HIGHBORN HARRY (3) is an improver who also comes off a tough 2000m win at the provincials. WAVERLEY (6) is fitter for recent racing and is up to his right trip now. SATNESS (2) is racing in good form.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R2: TAB Highway (1000m)

Dufficy: I like TICKLEBELLY (5). I think she is a nice mare. She has had a trial since a very encouraging first-up run at this track and distance and I feel she has to be right in this. Forgive CARIBBEAN KING (6) with the cardiac arrhythmia last start. He is big odds here and should relish sitting off a hot speed and coming late. DUKE OF BRONTE (1) is a yard and market watch, resuming off a 109-days and without a trial but he has plenty of speed. And TAKE THE RAP (7) is a three-year-old heading in the right direction, winning three from three at the 1000m and could measure up.

Thomas: DUKE OF BRONTE (1) just missed completing a hat-trick of wins before his spell. He’s resuming here but goes well fresh, he’s very fast and is the one to catch. TAKE THE RAP (7) has won three of his four starts, all at 1000m, and he will be finishing strongly. TICKLEBELLY (5) made Perennial work hard to beat him in a Highway back in September and he’s trialled well between runs. SUPER IMPRESSIVE (11) is a good chance at odds.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R3: All Occasion Cruises Hcp (1500m)

Dufficy: I like CHORLTON LANE (1). It is a nice race for him to find his winning form again. He gets a claim and is back to 1500m which is ideal. KING OF THE CASTLE (2) did more than expected first-up. He usually lifts dramatically second-up and is right in this. HOLLYWOOD HERO (6) wasn’t himself at Coonamble last time but was building up to something prior and the blinkers going on will help. Old fella CUBAN ROYAL (3) may not be getting any younger but he wasn’t suited back in distance last start but his two previous runs; the form is good for this race.

Thomas: CHORLTON LANE (1) ran on from back in the field for third to Ducasse in the Big Dance Wild Card. Although he’s had a few chances of late and has to cope with a slightly shorter trip, this does look his race particularly with the claim. KING OF THE CASTLE (2) and HOLLYWOOD HERO (6) will be hard to beat.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R4: The Agency Real Estate Hcp (1300m)

Dufficy: Tough race. There is a bit of rap on this Victorian, BLAZING HARRY (1). He is an interesting horse. He’s had a couple of runs back in Melbourne and he needs luck from a wide draw with the big weight but I’ll cop the tip, the marketplace is warming to him. I thought TITANIUM MISS (13) was very brave, three-wide no cover, in the Reginald Allen last time so if she can reproduce that, she is in the finish. ISLAND DEC (10) was well fancied in that same race and wasn’t bad. Just backfired going 1000m to 1400m that day but more seasoned now. TARTAGLIA (6) is a month and a trial since being not far away there first-up and looks suited straight to 1300m.

Thomas: ISLAND DEC (10) won her first two starts very impressively then got caught in an awkward spot at the top of the straight before running on late for eighth, beaten just over a length. The winner, Aeliana has since won the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington to frank the form. ISLAND DEC (10) is very promising and is set to bounce back. COLOPHON (7) is at value odds, TARTAGLIA (6) is fitter and Blazing Harry looks hard to beat.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R5: The Big Dance (1600m)

Dufficy: I have to be with the form out of the Alan Brown Quality. It has been very strong so far, HERE TO SHOCK (1), barrier one, box-seat, underrated horse and is hard to beat again. I think if there is an upset, it is SKY LAB (5). he’s had his two trials – I don’t mind this horse – he likes a mile fresh and his trials are good. He is the best value. The other one out of the Alan Brown is obviously GRINGOTTS (4). He has been in great form at his past two preps, just the difference in barriers between those two horses out of the same race is the key. And TAVI TIME (12) got his confidence back by winning an easier race last time. He’s always been a horse that looked like he was going to go all the way so this is his target and he gets in light.

Thomas: I’m with TAVI TIME (12). He was very impressive second-up winning over 1600m at Warwick Farm and he’s certainly better suited on a big Randwick track. FLOATING (10) goes very well on this track and is over the odds. GRINGOTTS (4) is bursting to win a race but has to overcome a horror draw. HERE TO SHOCK (1) is in top form but has to shoulder plenty of weight.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R6: Barn Dance (1300m)

Dufficy: I am going with GALLANT STAR (6). Nothing wrong with his Kosciuszko run. He still has more to offer this preparation, just wish he had a better draw, but happy that Jason Collett sticks with him. Dangers? BIANCO VILANO (8) is trialling up well and has talent. THE FACE (2) is going better than it reads on paper and was back to winning form last start. He fits in quite nicely here. And FLORINO (14) will go forward from a wide draw and if he gets across without too much trouble, he is going to give a good sight.

Thomas: GALLANT STAR (6) is a talented sprinter and his run in The Kosciuszko to finish sixth to Far Too Easy is a good pointer for this race. He’s very consistent and is good enough to overcome the wide draw. ELSON BOY (3) is over the odds as he’s genuine and will be in this for a long way. LONHRO’S QUEEN (12) has a powerful finishing surge and FLORINO (14) is hard to beat despite a horror draw.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R7: The Little Dance (1600m)

Dufficy: Very keen on WATERFORD (1). He was more a Big Dance than a Little Dance horse so he gets into this race beautifully, same form-line as we were speaking about earlier in the Big Dance re Here To Shock and Gringotts. So Waterford finds an easier race here and if he runs to form, he wins. It is a perfect set-up for ESTADIO MESTALLA (5) – third-up now, pet distance, and should be right in the finish again. ST LAWRENCE (4) is a month since winning at this track and distance. He’s got his confidence back now and is in the mix. And RAVELLO (11) is lightly-raced and has come back better this prep. The timing is right for him as well to have a nice little lightweight chance.

Thomas: WATERFORD (1) ran brilliant closing sectionals to finish a close third to Here To Shock when resuming in the Alan Brown Stakes. He’s got his share of weight but has a class edge over his rivals. ESTADIO MESTALLA (5) has been working up to a win and gets his chance here. RAVELLO (11) has come up well this campaign and ST LAWRENCE (4) could go right on with it now he’s back in winning form.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R8: Precise Air Choisir Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: I quite like DRAGONSTONE (2). He’s had a little freshen since running in the right lead-ups, the Concorde and The Shorts. Tick-over trial since and I think he has got his eye on the prize here at good value. PEREILLE (5) has had his two trials and is set to sprint well fresh as he usually does. Maybe wish it was 1200m for him. MORAVIA (4); past three runs are great, back to 1100m, mapping well appeals. Jedibeel is flying at the trials and came of age last preparation.

Thomas: CABALLUS (7) has been racing in the top sprints this spring and will find this much easier. He has ability and could be a big improver. JEDIBEEL (8) is a sharp sprinter with a good record and always goes well fresh. MORAVIA (4) is racing well and although he has to drop back in trip, his run in the Silver Eagle was very good. HARD TO SAY (1) is back in his right grade and is drawn to get the right run.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R9: Toyota Forklifts Hcp (1100m)

Dufficy: HEADWALL (2) was good considering he struggles at 1200m last start in Queensland. Much better stats back to 1000m here and he should be thundering home late. BOJANGLES (5) has handed in two nice trials. He has won his past two preps, fresh, and probably the other way with him, I wish it was 1100m rather than a 100m. ANOTHER COGNAC (13) was okay last start and he has the talent; dropping in weight here, to cause a surprise. SOUTH OF INDIA (4) is hard to knock, winning five from six. Stiffest test to date but he looks pretty sharp.

Thomas: BOJANGLES (5) is resuming but he’s a smart sprinter who always goes well fresh. He’s trialled impressively and drawn to get the right run. SOUTH OF INDIA (4) is very speedy and is protecting a near perfect race record. He’s also been trialling well ahead of his return. HEADWALL (2) has drawn wide and is likely to go back early but he will be finishing hard. DEHORNED UNICORN (7) got home well at Warwick Farm first-up and will be improved by the run.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

R10: Alinta Energy Hcp (1200m)

Dufficy: I think it is a nice race for GENTLY ROLLED (8). She just got out the back there at the 1100m first-up, she worked home well, it looks a target race for her and she will be hard to hold out at 1200m now. So if I am tipping her with a bit of confidence, HUON (9) has to go in because he did beat her home last start and he is a much better price. DALAALAAT (3), back to 1200m suits and this is the softest race he has been in for a while so he is likeable at odds. And NEGOTIATIONS (11) hit the line pretty well in his two runs back and is ready to win now if he runs the 1200m.

Thomas: GENTLY ROLLED (8) was in an awkward spot on the rail back in the field on the home turn when resuming at Rosehill and should have finished much closer. She’s a talented mare who can bounce back here. NEGOTIATIONS (11) has been placed in two strong form races since resuming and looks well placed from the favourable draw. NINGALOO STAR (5) is very consistent and will be in the finish. DEPRIVATION (6) is also racing in good form and rates highly.

Originally published as Ray and Duff’s 2024 Big Dance Day tips, analysis for Royal Randwick

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/horse-racing/nsw-racing/ray-and-duffs-2024-big-dance-day-tips-analysis-for-royal-randwick/news-story/44db8587a6cd74873dd37a9b8103dc51