Randwick tips: Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race at Randwick for the final Saturday metro meeting of the season.

Ron Dufficy rates Deepour his best bet at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Trackside Photography

The Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances across the 10 races at Randwick on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 8 No.3: DEEPOUR

Next Best

Race 4 No.2: DECADENT TALE

Race 10 No.3: BANANA QUEEN

RACE 1

Ron Dufficy: This an interesting two-year-old race that is not a winter two-year-old, it might be an early spring race. I am going with the favourite Estriella. I thought she created a big impression at her debut, sprinting quickly, and she appears to be held back for these early spring races and she will be hard to beat. Shaken is beautifully bred and showed great acceleration from the front the other day and has returned in great order. Caballus is back in distance but does have something. He ran into dead-ends galore at his debut and wasn’t extended. Infatuation has the two-year-old form on the board but has paid the price with a big weight and a wide draw.

Shayne O’Cass: With you all the way with Estriella. She won like a good horse at Gosford. I can’t believe she was $1.90 out to $2.60. She was a twos-on pop off her trials. This is harder again of course but barrier four, Dylan Gibbons are two major positives for this filly whose dam is a sister to Pierro by the way. Caballus, the million dollar baby, had a million excuses like you say Duff at Canterbury.

Estriella was impressive in her maiden win at Gosford. Picture: Bradley Photos

RACE 2

Duff: This is impossible. I went against the map and have gone for Invincible Legend. He just seems to be the horse with more upside than most and he’s on a winning streak at the moment and with any luck, he is in the finish. Vain Invader gets the perfect on-pace run and will be brave again. Dr Evil will be a different horse from an inside draw and he is an honest Midway performer. Real Peace is another drawn wide but he did enough second-up to suggest to that he has come back and will be finishing off well here.

Shayno: A good fast pace is a prerequisite for my tip Akihiro. He went up to Brisbane for a mile race last start where they ran the first 1000m in 1min 02sec, home in 34.70sec and from where he was, he did a good job to be beaten a handful of lengths. Dr Evil has really good numbers at Randwick. With you re Real Peace and I’ll throw in Nyika.

RACE 3

Duff: Another one drawn wide and needs luck, but Melody Again should have won last start. She just got held up at a vital stage. She has got a really good turn of speed which can get her out of a bad situation. I think she has got upside. The danger is Wizard of Oz whose two trials for Danny Williams have taken me in and he does find a good position on speed. Tags was first-up in a year last time and he’s had a month since that run and I am expecting improvement from him at odds. Take The Kitty was another one that didn’t have a lot of luck last start and the two wins prior were excellent.

Shayno: Melody Again was the one of the certainty beatens of the winter here two weeks back. I can really see her turning into a good mare next season. She is a very close relation to Shazee Lee, so there’s the precedent. Cameron Crockett’s pair Salire and Pure Fuego (J-Mac!) are going to be strong late whereas Supido Beauty will be strong early and could run them off their feet depending on pressure, etc, ect.

RACE 4

Duff: Pretty keen on Decadent Tale here in a weak race. She had too much to do last start from a wide draw. Usually she can race on speed and she is going to take up a forward position here and prove hard to beat. Ita looks her main danger. She has been up a while but it is a perfect race for her with the three-kilo claim. She just has to finish off at 1800m. Then we go to Endorphins who hasn’t won in a long time but presents well third-up after a decent second-up run. Bootscooter does no work from barrier one and has got a knockout chance.

Shayno: Yep, same horse for me Duff for exactly the same reasons. That’s to say, too far back last start from the dud draw but races super handy this time. I like Ita has a horse. She’s won seven races with 12 placings and upwards of $400,000. She ran a great race in the Little Dance but that’s her, always running on. No real luck for Bacio Del Mist last start on the Kenso. Randwick’s better for him.

RACE 5

Duff: I want to go with Touristic. It is hard to knock his consistency and I think three weeks between runs should suit him. That form has been franked from that last start as well. Wineglass Bay did enough first-up. He just appeared to want further there so 1800m is ideal and he has had a nice trial since that first-up run. There is a bit of a tip floating around for his stablemate Mutamanni. He is a French import who is lightly-raced and open to improvement. Best of the rest I thought was Tip Of The Spear who is a yard and market watch here. He is having his second Aussie prep and they usually improve with that seasoning.

Shayno: My best bet of the day, Duff, is Mahagoni. The David Payne-trained gelding has been working his way up to a win. I would go as far as to say that the 0, the 7, and the 8 next time his name were not only pass marks but they were bordering on good runs. I will always remember his run in the Four Pillars with 64kg on his back. I concur about Wineglass Bay wanting 1800m now. Same for Mutamanni who didn’t quite see out the 2000m last start.

Mahagoni is Shayne O’Cass’ best bet at Randwick. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Duff: Leaning to Strait Acer. He beat last week’s impressive winner Kangaroo Court at Hawkesbury and he could well go on with the job this preparation. Plundering has had a month since putting three good seconds together. He just needs luck getting across from that wide draw. Terrestar captured my attention at the trials being hard held and looks a likely value runner here. I would just like a push for her on track. King Of Naples’s midweek form is very solid and I like the way he hit the line winning last start.

Shayno: I knew you would have spied Terrestar, Duff. I am going all-in on her on Saturday on the suspicion/hope that this will be her campaign when she turns four in a few days time. I should just mention for the breeding buffs, Terrestar cost $550,000 and is more or less a three-quarter sister to Sunlight. I say “yes” unless the market says “no”. I have always admired Strait Acer’s toughness. He has been beautifully managed by Edward Cummings and you are right of course, Duff, Kangaroo Court (Boo’s cartoon tip last week!) has well and truly franked the form.

RACE 7

Duff: I think they might take Mogo Magic on being just out of Highway grade but it’s hard to knock the way he has gone about his work. He shows good courage from the front and he is going to be hard to run down again. Diamond Dealer did more than enough first-up covering ground there and did improve sharply to win second-up last prep. Vindication ran sharp enough time winning first-up and looking a better horse. Smashing Eagle is not hopeless here. He hasn’t been far away in a couple of Benchmark 72s of late.

Shayno: Mogo Magic is $6 to win the Kosciuszko. I would anticipate some movement in or out with the TAB depending on what happens here. His form is there for all to see, four out of four, three of them he won on-speed and pace alone, the fourth was more about courage than speed alone and that makes him a little bit special. Vindication is an underrated and well-performed horse.

Mogo Magic could be special. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8

Duff: Very keen on the Queenslander here, Deepour. I love what he has done at his past two preparations. He is a good style of horse and I think 1100m with speed up front, they’ll know he is there. Rupertaar is a good fresh performer. It was a lovely trial at Kembla and she’s in the mix with no weight on her back here. No knock on the favourite Insurrection who is going well and makes his own luck. Best of the rest, I thought Kir Royale is a big improver from an inside draw doing no work.

Shayno: You mentioned yard and market watch before Duff; is there a bigger one to keep tabs on (no pun intended) than Inver Park? These Australian Bloodstock chaps are the experts at buying overseas horses that make it Downunder and a lot of them have gone to the top level under Kris Lees. I would have thought this horse was $5 with James McDonald on but he’s double that and more. Let’s say what happens five minutes out from a start and act accordingly. Deepour was very good in the Ramornie and gets barrier five and Dylan Gibbons.

RACE 9

Duff: I am with Tazaral here. He is another one of these imports in his second Aussie racing prep. He did the job well winning first-up and I can’t see him going backwards. Happy to be with him. I think Battleton was a total forgive last start, he had no room to move, and his previous win was good and he maps well. Super Pursuit is one of those horses that never has any luck. One day it will turn for him because he is good enough at this level. King Of The Castle is genuine, he never runs bad, and he will give you an honest run.

Shayno: Kicking myself I didn’t have Tazaral on top first-up Duff. I love good triallers and there wasn’t a better trialler racing all day than him. Anyway, good luck to those who did back him. He was very, very impressive too. Silent Agenda drops down from 58.5kg to 53,5kg but I suppose a more pertinent point is that he was very unlucky behind Tazaral here when they met two weeks ago.

RACE 10

Duff: Pretty keen on Banana Queen. She is a good fresh performer off a great trial and the stable usually has them ready first-up so she should run to her pattern and prove hard to beat. Mirra View got bailed up on the inside the other day. Her previous form suggested she was working up to another win. Windshadow is an improver who has been carefully taken through the grades and is certainly in winning form. Regal Pom needs luck from a wide draw but is trialling nicely.

Shayno: Mirra Vision, as you alluded to Duff, had some pretty major excuses last start. That eighth is in no way reflective of how she went and you are quite right, she was on her way to win. Still is I reckon, Banana Queen has great numbers and sent out all the right signs in that trial. Sunborn is the big improver. The best one of her would be on the podium here.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Shayne O’Cass and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis