Randwick tips: Shayne O’Cass and Mitch Cohen’s best bets and analysis

Shayne O’Cass and Mitch Cohen discuss the top chances in every race for the Winter Stakes meeting at Randwick on Saturday.

Lady Of Luxury can win the Winter Stakes on Saturday after an eye-catching run in the Civic Stakes last start. Picture: Bradley Photos

The Daily Telegraph form experts Shayne O’Cass and Mitch Cohen debate the chances on the 10-race Winter Stakes program at Randwick on Saturday.

RACE 1

Shayno: Cigar Flick is a well-bred filly who boasts some real depth in her form via the likes of Learning To Fly, Steel City and Facile. This Ingham/Waller filly has trialled twice in the lead-up to her return to racing and both have been good. Drawn to get the drop of the speed and chime in up the rise. Epic Proportions was dominant beating a subsequent winner (Zouprince) on debut and the horse that ran third (King Of Dubai) ran well himself too. Gets every chance from the draw on Saturday. Misty Legend, a $700,000 yearling, was even more convincing winning last start albeit at Newcastle.

Mitch: Epic Proportions comes in with a run under his belt and you would think he could only improve off his terrific debut success. He comfortably dispatched of Zouprince at Canterbury and looks well placed to repeat the dose here. He should lead and take running down. There was a lot to like about Misty Legend’s win at Newcastle last start. Yes it was only a Newcastle 900m but he had his rivals covered easily. No knock on Cigar Flick. Stakes form is good form for a winter race like this and Chris Waller has had a super year with his two-year-olds.

RACE 2

Shayno: West Of Africa was the proverbial eye-catcher when he closed fast from the back to finish a diminishing two-and-a-half lengths sixth here at HQ two weeks ago. They tried him in some very good races at the Brisbane winter carnival this time last year and while he didn’t measure up, he got better with every start after that. Good draw and nicely weighted on Saturday. The market will tell us where Noble Conqueror is at first-up but there is no doubting his natural talent. Little Beginnings is fit and reliable. Ditto that for Step Aside.

Mitch: The blackbook was opened up the moment West Of Africa hit the line last start. The son of Not A Single Doubt only saw clear air from the furlong pole but hit the line like a horse that had plenty to offer. He’s still a colt and tipping he could be up to stakes quality. Little Beginnings has hardly put a foot wrong this preparation and it took the handy Flashing Steel to beat him last time. The outside draw makes life tricky but he’s deep into his prep and ready to run well. If Bat Out Of Hell can settle closer, he has to be considered.

RACE 3

Shayno: Vilified is the third foal of his dam Sin Sin Sin whose third foal was none other than Yes Yes Yes. Granted, Vilified is never going to be winning an Everest but don’t be fooled by the ‘07’ alongside his name, Mitchy. He was very unlucky first-up here and as for the run after that, it was so hard to make ground at Rosehill in the run after that. He’s not a 50/1 shot – no way. Swift Charm has been either “good” and “unlucky” in previous Highways. Drawn wide but if he can get in he will be strong late. Burranadana had the right man on to suit his barnstorming finish.

Mitch: Miss Thatcher was a well-backed favourite when burning too much fuel early last start in a Highway. She’s worthy of a second chance after dominating from the front at Goulburn first up. Zac Lloyd helps her get in with the featherweight of 53kg and she’s drawn to get an easy lead. Burrandana is often a victim of his racing pattern. He isn’t short of talent but will get back and be one of the strongest late. Swift Charm goes from barrier one last start to gate 18. If he finds some cover, he’s got enough ability to win.

RACE 4

Shayno: Kahawaty is a dual acceptor and my best bet in the Midway or the last depending on where she goes. The Antony Cummings-trained mare has done some good things but I was taken by her last trial. Her biggest danger could be the Edward Cummings-trained Three Wise Men who has a compelling fresh record and has shown noticeable improvement in between hiss two trials. Nosey Parker, the Paul Perry trained son of the Paul Perry trained Choisir had an off-day last start here on June 10 but it happens. Trialled well since and is a marked (sharp) improver.

Mitch: Crosscheck is returning after more than a year on the sidelines. She's a risk for sure but on talent alone she has to be considered. The Sara Ryan-trained galloper won in a similar Midway in her last preparation and has been given two solid hit-outs at the trials to ready her for her return. Diamond Diesel has placed in all five runs this preparation. He puts himself in a prominent position and should be around the mark again. Put a line through Nosey Parker’s last run. It was a disaster but he put three together before that.

Resonator is going for back-to-back wins. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5

Shayno: Wineglass Bay very nearly won at his Australian debut back in January off one trial. I wonder if it is significant that he has trialled twice this time? Not sure, but 1400m, fresh, on the big track at Randwick gives him a real show. Excelladus and Battleton finished second and third respectively behind Stonecoat here two weeks ago. Excelladus drew 11 that day, he gets two this time. Battleton is surely building to a peak.

Mitch: Resonator is on the short back-up after leading all the way to win at Rosehill Gardens last weekend. Barrier three will afford Amy McLucas a similar opportunity here and the talented apprentice‘s 3kg claim gets him in with a manageable 58kg. Exelladus looked the winner last time until Stonecoat fought back of the canvas. This is no harder and he gets a superior draw here in barrier two. Battleton should get back and finish strongly again.

RACE 6

Shayno: Touristic was rewarded for his ongoing consistency with his first Australian win last weekend at Rosehill Gardens. Good job all around really from the trainers horse and jockey. Co-trainer Peter Snowden said in the post-race debrief that 2000m was the next step so here we are. Mutaminni has to take the step up from midweek to Saturday grade but he is untapped and will eat up 2000m. Ditto and more for Intuitu who was the eye-catcher here at his Australian debut.

Mitch: Mutamanni becomes my default top pick following the scratching of Aristonous. That’s not to say the Chris Waller-trained import is a back-up plan, he’s a nice horse himself. He ran through the line when winning last start at Warwick Farm like a horse that’s ready for 2000m. Manbehindthemoney only found one better last time in the form of the classy Grebeni. He chases well this campaign but has the outside draw against him. Touristic rarely runs a bad race.

RACE 7

Shayno: Brudenell has been well-placed by Kris Lees throughout, hence his resume of five wins from eight starts. To add merit to that CV is that the son of Russian Revolution has won at five different tracks including three of Sydney’s metro courses. So reliable and too consistent to tip against. Insurrection is another fast son of Russian Revolution. It may or may not have a bearing on the result but he has drawn two outside Brudenell. So Good So Cool is on a hat-trick; harder this time but he is clearly in great order.

Mitch: Looks a race in two and lean towards Brudenell. The Kris Lees-trained galloper will strip fitter from his all the way win first up from a break. He’s done it second-up before and can do it again. Insurrection certainly had no issues overcoming the wide draw to win last start. Zac Lloyd will need to do the same thing again but his early speed should come in handy. Sara Ryan has her stable flying and So Good So Cool is a prime example of that.

RACE 8

Shayno: I don’t think anyone missed the run of Lady Of Luxury in the Civic Stakes. I know you are keen on her too, Mitchy. For those who didn’t see it, the daughter of Criterion was a mile off them turning for home but ended up being under three lengths from the winner and was getting closer with every stride. I was quite keen on Longvillers in the Civic. He was pretty underwhelming with no real excuses. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. Civic winner Ucalledit and the luckless Tamahere are in the mix.

Mitch: We had to wait to see if Lady Of Luxury would get in the Winter Stakes field but boy I am glad she did. She was electric finishing off in the Civic Stakes after showing off a similar turn of foot when winning the start before. With 53kg on her back, she’s a great chance at odds. Cotehele is set to sidestep the race for the South Grafton Cup so that leaves the ever consistent Cisco Bay. He may be a rising nine-year-old but is racing as well as ever. Big watch on Matthew Flinders.

Iowna Merc missed the start last time out. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9

Shayno: Handle The Truth ran 1.08 and change at this track/trip when he won The Kosciuszko. OK, it was a while ago but this is a horse that has won nine races, placed 12 times, and went pretty close in the Lady of Luxury (deep) race here on June 10. I have great respect fot Iowna Merc given he is the up and comer and all but I just can’t have them at $23 versus $2.15. Even if you don’t agree on that, Handle The Truth is still $5 the place. trial watchers have their horse here; Much Much Better!

Mitch: Iowna Merc left Amy McLucas with a minor concussion last start and punters were feeling a similar headache. The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding played up in the gates and was slowly away before rattling home for fourth. With a clean getaway this time, I can’t see him losing. He’s one of the better bets on the program. Wewillrock has taken a liking to racing in Australia. His June Stakes placing had plenty of merit. Fox Fighter is better than an $18 shot.

RACE 10

Shayno: Kahawaty is an emergency in the Midway so she may have already run and hopefully, won. As previously mentioned, her form is solid for the most part and very good on occasions. I remember her winning at Kembla one day in 1min 09.74sec and breaking 33sec for the last 600m. Sunborn has won twice first-up, she is one for one at the Randwick 1100m and looking at her trials, you would have to say she is going as well as she needs to be to win. Lady Brook is fit and getting close to a seventh career win.

Mitch: Sunborn has trialled like a horse that's ready to win first up. She won her most recent hit out by 6½ lengths and with a couple of fresh victories on her resume, she can run well first up again. Kir Royale usually gets better as her preparation goes on but with a couple of placings fresh, she can run well. Petulant has never lacked ability and showed what she can do at her best at Canterbury last time. She’s drawn to settle in the leading couple and will take catching.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Shayne O’Cass and Mitch Cohen’s best bets and analysis