Randwick: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race, which includes the 7 Stakes and The Shorts, at Randwick on Saturday.

Duff and Ray agree Kimochi can get the better of Tiz Invincible in the Tea Rose Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

R7 No.2: ZAAKI

VALUE BET

R4 No.8: AUSBRED FLIRT

R1: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600m)

Ron Dufficy: I am not really sure about this race. I want to give Backrower another chance. He has just been grinding away in those couple of Midways but I just think with the blinkers back on and up to a mile that he gets another chance in a winnable race. Oakfield Redgum is up in class but simply dominated at home last time from the front and is going to give plenty of cheek. Miss Couver is the one that probably has more upside than most. She just might lack experience but she was beaten by a very nice type with the bias against her last time. Elettrica is a gutsy little mare in good form and back to the mile is no issue from barrier, she just has that extra weight to carry.

Ray Thomas: Backrower is ready to win. He should be peaking after two runs from a spell and the blinkers going on are the key. Elettrica is creeping up in the weights but she’s racing in top form, will get the run of the race from the inside barrier and will go close again. Oakfield Redgum seems to be getting better with racing the deeper he goes into his extended preparation and he rates among the main chances. Socrates is back in winning form and over the odds here.

R2: TAB HIGHWAY (1000m)

Dufficy: There is a huge boom on Once Again My Girl. She did start favourite against Red Card in a stakes race at the end of last preparation and her recent trial was excellent. Even though she hasn’t got Highway form, I want to be with her. Salire has had an easy trial with a little freshen up and nice statistics at this track and distance. Iron Will has good Highway form, a better draw helps him this week and his 1000m form is solid. Derry Grove has had a month freshen and put the writing on the wall with a big win last start. I am not just 100 per cent sure about him back in distance.

Thomas: Once Again My Girl was a brilliant winner of her first two starts then had excuses in the Denise’s Joy Stakes. She’s resuming but has been readied for this race with two barrier trials, the most recent a runaway win in fast time. We have the same top four but slightly different order as I rate Derry Grove the main danger. He scored a stunning Highway win over 1100m here last start and although he has to come back slightly in trip to 1000m, he has had a month between runs and will enjoy coming off the solid upfront tempo. Watch for Salire charging home and Iron Will will be in this race for a long way.

R3: SHOOT OUT MILE (1600m)

Dufficy: I like the Chris Waller pair Logan Street Lion and Gan Teorainn. I am leaning to Logan Street Lion just with his consistency. He is genuine, gets Nash Rawiller and he is adaptable as far as his racing pattern is concerned. Gan Teorainn is an improving imported mare who ran into a few dead ends there last start. Just whether she wants 2000m now is a question. Mission Phoenix was very flat on the back-up last start but he gets another chance with those blinkers back on now from an inside draw. Capres Des Dieux hasn’t done a lot but he just hasn’t put his act together yet and it wouldn’t surprise to see big improvement at this distance.

Thomas: With Glint Of Silver racing at Newcastle on Friday, Strait Acer looms as the one to beat. He is on trial at the distance but he’s in great form and ready for this class test. Gan Teroainn and Logan Street Lion are both working their way into winning form and rate highly. Mahagoni has been disappointing but is down in the weights and does race well over this course and distance.

Ausbred Flirt can run well at big odds at Randwick. Picture: Bradley Photos

R4: NICK MORAITIS TROPHY (1400m)

Dufficy: I am keen on one at big odds here – Ausbred Flirt. She had really nice form last preparation and her trial recently was excellent, running right through the line. I think she is very well placed to run well at big odds here at $21. Altivo is a progressive horse, He has been nurtured through his classes with plenty of form around him and he should be right in the finish. Holymanz is the other one at odds here. He ran in some really nice races last preparation including the Australian Guineas and the CS Hayes Stakes. He had a winning trial leading into this and must be respected. And his stablemate Gringotts looks progressive as well. He has got a good strike-rate winning three straight last preparation.

Thomas: Altivo is a very promising Team Hawkes-trained galloper with one narrow loss in five starts. He’s resuming off a close third to brilliant sprinters Buenos Noches and Zapateo in Rosehill trial and has the talent to make a winning return to racing. Gringotts is also lightly raced but has plenty of potential and just found 1200m too short at Moonee Valley when resuming. Strombus is racing well and up to this grade, while Green Shadows is the value runner.

R5: KINGSTON TOWN STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: I want to give Monteflilia another chance. She is a class mare who lost her spot at the start last time when slowly away. I think up to 2000m is much more to her liking and she definitely gets another chance. I could not have been more impressed with Just Fine winning at his Australian debut creating a huge impression. It is a tougher race here and just the price factor swung me the other way. He has become very short off a Benchmark win. Major Beel was a much better run second-up and should improve again at 2000m. Protagonist was heavily backed first-up for the new stable and just missed with a big weight. He has nice claims with a trial since.

Thomas: Montefilia is an outstanding mare and she’s ready after two runs from a spell. She had excuses in the Chelmsford Stakes, as you pointed out Ron, but now she gets to her right distance range. She’s ready to win. Navajo Peak scored a tough win in the Chelmsford but he’s drawn off the track here and will need luck getting across before the first turn. Major Beel caught the eye with his fast-finishing second in the Chelmsford and is better suited at this trip. Protagonist ran a blinder when resuming at Hawkesbury and is good each-way value.

R6: TEA ROSE STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: I am leaning to Kimochi. She’s had the flashing light on in defeat at her past two runs. This is her chance now at 1400m which looks ideal. Tiz Invincible is hard to knock with two wins leading in. I like the way she lengthened late at the 1200m. The X-factor horse is definitely Tropical Squall who has different form and a big boom on her. The stable is in great form and she makes her own luck. The other one I want to include, maybe more looking for a mile, but Tutti La Vita with blinkers on is a real little knockout chance here.

Thomas: Kimochi or Tiz Invincible? It’s hard to split these very good fillies but I’ve also landed on Kimochi. She was doing her best work on the line when close late on Tiz Invincible in the Furious Stakes and is looking for 1400m now. Similarly, Tiz Invincible was also strong late winning last start and there is no reason she won’t run a strong 1400m either. Great clash but it is not a race in two with Zardozi a big improver and the underrated Mumbai Muse both worthy of consideration.

Zaaki is Duff’s best bet at Randwick. Picture: Trackside Photography.

R7: 7 STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I am pretty keen on Zaaki, Ray. A month since his good first-up run in the Winx Stakes and that form has already been franked by a couple of horses. I think he might get control up front and prove very hard to run down on a dry track which he likes. Fangirl is his danger. She is a quality mare who was great winning the Winx first-up and will be hard to hold out again. Hoo Ya Mal – I like this horse. I think he did enough first-up and he should lift again here, although he might want 2000m. Think It Over is a very popular horse and understandably so and he is ready for a peak performance.

Thomas: Fangirl showed her class to surge late to edge out stablemate Princess Grace in the Winx Stakes. Fangirl is an outstanding mare, she excels over this track and distance, and is the one to beat. Zaaki was tremendous first-up in the Winx, he will be improved by the run and, as you said Ronnie, if he gets control up front then he will be very hard to beat. Think It Over will be stalking Zaaki and will be in the finish. Pericles goes to weight-for-age but is in career-best form.

R8: THE SHORTS (1100m)

Dufficy: What a race. I have to go for In Secret. I think she over-achieved in a race that was just a start-off for her last time. The 1100m is obviously the key to her improving and she’ll be hard enough to hold out. There’s plenty of competition there. I love the way Lost And Running has come back. His two trials have been airborne so I am expecting him to make a statement along with Overpass who has an Everest spot on the line here and he’ll be trained up by Bjorn Baker. Best of the rest is Remarque who was terrific beating In Secret after doing it tough. He gets his chance to put his hand also.

Thomas: In Secret ran a close second to Remarque in the Concorde Stakes and I think the pair will fight out the finish again. Godolphin mare In Secret will be fitter for that excellent comeback run and better suited at 1100m. Remarque had a tough run first-up and still won, He’s underrated. Overpass is flying at the trials, he races well fresh, should lead from his inside barrier and will give them something to chase. Buenos Noches was dynamic winning the Show County and he will be finishing fast.

R9: BILL RITCHIE HANDICAP (1400m)

Dufficy: I am with Converge. I know he hasn’t won in two preparations now but all five runs last prep were at Group 1 level. I think this is a lovely race for him to get his confidence back. Tammerlane gets some on-pace favours here and I love the way he is trialling. He will give a great sight for his supporters. I am just worried with Olentia that, like last time, there is not enough pressure for her but she did have excuses that day. She is a good mare who could easily bounce back here. And best of the rest at 50-1 here is My Whisper. She didn’t come up in two runs on soft tracks last prep but she is a dual Group 3 winner at her previous preparation.

Thomas: I’m hoping the big field generates enough pressure to give Olentia the opportunity to show what she can do. Olentia was disadvantaged by the moderate tempo last start but first-up she showed brilliant acceleration to score a very impressive win. Talented mare and the one to beat. Converge is a class act and will be hard to beat for all the reasons you mentioned. Skyman ran very well first-up and although he might be looking for further now, he will be running on strongly. Times Square has been trialling well and is one to watch at odds.

Garza Blanca can win the last race if he can sneak into the field. Picture: Getty Images

R10: AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1200m)

Dufficy: I am hoping that Garza Blanca gets a run here. He is down in the emergencies but I am hoping for enough scratchings. If he does get a run, I think he will be very hard to beat. I loved the way he went to the line last start. Kote is still a bit of a work in progress horse but very talented and has a lovely draw for him. He has had four trials to prepare for this. Kibou is very promising and was not fully extended in his trial and is right in the mix along with Kayobi. There are some very nice horses here.

Thomas: Kibou is a talented young sprinter who defeated Golden Mile in the Up And Coming Stakes last season. He’s only had one run in over 12 months when a very good second to Iowna Merc at Randwick back in June. Kibou’s had two recent trials, he’s drawn the right barrier and is the one to beat. Garza Blanca is another promising, emerging sprinter who has the fitness edge over Kibou. Kayobi has ability and always sprints well fresh. Dalchini is a classy mare albeit underrated and could surprise with a bold first-up showing.

Originally published as Randwick: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis