Randwick: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race for the Winx Stakes meeting at Randwick on Saturday.
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The Saturday Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the big-race chances across a bumper 10-race program featuring the Group 1 Winx Stakes at Royal Randwick.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
R1 No.2: BACKROWER
BEST VALUE
R4 No.15: FOR VICTORY
R1: MIDWAY HCP (1200m)
Ron Dufficy: I know he has a wide draw but I’m keen on Backrower here. He has been gelded before this preparation, his two trials have been fantastic and he has some strong three-year-old form from last season. I think he can swoop over the top of these. The stablemates are the dangers, The Seven Seas and Ningaloo Star. I liked The Seven Seas’ first-up run over an unsuitable distance so she will like getting to this trip. Ningaloo Star beat home her stablemate last start and has improvement to come. Vindication ticks most boxes, is third-up, should get the run of the race and will give a big sight again.
Ray Thomas: Ningaloo Star worked to the line nicely first-up to finish third in a Rosehill Highway over 1100m and will appreciate getting out to 1200m here. She won second-up last campaign and is effective on soft tracks. I agree Backrower has looked impressive in his trials and he looks set to sprint well fresh but his wide draw is a leveller. Field Wiri and Boss are consistent and won’t be far away again.
R2: TAB HIGHWAY (1100m)
Dufficy: This is a softer Highway but Miss Kirribilli should go close. She’s had two trials after a decent break, she’s a nice mare who has had the grounding to go first-up. The danger could be Sungblue. He’s had 70 days off, no trial and way back in distance but the jar out of the track will suit him. He should be competitive. You have to respect anything Matthew Dunn brings down for these Highways and Derry Grove is a last start winner. His stablemate Centre Bounce has had excuses both starts this campaign.
Thomas: Manzoni has found form and continues to improve since joining the Natalie Jarvis stables. He scored fast finishing wins in successive starts then resumed from a spell with another eye-catching effort when closing late for second at Dubbo. This is stronger but he’s going to enjoy the big Randwick track and is value at $17. Sungblue was placed in successive Randwick Highways before a spell. He’s better suited over a little further but he does enjoy rain-affected tracks. Derry Grove and Rumours Abound come off good first-up wins and are definite chances.
R3: GOLD COAST TURF CLUB TROPHY (2400m)
Dufficy: An impossible race. I ended up settling on Awesome Wonder with her light weight. She had to make a long sustained run at Warwick Farm last start. I don’t know if that is the right form but she is one I want to take out of that race. Kirkeby has been racing well with big weights and he’s well graded in a winnable race. Martial Eagle is an import who has got better with every run in Victoria. He can stay. Intuitu found his confidence winning at Eagle Farm last start and should run well again.
Thomas: Kirkeby was outsprinted by Verona at Rosehill but he kept grinding away to claim second. He’s racing well and although he has his share of weight, he will go close again. Pachino comes to Sydney after successive wins over 2400m at Sandown and is a tough stayer although he might prefer a firmer track. Awesome Wonder is weighted to win here and Martial Eagle is improving with racing.
R4: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HCP (1600m)
Dufficy: I was taken by the improvement from For Victory last start. He had excuses with a poor recovery with his first Australian run at Sandown but then he hit the line nicely coming back in trip last start which indicated he is ready to peak at the mile. I’m happy to take the odds on him. His danger is Amor Victorious. He has more to do this week from the wide draw and a bit more weight but I still feel there is upside with him. Foujita San needed the run first-up, he goes straight to the mile and I can’t get out of my mind his terrific trial before that. Venelope is a lightly raced Maher-Eustace galloper who gives the indication she is crying out for this distance.
Thomas: Foujita San was Group 2 placed over 1600m last season and will be improved by his first-up run at Rosehill. I’d prefer a firmer track but this underrated galloper from the Team Hawkes stable should be right in the mix. Kingsheir is over the odds. He’s fitter for two runs from a spell, drawn to get the run of the race and Nash Rawiller is a key booking. Queenmaker has been freshened after a consistent late autumn-winter campaign and she should run well again. Ivan’s Hero scored a tough last start win at Rosehill and is getting better with racing.
R5: SHOW COUNTY QUALITY (1200m)
Dufficy: There is no early speed here and it is a bit of a messy race. But I will go with the boom horse Extremely Lucky. He is trialling the house down, scratched last week for this race, he is the name on everyone’s lips, and a slowly run race won’t worry him. Buenos Noches has plenty of weight but his three-year-old from last season is outstanding. Argentia is another who might be impacted by the speed but I loved her first-up run with obvious improvement to come. Dragonstone is fit and gets a few ticks with barrier one where he could possibly race closer and has a lightweight.
Thomas: This looks an intriguing clash between Buenos Noches and Extremely Lucky. I am leaning to Buenos Noches as I feel he is a sprinter with untapped potential set for a big spring. However, Buenos Noches is likely to get back in the field so if there is no early speed as you anticipate, Ronnie, then it is advantage to the lightweight Extremely Lucky. Argentia and Dragonstone both ran well in the Missile Stakes and have race fitness on their side.
R6: PREMIER’S CUP (2000m)
Dufficy: There are a lot of first-up queries in this race but I’m going with the favourite Fawkner Park. I think he is short enough and he was beaten when short in betting last start but he’s up and running and will be hard to beat with his light weight. The big query is Cleveland. He’s a quality stayer first-up for trainer Kris Lees but he was terrific when fifth in the Tancred Stakes last preparation which says it all for this race. Hosier presents well and has a fitness edge. He’s ready for 2000m on a soft track. Bois D’Argent is off a smallish break off the Queensland carnival and those horses usually race well when freshened for this time of year.
Thomas: Fawkner Park was chasing his sixth successive win and just failed to run down the in-form Bold Mac over 1800m last start. Bold Mac has subsequently won the Listed Rowley Mile to frank the form. Fawkner Park gets out to 2000m which is more his distance range but is a query on a soft-heavy track. Cleveland is a classy stayer resuming and although this is probably short of his best, he might just be too good. King Frankel won first-up at 1900m in the Parramatta Cup earlier this year and it would be no surprise to see him in the finish. Bonny Ezra wasn’t beaten far behind Bold Mac last start, he is peaking now, gets a soft track to suit and is a good each way chance.
R7: TOY SHOW QUALITY (1100m)
Dufficy: There are so many options here but I’m going with the quality of Zougotcha even though 1100m is not ideal but she has been kept nice and fresh with one soft trial. There is enough speed upfront for her to blend into this race late and we know she has such a tremendous will to win. Parisal hardly put a foot wrong last preparation, her trials have been great and she is another one who will be swooping over the top of them. Queen Of The Ball is trialling beautifully, gets in light and will run boldly. Cinderella Days will like the jar out of the track and although this is a big test her trainer Joe Pride has always spoken highly of her.
Thomas: I’m going for value here with the promising Cinderella Days. She has shaped promisingly in two recent barrier trials and is primed for her return. The soft track is in her favour and she will be in this for a long way. Plenty of dangers including Zougotcha who the Waller stable is testing as a possible The Everest candidate. Parisal and Queen Of The Ball are both trialling brilliantly and will be hard to beat.
R8: WINX STAKES (1400m)
Dufficy: This will be hard to bet into this race confidently but it’s an exciting race with so many options. Even the longshots are rough hopes. I can’t believe Lindermann has gotten so far out in the market because of his wide draw. But he has gate speed and it’s not a terrible start from the 1400m at Randwick so I can see him gliding across here and running a good race at big odds. I’m a fan of Princess Grace. She only had a real soft hitout at her second trial but from the draw she will get into a controlling position. I also like Chris Waller’s imports when they are having their second preparations here and this mare showed enough in her debut Australian preparation. It is a case of we will never know with Golden Mile after what happened in the Missile Stakes but apparently he has pulled up well and all the speed maps are in his favour. I would have liked a firmer track for Fangirl but she’s been given a good grounding like her stablemate Lindermann with two barrier trials and an exhibition gallop.
Thomas: I’m going with Golden Mile. He’s the only starter in the field to have had a run back, albeit when he went to the line untested after almost falling in the straight in the Missile Stakes. He looked to be bolting before the incident and he’s drawn to get the right run here. However, there are so many chances including the veteran Zaaki who beat all but the freakish Giga Kick when resuming in the All Aged Stakes over this course and distance in April. He trialled well last week. Fangirl is trained up for her return but she does prefer firmer tracks. Mo’unga is also trialling really well but has to overcome a wide draw.
R9: SILVER SHADOW STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: We are going to learn a lot about these three-year-old fillies. I’m going with Estriella, she was far from disappointing when edged out by Caballus last start and I think 1200m suits her better. She is up and running, drawn well and her race fitness edge is a big advantage. Platinum Jubilee had the right from leading into the Golden Slipper when she had had enough, but her two trials have been impressive, she is an adaptable type who maps well. Kimochi has trialled very, very well and appears to have returned in great order. She will be strong late. Likewise with Kristilli who did an amazing job to win the Percy Sykes Stakes at just her second start in autumn. It’s a good lead that James McDonald is happy to jump on her.
Thomas: Another deep race. I’ve landed on Platinum Jubilee. She handles wet tracks, goes well fresh, her trials have been good, and she has the tactical speed to take full advantage of her good draw. In a race loaded with winning chances, Kristilli is lightly raced but promising, the same goes for Estriella, and the unbeaten Zardozi will be charging home.
R10: ACY SECURITIES HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I want to be with Pacific Ruby. She has had a little break since being a touch disappointing last start but prior to that she beat a subsequent stakes winner in Barbie’s Fox quite easily so this race is a nice set-up for the Maher-Eustace stable with McDonald to ride. Time To Boogie is going through his grades nicely this preparation and has the speed to get across from his wide draw. I like two longshots here with Munitions and Byron Belle. Munitions comes out of a good race last start and had a ripping trial since and is well placed in this race. Byron Belle mixed her distances last preparation but she is trialling well and is over the odds
Thomas: Time To Boogie was chasing a hat-trick when narrowly beaten by Brudenell at Rosehill. He is fit, makes his own luck racing on speed and will be tough to run down. Pacific Ruby is a handy mare who is at her best on rain-affected tracks. King Of Naples is another sprinter racing in career-best form and stays under notice even though he has to come back in trip. Shines is genuine and will be thereabouts despite taking on stronger opposition.
Originally published as Randwick: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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