Randwick: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances in every race for the Concorde Stakes meeting at Randwick on Saturday.

Montefilia can strike second-up in the Chelmsford Stakes at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances for the Concorde Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

R4 No.4: MISSION PHOENIX

R1: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: I’m happy to give Backrower another chance. He just got caught wide last start but stuck on nicely. He will improve with the run, he’s got James McDonald and a better barrier so I’m happy to go his way. Strait Acer is at his peak and although he’s up a couple of kilos the good draw helps again. Different Strokes has had a few runs back after a long spell and he is ready to do something now. Stars and Bars had no luck at the midweeks last start and seems to be going well enough.

Ray Thomas: Different Strokes is a good each-way chance. He has been improved by recent racing and was working to the line nicely in a Benchmark 72 race at the midweeks last start. Different Strokes is back in Midway grade, his three career wins have been at this distance range, he’s a winner over this course and distance, drawn to get the gun run and he has Nash Rawiller. Backrower is the danger for all the reasons you mentioned. Strait Acer is in top form and can win again. Sebrenco is suited this grade and is ready to run well.

R2: TAB HIGHWAY (1200m)

Dufficy: Wizard Of Oz sets up well third-up from a spell. He maps to get a good run and this looks a perfect race for him. Centre Bounce, from the all-conquering Matthew Dunn stable, is the danger. This horse ran very well last start. Sungblue ran into dead ends galore last start but he is suited from barrier one, the jar out of the track and Nash Rawiller to ride. Iron Will has had three weeks between runs, he’s going to need luck getting across from his wide draw but he has the talent to be in the finish.

Thomas: Centre Bounce came from last on the turn and ran on very well to claim second behind her stablemate, the dominant Derry Grove in a Randwick 1100m Highway last start. Although Centre Bounce was no match for the winner, her effort was very good and getting out to 1200m here is ideal. I’ve got her on top from Sungblue who ran unplaced in the Derry Grove race but was held up for most of the straight. Atmospheric Rock is lightly raced but promising and Wizard Of Oz will be hard to beat.

R3: LOCKTON HANDICAP (1100m)

Dufficy: I want to have something on Ojai. I know she hasn’t won a race in a very long time but her two trials have been very good and this is the first time she has been in this grade for a long while. Dancing Alone is an interesting mare who has been well looked after. She’s an exciting type and is ready for this class. Waverider Buoy is racing so consistently and is yet to run a bad race. Avebury is trialling up quite nicely and although this might be short of her best distance, I’m expecting her to be working home late.

Thomas: Dancing Alone is unbeaten in four starts in country and provincial grade but is ready for the step up to Sydney Saturday class. She shouldered 60.5kg and mowed down Jedibeel to win over 1000m at Kembla Grange last start, breaking 33sec for her closing 600m sectional. Promising mare and well placed again. Ojai was stakes placed in the Denise’s Joy Stakes at Scone before she was spelled and that form reads well for this grade of race. Waverider Buoy tries hard in her races and Miss Ostend is a knockout chance at big odds.

R4: IKON SERVICES HANDICAP (1600m)

Dufficy: This is a good set-up for Mission Phoenix. He’s on the back-up, goes to a mile, will ride the speed and will tough this out well. It seems a target race by the Pride stable. Perfect Thought seemed to have his chance first-up but he might have been ring rusty. He always lifts second-up so that is the case for him. Tazaral has been freshened up, has trialled nicely between runs and is racing with confidence now. Logan Street Lion is ready to do something after a solid last-start effort at Hawkesbury.

Thomas: Tazaral started his campaign with successive wins over the Randwick mile during July, coming from back in the field with fast-finishing runs to score well. He’s had a trial between runs and returns to the course and distance where he is very effective. Tazaral is up in grade but can win again. Mach Schnell was in good form prior to his last start effort in the Premier’s Cup but back in grade and distance here and will be competitive. Logan Street Lion is working his way back into form and English import Just Fine is trialling well ahead of his Australian debut.

Mission Phoenix is Duff’s best bet at Randwick. Picture: Getty Images

R5: SYDNEY CITY LEXUS CUP (2400m)

Dufficy: I want to give Bonny Ezra another chance at 2400m. He gives the impression he is looking for the trip and I want to forgive him for his last-start effort when he was on the worst part of the track. He’s ready to run well. Verona scored an amazing win last start but the facts are she was about $21 that day and is pretty short here. I just want to see her do it again but if she does then she will go close to winning. Serpentine has been freshened since his Queensland preparation, he’s an on-pace staying type with nice credentials. Military Mission was outstanding second-up when he chased a solid speed and stuck on well.

Thomas: Verona got to 2400m quickly but was absolutely dominant at Rosehill, putting four lengths on her chasing rivals. Lightly raced mare, she drops 5kg and can go right on with it here. The consistent Kirkeby chased home Verona last start and is also right down in the weights. Military Mission is fitter for two runs from a spell and Bonny Ezra also rates highly in an open race.

R6: FURIOUS STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m going with the Silver Shadow form and Kimochi here. I wish it was 1400m but I loved her return with improvement to come and she will be strong late. Mumbai Muse ran a really good race on the wrong part of the track and there was no fluke in that effort. She will position up nicely from barrier one at good odds. There was nothing wrong with the win of Autumn Ballet first-up but I’m just a little concerned if she is still sharp enough for 1200m. Everyone doesn’t like The Rosebud form but Tiz Invincible stepping up in distance is suited here.

Thomas: Good race with many chances. Tiz Invincible only had one trial going into The Rosebud but gave weight to most of her rivals and showed her class to score a tough win. She will be fitter and is suited at level weights against her own sex. Kimochi was charging home in the Silver Shadow to just miss when an eye-catching first-up third. She might be looking for further but still rates highly. Autumn Ballet responded gamely under pressure to win the Silver Shadow and there is no reason why she can’t again. Zardozi had no luck first-up and could be the big improver.

Ray is going with The Rosebud form and Tiz Invincible in the Furious Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

R7: CONCORDE STAKES (1000m)

Dufficy: I’m really keen on Nature Strip. He’s had two trials, he’s ready, I don’t mind him drawn wide and jar out of the track suits him. He will be hard to beat. Eduardo is the forgotten horse. He always runs well this track and distance and I suspect he is trained up to make a statement here. In Secret could well finish over the top of them but just looking at her she is not crunched down yet. Bella Nipotina has had a couple of jumpouts in Melbourne and she’s a proven big-time performer.

Thomas: This will be a great spectacle. I’m also with the champ, Nature Strip. He’s looked very sharp in his recent barrier trials and all the reports are he is going as well as ever. Nature Strip goes well fresh, loves Randwick and is very effective on soft tracks. In Secret is a very talented mare with a proven first-up record and although the 1000m might be short of her best, she will be closing fast. Eduardo has been flying in his trials and he has beaten Nature Strip in both their Randwick 1000m clashes. Bella Nipotina is a top-class mare and could cause the upset.

R8: CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I like Montefilia. She did more than enough first-up and has improvement to come. I feel getting to a mile at her second run back and with the jar out of the track is absolutely perfect for her. Think It Over is a popular horse which makes him very short in the market. You know he is going to give his all. Duais was similar to Montefilia and was very strong late in the Winx Stakes. Hinged just needs a touch more luck from a tricky draw but she still fits in nicely here.

Thomas: Think It Over was terrific first-up off a very long break when a close sixth in Fangirl’s Winx Stakes. He was baulked for a run at a vital stage in the straight, adding further merit to his comeback run. He won this race two years ago and is the one to beat although he is well found in the market. Hinged is a very genuine mare who ran first-up for fourth in the Winx Stakes. She has to rate among the main chances. Montefilia was doing her best work late when resuming and she has an outstanding second-up record. Lindermann drew off the track in the Winx Stakes and had to work hard early before fading in the run home. He’s drawn a better barrier here and could be the big improver.

R9: TRAMWAY STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: I have to go with Olentia. She is an up-and-coming mare with a fantastic record. This is her stiffest test to date but I have to be with her. Communist is the big improver. Nothing went right for him first-up and he is the forgotten horse in the market. Pericles was good winning first-up and I can’t see him going backwards but staying at 1400m is a query. Hope In Your Heart never runs a bad race, she is well-named. Palmetto is one to keep an eye on, too.

Thomas: Olentia made it five wins from six starts with an impressive return at Rosehill three weeks ago. She has to step up sharply in grade but she looks a real talent and is blessed with brilliant acceleration. Pericles showed his class to win narrowly first-up and has been kept fresh since as part of his Epsom preparation. He will be hard to beat again. Hope In Your Heart is a top class mare and always competitive. Democracy Manifest will be charging home.

R10: WORLD GYM CASTLEREAGH HANDICAP (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m having a throw at the stumps with the former Kiwi Saltcoats. He has been purchased after a slashing last start win and his two trials here in hot heats have been outstanding. If there is any confidence about him in the market I want to be with him. Garza Blanca would have been the bet of the day on a dry track. Pereille is going really well and deserves respect after a dominant win at Moonee Valley last start. Tristate has his hoof on the till and is back in grade here.

Thomas: Pereille is very fit and in career-best form after romping home last start. He will enjoy the sting out of the track and can win again. Time To Boogie is deep into his campaign but he is holding his form and will be in the finish again. Garza Blanca was luckless first-up but has loads of ability, James McDonald stays on the sprinter and he looks very hard to beat. Stromboli was impressive first-up, drawn perfectly and is over the odds.

Originally published as Randwick: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis