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Pedigree picks: Which horse is bred to win the 2024 Melbourne Cup?

Racenet’s pedigree experts Shayne O’Cass and Adam Sherry analyse all 24 runners in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, delving into their breeding to determine which horse is best suited to the taxing 3200m trip.

Racenet
9 min read
November 4, 2024 - 6:07PM
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Racenet’s pedigree experts Shayne O’Cass and Adam Sherry analyse all 24 runners in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup, delving into their breeding to determine which horse is best suited to the taxing 3200m trip.

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1. VAUBAN

Breeding: Galiway x Walkfest

Starts: 20: 8-5-2

Best win: Group 2 Lonsdale Cup

Pedigree analysis: His staying/stamina credentials could all stem from one rather encouraging aspect and that is, he is line-bred, on a 3 X 4 cross of Saddler’s Wells. Vauban’s sire Galiway was bred on the same Galileo/Danehill mare cross as the one and only Frankel. His dam and grand-dam are both daughters of Arc winners.

Verdict: His best win was in the Lonsdale over 3319m.

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2. BUCKAROO

Breeding: Fastnet Rock x Roheryn

Starts: 22: 5-4-3

Best win: Group 1 MRC Underwood Stakes

Pedigree analysis: If you were ranking the best nicks in world breeding in our time anyway, you’d have to find a spot for the Fastnet Rock/Galileo cross of which Buckaroo is a prominent exponent of. That cross by the way is more or less the Danehill/Galileo cross whose most famous example is none other than the aforementioned Frankel.

Verdict: He is more brilliant than dour but slow horses don’t win Melbourne Cups.

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3. CIRCLE OF FIRE

Breeding: Almanzor x Fiery Sunset

Starts: 13: 3-1-3

Best win: Group 1 ATC Sydney Cup

Pedigree analysis: Galileo has his fingerprints all over this Melbourne Cup, so what’s new. The great racehorse and stallion is the sire of Circle of Fire’s dam Fiery Sunset. Let’s not give all the credit to Galileo for this horse’s Sydney Cup win, his father Almanzor imparts a huge amount of endurance into his stock; think Athabascan, Manzoice.

Verdict: He is a two-miler.

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4. WARP SPEED

Breeding: Drefong x Deep Love

Starts: 23: 4-3-4

Best win: Kyoto Handicap

Pedigree analysis: He’s a grandson of Gio Pionti who was a five times Grade 1 winner in the USA. If his name rings a bell, it is probably because he stood for a very short time at Arrowfield. His best horse down here was Cordero who won an Australia Day Cup. Drefong, well, he won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. So how does Warp Speed stay? His dam is by Deep Impact and they can do anything.

Verdict: He’s Japanese and won over 3000m.

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5. KOVALICA

Breeding: Ocean Park x Vitesse

Starts: 24: 6-2-4

Best win: Group 1 BRC Queensland Derby

Pedigree analysis: He was Lot 205 at the NZB Yearling sales in 2021. Guy Mulcaster bought him for $110,000 off Nearco Stud who bred Beauty Generation among others. Kovalica is bred to be a very good ten furling horse like his sire Ocean Park but he seems to get that extra dose of stamina from his dam-sire Makfi.

Verdict: Profiles like a horse who will stay the trip.

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6. SHARP ‘N’ SMART

Breeding: Redwood x Queen Margaret

Starts: 22: 6-5-2

Best win: Group 1 New Zealand Derby

Pedigree analysis: If it was Gerry Harvey’s to design the perfect miler by mixing stamina and speed, he has over-achieved when it comes to Sharp ‘N’ Speed. His father Redwood is a son of High Chaparral (by Sadler’s Wells) and therein is the stamina. The dam is by Swiss Ace who possessed Oakleigh Plate speed.

Verdict: New Zealand Derby winner from the Sadler’s Wells-line. What’s not to like?

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7. JUST FINE

Breeding: Sea The Stars x Bint Almatar

Starts: 25: 7-1-2

Best win: Group 1 ATC Metropolitan Handicap

Pedigree analysis: Bred by Godolphin, Just Fine’s sire Sea The Stars is a half-brother to Galileo. Like him, Sea The Stars has sired his fair share of classic winners but will always be remembered and honoured as the father of the four times Goodwood Cup and three times Ascot Gold Cup winner, Stradivarius. Dam-sire Kingmambo has thrown a huge number of ‘stayers’ by any measure but for a Mr Prospector son? Wow.

Verdict: Has won a Metrop and has the Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle.

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8. LAND LEGEND

Breeding: Galileo x Landikusic

Starts: 13: 3-2-1

Best win: Group 1 ATC Metropolitan Handicap

Pedigree analysis: Cut and past time; Galileo, Galileo, Galileo. And the cross too. His dam is by Dansili, a son of Danehill. Dansili is the sire of Dandino among others and a stallion with whom Land Legend’s legendary trainer Chris Waller has had enormous success per capita; thinking Permit, Foreteller, Index Linked. Le Juge and the Sydney Cup winner, Grand Marshal.

Verdict: We know it stays.

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9. ABSURDE

Breeding: Fastnet Rock x Incroyable

Starts: 21: 6-6-2

Best win: Listed Chester Stakes

Pedigree analysis: Fastnet Rock was foaled in 2001 and here we are 23 years on and his impact is not only not waning, it is actually soaring and not in the sprints but in the classics and the Cup and the Cox Plate (thank you Via Sistina). As one famous scientist once said, why is it so? Simple, just send him something, anything with Sadler’s Wells on the dam-side (like this horse).

Verdict: Can he stay? Only 4023 metres.

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10. ATHABASCAN

(SCRATCHED)

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11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE

Breeding: Extreme Choice x Midnight Pearl

Starts: 22: 5-3-2

Best win: Group 3 Winx Guineas

Pedigree analysis: You would have given yourself a half a chance of winning a Blue Diamond or Golden Slipper when you bred this horse. His father won a Blue Diamond of course. His dam-sire is More Than Ready who sired Sebring and Phelan Ready. But speaking of Slippers, lest we forget the great Luskin Star sired a horse called Flying Luskin who won the 1990 Wellington Cup over 3200m.

Verdict: Will both confound and inspire pedigree buffs if it wins.

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12. OKITA SOUSHI

Breeding: Galileo x Amicus

Starts: 18: 5-3-3

Best win: Group 2 MVRC Moonee Valley Cup

Pedigree analysis: By Galileo out of a Fastnet Rock mare who won our One Thousand Guineas. Not going to bang on about it again, promise. This is the family of Starspangledbanner, or should be the Elvstroem, Haradasun, Highland Reel family. Whatever the case, it is one of the best in the Australian Stud Book. If this horse wins on Tuesday, chalk up another one for Zamazaan (the sire of his fifth dam).

Verdict: Sure will.

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13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA)

Breeding: Dialed In x Sueno D’Oro

Starts: 37: 5-11-5

Best win: Group 3 Geelong Cup 2400m

Pedigree analysis: Dialed In is a son of A.P. Indy who won the Belmont Stakes (a2400m) and is himself a grandson of the immortal Secretariat, sire of 1990 Melbourne Cup winner, Kingston Rule. Sueno D’Doro is a daughter of Medaglia D’Oro, best known as the sire of Hong Kong champion, Golden Sixty and champion filly Rachel Alexandra who beat the boys in the Preakness Stakes. Her grandsire, Kingmambo is dam-sire of 2018 Cup winner, Cross Counter

Verdict: His pedigree has a good mix of stoutness and speed which is needed to win a Melbourne Cup.

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14. ZARDOZI

Breeding: Kingman x Chanderi

Starts: 19: 6-3-1

Best win: Group 1 VRC Oaks

Pedigree analysis: Kingman was a Group 1 winning miler but has left a couple of nice stayers. Aside from Zardozi, he produced Feed The Flame (G1 Grand Prix de Paris, 2400m) and Emissary (Geelong Cup, 2nd Melbourne Cup). Also carries a line of Secretariat. Chanderi is a daughter of Dubawi who has left quality stayers Ghaiyyath and Coronet and is also the dam-sire of last’s Cup winner, With A Fight. Her grandam is by Arc winner and noted sire of stayers, Rainbow Quest.

Verdict: A Group 1 winner at 2400m like her pedigree suggests and could stretch it to two miles.

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15. SEA KING

Breeding: Sea The Stars x Pamona

Starts: 19: 6-1-2

Best win: Group 3 Bendigo Cup

Pedigree analysis: Sea The Stars was an Arc de Triomphe and Epsom Derby winner and a half-brother to Epsom and Irish Derbies winner Galileo. He’s the sire of that champion stayer Stradivarius, winner of four Goodwood Cups (a3200m) and three Ascot Goold Cups (a4000m). Pamona is a daughter King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (a2400m) winner Duke Of Marmalade (by Danehill), sire of 2018 Cup runner-up Marmelo and two-time runner, Big Orange.

Verdict: Has the staying pedigree with a touch of speed to be a chance.

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16. VALIANT KING

Breeding: Roaring Lion x Assembly

Starts: 11: 1-3-1

Best win: 3YO Maiden, 2nd Group 3 Ballyroan

Pedigree analysis: A three-time Group 1 winner over a2000m, Roaring Lion is from the El Prado line of Sadler’s Wells through Kitten’s Joy, a Grade 1 winner over a2400m. His dam is a granddaughter of Street Cry, sire of legendary mares Winx and Zenyatta as well as 2009 Melbourne Cup winner, Shocking. Assembly is by the Argentinian-bred Candy Ride, sire of Pegasus World Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, Gun Runner. Her grandam is by Gone West, who is out of a daughter of Secretariat, and from the female family of Danehill.

Verdict: Has a pedigree that’s strong around the 2400m.

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17. FANCY MAN

Breeding: Pride Of Dubai x Fancy

Starts: 27: 5-4-5

Best win: Listed Queensland Cup

Pedigree analysis: Irish-bred son of Australia’s Pride Of Dubai, sire of Pride Of Jenni, Deny Knowledge and Dubai Honour, who is in turn a son of Street Cry and has Hyperion and Round Table (by Princequillo) on his dam side. Fancy is by the great Galileo from a Sadler’s Wells line mare

Verdict: Another whose pedigree looks good around 2400m.

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18. INTERPRETATION

Breeding: Galileo x Daldiyna

Starts: 23: 4-2-2

Best win: Group 3 Bendigo Cup

Pedigree analysis: Galileo hasn’t produced a Melbourne Cup winner yet but his sons Johannes Vermeer and Mahler both placed in the race. He is the grandsire of three Cup winners through is son Teofilo. Daldiyna is a daughter of Danehill’s son Dansili from an Indian Ridge (Kings Stand Stakes) half-sister to the champion racehorses Daylami and Dalakhani who won 11 Group 1s between them.

Verdict: A strong staying pedigree with a touch of speed in there and was sixth in the Cup last year.

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19. MANZOICE

Breeding: Almanzor x Choice

Starts: 21: 2-4-1

Best win: Group 1 Victoria Derby

Pedigree analysis: Almanzour was a three-time Group 1 winner at 2000m and 2100m but has left Sydney Cup winner Circle Of Fire and ATC St Leger winner Athabascan who also run in the Cup. Choice is by Mastercraftsman who was the sire of one-time 2023 Cup favourite White Marlin. She is from a daughter of Encosta De Lago who is a descendant of Star Way, just like Saintly.

Verdict: Most Melbourne Cup winners have a blend of speed and stamina as does Manzoice.

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20. MOSTLY CLOUDY

Breeding: Harzand x Clarinda

Starts: 28: 6-4-4

Best win: Quality Handicap, 2nd Brisbane Cup

Pedigree analysis: Harzand is an English and Irish Derby winning son of Sea The Stars like his sire’s half-brother, Galileo. He is from a mare by Xaar, a sprinter/miler who has Secretariat, The Minstrel and War Admiral in his pedigree. Clarinda is a daughter of Montjeu, sire of 2012 Cup winner, Green Moon from a Group 2-winning daughter of Linamix, sire of two-time Melbourne Cup runner Manighar.

Verdict: Has the pedigree to be effective over the two miles.

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21. POSITIVITY

Breeding: Almanzour x Pussy O’Reilly

Starts: 12: 4-2-0

Best win: Group 3 SA Classic, Group 3 Naturalism Stakes

Pedigree analysis: Almanzour is a grandson of Iffraaj, sire of Derby winners Gingertnuts, Jon Snow and Western Empire, and carries a strain of Secretariat through Gone West. Pussy O’Reilly is by O’Reilly, a son of Golden Slipper winner Courtza. However, she is one of three stakes winners from the Octagonal mare Octapussy and thus is a granddaughter of Zabeel and great-granddaughter of Sir Tristram.

Verdict: On pedigree, it wouldn’t surprise to see her run well.

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22. SAINT GEORGE

Breeding: Roaring Lion x Lady Dragon

Starts: 10: 2-1-2

Best win: 3YO Handicap, 2nd Group 2 Queen’s Vase

Pedigree analysis: Roaring Lion’s grandam is by a son of USA triple crown winner, Seattle Slew. Lady Dragon is by the champion racehorse and sire Galileo from a daughter of Spinning World who sired Oaks winners Special Harmony, Heavenly Glow and Miss Tipsy Topsy as well as Auckland Cup winner, Spin Around. Spinning World is from a daughter of Riverman, as is the great Makybe Diva.

Verdict: Has the right mix in his pedigree to be effective over 3200m.

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23. THE MAP

Breeding: Alpine Eagle x This Moment

Starts: 32: 9-3-3

Best win: Listed Andrew Ramsden

Pedigree analysis: Alpine Eagle is a son of High Chaparral who sired 2017 Cup winner Rekindling as well as third placegetter, and 10-time Group 1 champion, So You Think. His grandsire Zabeel and great-grandsire Sir Tristram who have six Melbourne Cup winners between them while Zabeel’s son, Zed, left 2021 winner Verry Elleegant. This Moment is a daughter of Sadler’s Wells son, Savoire Vivre, sire of The Cleaner.

Verdict: Has some blood in her pedigree to give her the energy to stay.

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24. TRUST IN YOU

Breeding: Sweynesse x Shinko Bay

Starts: 30: 4-5-1

Best win: Group 3 Queen Elizabeth II Cup

Pedigree analysis: Sweynesse is a Group 3 winning son of Lonhro so gets the Zabeel and Sir Tristram blood. He is out of a mare by Japan Cup winner, Singspiel, himself a son of top stayer In The Wings who is a son of Sadler’s Wells from a Shirley Heights mare. Shinko Bay is from a mare by Cocky Golfer who is a son of Sir Ivor like Sir Tristram.

Verdict: Has some handy staying blood a couple of generation back.

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MELBOURNE CUP TIPS ON BREEDING
1 – VAUBAN (No.1)
2 – Buckaroo (No.2)
3 – Zardozi (No.14)
4 – Land Legend (No.8)

Originally published as Pedigree picks: Which horse is bred to win the 2024 Melbourne Cup?

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