Melbourne Cup form guide 2024: Every horse rated by racing expert Mitch Lewis
The race that stops the nation is upon us. Here’s everything you need to know about the Melbourne Cup and how to pick the winner.
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The full field for the 2024 Melbourne Cup has been set with 24 horses competing for the greatest prize in Australian horse racing.
I am really quite keen on the chances of UK runner VAUBAN as my on top pick for this year’s Cup.
It just feels as if everything since his run here 12 months ago has been around getting him back here in good order and having another crack at the race after a disappointing run as the race favourite last year.
He comes here fitter this time and with form racing in some of the UK’s strongest staying Group 1 races.
VAUBAN should have no real excuses this year as the set up for this year’s race looks as if it has gone perfectly.
Tuesday’s Weather Forecast – 25 degrees and clear conditions forecast.
Expected Track Conditions – Track will be a GOOD4 at the start of the day, conditions are clear and the sun will be out so expecting the track will be upgrades to a GOOD3 at some stage during the meeting.
Rail Position – The rail will be in the +2m position for the entire track.
Mitch Lewis’ Race Selections
1- VAUBAN
13- ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
14- ZARDOZI
2- BUCKAROO
BOXED TRIFECTA / FIRST 4 – 1,2,3,5,8,9,13,14
While ONESMOOTHOPERATOR may not have as strong form lines from his UK races as VAUBAN, he did run a very impressive Geelong Cup which can prove to be a good form race for previous Melbourne Cup winners and that extra fitness he gets from that run could be to his advantage.
Fascinated by ZARDOZI on the quick back up from a good run Saturday and the quick back-up has proven to be a successful tactic from the Cummings stable historically with Bart Cummings using Saturday runs and a quick back up into the Tuesday to great success, so it comes as no surprise to see his grandson James take a similar path.
Closing out the picks we will include BUCKAROO.
He has come back a different horse since his Gelding operation and while he hasn’t won a race longer than 1800m, his fast finish in The Caulfield Cup suggests that he should be able to be strong enough in a 3200m race to be finishing up in the top end.
(1) VAUBAN (FR) (Trainer: Willie Mullins / Jockey: William Buick)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding
Barrier: 11
Weight: 55.5kg
Career Record: 20:8-5-2
Career Prize Money: $1,425,993
Winning Distance Range: 2200m-3382m
TAB Fixed Odds: $7W / $2.80PL
VAUBAN jumped as favourite in last year’s Melbourne Cup. But he never really seemed to get into the race and managed to run only 14th.
It looks a big positive for his return this year though and the stable have come with a different approach which should see him come into the race potentially fitter than what he did in last year’s race.
Since returning to the UK after last year’s Melbourne Cup, he has been highly competitive in UK Group 1 and Group 2 staying races against some of the world’s best stayers.
He brings in the strongest European form lines here which we are expecting to hold up.
He gets a good barrier and while carrying the top weight, it is a drop in weight from what he has been carrying in over in the UK. Looks much better suited this year.
(2) BUCKAROO (GB) (Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Joao Moreira)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding
Barrier: 21
Weight: 54.5kg
Career Record: 22:5-4-3
Career Prize Money: $2,074,648
Winning Distance Range: 1600m-1800m
TAB Fixed Odds: $6W / $2.50PL
As it stands at time of writing the race favourite will be BUCKAROO. He has really returned a good horse this prep since a Gelding operation.
He has had 5 runs this prep, winning 2 of those (1x Group 1 & 1x Group 2) and has also run 2x 2nd places in Group 1s including a fast finishing run in The Caulfield Cup.
He was finishing off best in The Caulfield Cup and a run like that suggests he will now be capable of seeing out this 3200m race, but the risk is he has never won over a 2000m trip.
The small knock is the fact we haven’t seen him over 2 miles before and will he see out that trip? And how strong will this Caulfield Cup form prove to be?
If he can see out a strong 3200m, you would expect that should be fighting this race out late.
(3) CIRCLE OF FIRE (GB) (Trainer: Ciaron Maher / Jockey: Mark Zahra)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Horse
Barrier: 24
Weight: 54.5kg
Career Record: 13:3-1-3
Career Prize Money: $1,713,187
Winning Distance Range: 1609m-3200m
TAB Fixed Odds: $34W / $10PL
The winner of the 2024 Sydney Cup over the 3200m trip. CIRCLE OF FIRE jumped into favouritism for this 2024 Melbourne Cup after that run and remained as the futures market favourite for some time.
But since he has resumed for this prep, he hasn’t quite looked like the same horse and has struggled to find some form.
He looks the right type capable of winning this race and in particularly, is proven over the 3200m trip, but given his form I feel you need to take him on trust and take that small risk that he may not be the same horse than won The Sydney Cup.
One positive is Mark Zahra takes the ride and he does know how to ride a winning Melbourne Cup having won the last 2 years.
Every chance if he can find the form, but at the least feel he is a top 10 chance.
(4) WARP SPEED (JPN) (Trainer: Noboru Takagi / Jockey: Akira Sugawara)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Horse
Barrier: 3
Weight: 54.5kg
Career Record: 23:4-3-4
Career Prize Money: $1,515,917
Winning Distance Range: 2400m-3000m
TAB Fixed Odds: $26W / $8PL
A Japanese raider who comes to town and Japan do boast some of the best racing horses throughout the world, so his international form does appear quite strong.
WARP SPEED did disappoint slightly in The Caulfield Cup finishing towards the back of the field but may have had some genuine excuses that day so may be forgiven.
Faced with a wet track that day and he doesn’t have any decent form on wet tracks so will be much better suited on a much dryer track come Tuesday.
Fitter for that run as well now as he has proven in the past capable of improving 2nd up and is also tested over the 3200m trip.
So he does need to improve on his last start effort, but gets much better conditions here today for him and should be included in multiple best.
Slim placing chance but may be right there in the top 10.
(5) KOVALICA (NZ) (Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Damien Lane)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding
Barrier: 17
Weight: 53.5kg
Career Record: 24:6-2-4
Career Prize Money: $3,115,000
Winning Distance Range: 1600m-2400m
TAB Fixed Odds: $21W / $6PL
It has been some time since we saw KOVALICA produce a win when he managed to win the 2023 Group 1 Queensland Derby over the 2400m.
In saying that, he is a runner who has generally run into some back luck in runs and generally is hitting the line quite strongly, including a strong finishing Cox Plate in his last start.
We have never seen him go out any further than that 2400m trip before so this could be the key for him?
Chris Waller is a master trainer and looks to have confidence KOVALICA will see out this trip now as a 5YO. That looks the key to his race, how will he be late in the run over this 3200m trip.
(6) SHARP N SMART (NZ) (Trainer: Graeme & Deborah Rogerson / Jockey: Michael Dee)
Age/Sex: 5YO Gelding
Barrier: 15
Weight: 53.5kg
Career Record: 26:6-5-2
Career Prize Money: $2,968,806
Winning Distance Range: 1400m-2400m
TAB Fixed Odds: $71W / $18PL
Similar to KOVALICA, SHARP ‘N’ SMART hasn’t won a race since he won The 2023 New Zealand Derby over the 2400m.
Since that race he has spent majority of his time back in NZ and now will have to probably find a career peak performance to be fighting this out.
The way he was finishing off in the 2500m Moonee Valley Cup suggests he may be capable of seeing out the longer trip, but he may not quite have the staying class of some of the others just yet into his career.
(7) JUST FINE (IRE) (Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Jockey: Jye McNeil)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding
Barrier: 13
Weight: 53kg
Career Record: 25:7-1-2
Career Prize Money: $1,057,055
Winning Distance Range: 1600m-2520m
TAB Fixed Odds: $34W / $10PL
JUST FINE won his way into this Cup by winning The Group 3 Bart Cummings over the 2520m here at Flemington 2 starts ago.
He has since come out and did put in a bad on for The Moonee Valley Cup but suggestion is he may have had some excuses in the run.
The key to victory for JUST FINE is how quick they run this race.
He likes to be out in front and leading the pack, so if he can slow the tempo of the race like he did in The Bart Cummings, that will give him his best chance for a win.
It looks a tough ask for a runner to lead all of the way in this race as we rarely do see them pull it off. The 3200m trip is his big query.
(8) LAND LEGEND (FR) (Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Zac Purton)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding
Barrier: 18
Weight: 53kg
Career Record: 13:3-2-1
Career Prize Money: $1,116,807
Winning Distance Range: 2050m-2600m
TAB Fixed Odds: $10W / $5PL
LAND LEGEND was the winner of The Group 1 Metrop over the 2400m 2 starts back and defeated some of the runners he faces again in this race.
Next start he came to Melbourne as a fancied chance in The Caulfield Cup. But he was slightly disappointing in that race with his pre race manners being off and he did over race through the middle stages causing him do some extra work through the run.
The big positive there was the fact he still managed to fight on and run 3rd in the race.
So if he can be more settled and relaxed through this race, he has the potential to be fighting it out at the business end and wouldn’t look out of place running into the placings, but if he does seem agitated again, it will be a tough ask.
(9) ABSURDE (FR) (Trainer: Willie Mullins / Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding
Barrier: 7
Weight: 52.5kg
Career Record: 21:6-6-2
Career Prize Money: $1,052,151
Winning Distance Range: 2000m-4023m
TAB Fixed Odds: $10W / $3.60PL
The stablemate of the top weight VAUBAN and similar to his mate, he is returning to this race having contested it in 2023 where he did run 7th and at one stage in the straight, did loom up as a winning chance.
He was a fascinating watch in the lead up to last year’s race where he was very well fancied by betting markets and did jump up a close price to the favourites.
Overall his form doesn’t appear to be as strong as his stablemates, but he still does have that strong UK staying pedigree and is certainly capable of running the 3200m trip.
He looks a pick for value hunters as it stands, but again if he is met with market support come race day, that may indicate he is ready to go.
(10) ATHABASCAN (FR) (Trainer: John O’Shea & Tom Charlton / Jockey: Zac Lloyd)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding
Barrier: 2
Weight: 52kg
Career Record: 29:4-4-4
Career Prize Money: $1,264,252
Winning Distance Range: 2000m-2600m
TAB Fixed Odds: $41W / $11PL
ATHABASCAN brings winning form into this race having won The Group 3 St Leger Stakes over the 2600m in his last start.
But his big stand out run of late was when he ran 2nd in The Sydney Cup behind CIRCLE OF FIRE.
He was well fancied in that Sydney Cup so certainly could be a capable type and he may be at the right point of this prep from a fitness perspective now to be a contender here.
What may hold him back is he potentially lacks some class vs others in the field which his the query, but certainly a play for those roughie hunters and those betting into top 10 markets.
(11) KNIGHT’S CHOICE (Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon / Jockey: Robbie Dolan)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding
Barrier: 6
Weight: 51.5kg
Career Record: 22:5-3-2
Career Prize Money: $632,400
Winning Distance Range: 1600m-2000m
TAB Fixed Odds: $101W / $24PL
KNIGHTS CHOICE has disappointed in recent Group 1 runs at Flemington and Caulfield when finishing out the back some distance off the winners.
He did seem to show a little bit of better form in The Bendigo Cup when running 5th, but there was an argument he could have finished closer with a little more luck.
Outside of that run he just seems slightly out of form and would be a surprise to see him win this.
(12) OKITA SOUSHI (IRE) (Trainer: Ciaron Maher / Jockey: Jamie Kah)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Horse
Barrier: 10
Weight: 51kg
Career Record: 18:5-3-3
Career Prize Money: $699,538
Winning Distance Range: 2149m-3219m
TAB Fixed Odds: $21W / $6PL
OKITA SOUSHI confirmed his place in this year’s Cup when he won The Moonee Valley Cup over the 2500m in his last start.
He did contest last year’s Melbourne Cup and ran a reasonable race to finish 11th that day. He does also boast a win over a 3219m trip, so the positive for him is he is expected to be capable of running the race out strongly.
Jaime Kah is booked to take the ride after winning Saturday’s Derby, so with an in-form jockey and the fact he should be capable of seeing out the trip, OKITA SOUSHI wouldn’t surprise to finish close to the top end of the race and looks a value EW (each way) hope but certainly a strong top 10 chance.
(13) ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA) (Trainer: Brian Ellison / Jockey: Craig Williams)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding
Barrier: 12
Weight: 51kg
Career Record: 37-5-11-5
Career Prize Money: $741,666
Winning Distance Range: 2050m-3319m
TAB Fixed Odds: $8W / $3PL
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR comes into this race as one of your market favourites and really burst onto the scene for this race when he won The Geelong Cup in impressive fashion recently.
He is a UK staying type, who does boast a win over a 3319m race which serves as good form for a Melbourne Cup.
You would expect to see him come into this race with some extra fitness now after the big Geelong run, so he should be expected to be right around the mark in this race with his pedigree and ability to stay over the longer trips.
(14) ZARDOZI (Trainer: James Cummings / Jockey: Andrea Atzeni)
Age/Sex: 4YO / Mare
Barrier: 4
Weight: 51kg
Career Record: 19:6-3-1
Career Prize Money: $1,768,300
Winning Distance Range: 1200m-2500m
TAB Fixed Odds: $15W / $4.80PL
ZARDOZI’s best career win came through this carnival last year when she was the winner of The Group 1 Oaks over the 2500m for the fillies.
She is a young 4-year-old mare but has already showed good ability over staying trips.
Trainer James Cummings has taken an approach to this race from his famous grandfather Bart Cummings and gave the mare a run in Saturday’s Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes where she did look very strong late hitting the line well.
So the stable are having her come into this race off the quick back up and that did work wonders for her when she won The Oaks last year when she backed up Thursday after a run on the Saturday.
She looks ready for this trip now so can make a good case for her to be an EW play.
(15) SEA KING (GB) (Trainer: Harry Eustace / Jockey: Hollie Doyle)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Horse
Barrier: 1
Weight: 50.5kg
Career Record: 19:6-1-2
Career Prize Money: $450,266
Winning Distance Range: 2050m-2615m
TAB Fixed Odds: $9.50W / $3.40PL
SEA KING cemented his place in the race when he won last weeks Bendigo Cup in nice fashion after enduring a long run into the race.
He has a crossing form line with fellow UK runner ONESMOOTHOPERATOR as those two horses hit the line together in a race at York through August.
Even with that though, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR may have the slight advantage given his stronger form lines prior to that run.
This is a step up for SEA KING now after the Bendigo run so he probably needs to produce a career peak effort here to be winning and realistically, looks a stronger top 10 chance.
(16) VALIANT KING (GB) (Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Craig Newitt)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding
Barrier: 22
Weight: 50.5kg
Career Record: 11:1-3-1
Career Prize Money: $322,472
Winning Distance Range: 2012m
TAB Fixed Odds: $61W / $16PL
VALIANT KING was imported from the UK last season and looked a reasonable chance going in to the 2023 Caulfield Cup, but only ended up managing to finish 6th.
He was instantly spelled after that race and returned to racing recently, but his current form hasn’t been lighting the world on fire by any means.
Given his recent poor form you would feel he is tested in the race unless he can find a big turn around.
(17) FANCY MAN (IRE) (Trainer: Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald/ Jockey: Rob Stewart)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding
Barrier: 19
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 27:5-4-5
Career Prize Money: $526,574
Winning Distance Range: 1442m-2414m
TAB Fixed Odds: $81W / $20PL
FANCY MAN finished off solid enough in the recent Caulfield Cup but it will take a big jump up in class for him based off that run to be a competitive winning chance in a race of this level now.
His best recent win came in the 2023 Listed Queensland Cup on a firm track so he will probably need to be the one that handles the expected firm track best to be any chance.
(18) INTERPRETATION (IRE) (Trainer: Ciaron Maher / Jockey: Teo Nugent)
Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding
Barrier: 14
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 23:4-2-2
Career Prize Money: $856,850
Winning Distance Range: 2012m-2816m
TAB Fixed Odds: $17W / $5PL
INTERPRETATION ran 2nd behind the fancied ONESMOOTHOPERATOR in the recent Geelong Cup which is the form line that places him here in this race.
It was encouraging to see him hit the line strongly in that race from a long way back so he does look ready for the 3200m run now.
He managed to run 6th in this race last year and that was arguably against stronger opposition so he should be a competitive runner in this year’s race as well and expect to see him running on strongly in the later stages of the race.
(19) MANZOICE (NZ) (Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Declan Bates)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding
Barrier: 8
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 21:2-4-1
Career Prize Money: $1,632,050
Winning Distance Range: 1300m – 2500m
TAB Fixed Odds: $51W / $14PL
MANZOICE is a long time between wins now having not won for two years having won here at Flemington in the 2022 Victorian Derby.
His recent form lines don’t really jump off the page to suggest him as a winning chance with him recently running 7th in The Moonee Valley Cup and 10th in The Bart Cummings, both races filled with rivals for today that have beaten him well enough recently.
Expecting that he will likely be tested against today’s opposition.
(20) MOSTLY CLOUDY (IRE) (Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young/ Jockey: Karis Teetan)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding
Barrier: 16
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 28:6-4-4
Career Prize Money: $516,922
Winning Distance Range: 2500m-3318m
TAB Fixed Odds: $101W / $24PL
MOSTLY CLOUDY put in a forgivable run last time when running 12th in The Bart Cummings but the suggestion being he didn’t appreciate the wet track on that day.
So potentially much better suited on a dry track for this race. While his recent form isn’t outstanding, he boasts a handy record when racing over the 3200m trips.
The fact that he can run strongly over the 3200m should be a consideration for him.
While he may not have the class of the winner, given his big odds he may be a value play for the top 10 finish.
(21) POSITIVITY (NZ) (Trainer: Andrew Forsman/ Jockey: Winona Costin)
Age/Sex: 4YO / Mare
Barrier: 20
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 12:4-2-0
Career Prize Money: $477,095
Winning Distance Range: 1600m-2500m
TAB Fixed Odds: $101W / $24PL
POSITIVITY has had a reasonable prep this time in work when running 2nd 1st up before winning a 2000m Group 3 at Caulfield in her next start.
Finished midfield in The Caulfield Cup before a disappointing run in The Moonee Valley Cup.
She needs to take a decent step up in grade here to be able to be a place chance let alone a winning chance.
(22) SAINT GEORGE (GB) (Trainer: Ciaron Maher / Jockey: Tyler Schiller)
Age/Sex: 5YO / Horse
Barrier: 9
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 10:2-1-2
Career Prize Money: $225,972
Winning Distance Range: 2234m-2916m
TAB Fixed Odds: $31W / $9PL
A lightly raced UK import who we are probably yet to see the best of in his four Australian runs.
He has though, been hitting the line strongly and finishing off races in good fashion.
You would expect that given his good European staying pedigree so he may appreciate this 3200m run.
I am not quite sure he is ready for the class of competition he is meeting today.
But he wouldn’t surprise to be finishing in the front half of the field and with this run under his belt, he is certainly worth keeping an eye on what he does in the future and perhaps keeping him in mind as a possible for the 2025 Melbourne Cup.
(23) THE MAP (Trainer: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray / Jockey: Rachel King)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Mare
Barrier: 23
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 32:9-3-3
Career Prize Money: $865,175
Winning Distance Range: 1400m-2800m
TAB Fixed Odds: $41W / $11PL
THE MAP is certainly one of the stories of The Melbourne Cup and is the runner for those who want to cheer on the locals.
She is a Murray Bridge trained runner with a portion of the ownership group coming from the small South Australian country town of Keith.
She won her spot in the race having won The Andrew Ramsden back in May and gaining automatic entry there.
It would be one of the all time stories of the Cup if the Aussie local can manage to win against the big stables and imported horses.
But it does look to be a tough ask for her as she probably does need to take a decent jump up in level to match those runners at the top of the market.
But, she does have a very good record here at Flemington having won 2 of her 3 runs here previously and the 3200m trip shouldn’t be an issue for her.
She can run a nice race here and you may get some good value for her to be running into the top 10.
(24) TRUST IN YOU (NZ) (Trainer: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley / Jockey: Mark Du Plessis)
Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding
Barrier: 5
Weight: 50kg
Career Record: 30:4-5-1
Career Prize Money: $340,729
Winning Distance Range: 1600m-2400m
TAB Fixed Odds: $101W / $24PL
TRUST IN YOU has recent form around runners coming out of the Group 1 Metrop and Group 2 St Ledger back up in NSW, but has found runners up at that level perhaps a little sharp.
What will also be against him here today is going to be the dry and good rated track as he looks to be a runner who would appreciate some rain and a wet track. He appears tested here in this race.
— Mitch Lewis is a form guide expert and racing commentator for SEN radio. You can get his latest updates on Twitter, @mitchlewis101
Originally published as Melbourne Cup form guide 2024: Every horse rated by racing expert Mitch Lewis
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