Glen Boss: Aeliana a false favourite for Thousand Guineas because of James McDonald factor
Glen Boss is tipping against the favourite in the Thousand Guineas and makes a strong case for an outsider in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.
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Beware the “J-Mac tax”.
Given the extraordinary success of James McDonald, there is a growing saying in racing that punters have to be willing to pay a “J-Mac tax” and take shorter odds than they should on his mounts, especially in major races.
Saturday’s Thousand Guineas favourite Aeliana is a perfect example.
Yes, she’s a nice filly, but I’m surprised she is favourite, especially as short as $3.30 or so.
Aeliana can win, but she’s not in my top few chances.
The one I’d love to be riding is James Cummings’ Zeitung.
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It hasn’t been the spring carnival that James and the Godolphin team would’ve hoped for, but they can salvage something with Zeitung.
I love that formline through the Vanity at Flemington on Derby Day.
And two starts back, Zeitung ran a terrific second at this track (Caulfield) over 1400m.
Jamie Kah takes the ride and Zeitung looks every bit like a filly now ready to step up to 1600m.
Given the strength I put in that Vanity form, Matisse is the value runner in this Guineas.
She’s building beautifully and is another who should relish getting to 1600m for the first time.
I’m also going for value in the other feature, the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, which looks a bit of a race where the old are taking on the new.
The new, or the emerging talent, are Another Wil and Jimmystar at the top of the betting.
Sure, they’ve both got terrific chances, but I think they are too short.
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Of them, Jimmystar is the one I fancy the most.
Damian Lane should give him a great run from barrier one and he’s got that wicked finishing burst if the gaps come at the right time.
But the forgotten horse of the race is the old boy, the rising eight-year-old, Tuvalu.
If he brings his best form, he’s better than this field.
Tuvalu flies fresh. He’s won four of his eight first-up runs and been placed twice, too.
Back in May he carried the grandstand and led throughout to win the Wangoom at Warrnambool first-up.
He went straight out for a break and his very astute trainer Lindsay Smith has clearly targeted this as a suitable race.
Tuvalu’s been to Caulfield four times for a win and two placings and three of his nine career wins have been at the 1400m of this race.
He’s been to Camperdown for a sharpen up at the trials and this has a Lindsey Smith masterclass written all over it.
Southport Tycoon is another one right in the betting.
He got all the luck to win at The Valley three starts back and his two runs since have been just OK.
I’m not keen on him.
BOSSY’S PICKS
THOUSAND GUINEAS
Top pick: Zeitung
Value: Matisse
SIR RUPERT CLARKE
Top pick: Tuvalu
Danger: Jimmystar
• Glen Boss writes for News Corp courtesy of Ladbrokes
Originally published as Glen Boss: Aeliana a false favourite for Thousand Guineas because of James McDonald factor
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