Four-Play, Quadzilla: Gilbert Gardiner’s $200 betting strategy for Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington

News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner likes a track and distance specialist in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes as he gives his betting strategy and quaddie tips at Flemington.

News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner gives his $200 betting strategy and quaddie analysis for Saturday’s Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington.

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FOUR-PLAY: $200 BETTING STRATEGY

RACE 3: LISTED SUPER IMPOSE STAKES (1800m)

$25 each-way SCARY (5) at $5.50/$2

Son of Melbourne Cup winner Shocking dominated a 1700m Sale maiden last start to propel Victoria Derby ambitions. Jockey Damian Lane has ridden the Emma-Lee and David Browne-trained colt the past two starts for a win and second place. Distance no issue at all for the three-year-old classic hopeful and should be right in the finish with even luck. Respect favourite SERGEANT MAJOR (2) and include TRUTH OR DARE (7) in any exotics.

RACE 5: GROUP 2 DANEHILL STAKES (1100m)

$50 win FIRST SETTLER (4) at $3.70

Luxurious price to be fair. Elite colt in the making and challenged Growing Empire last start in the Poseidon before fitness told late. First Settler went into that race with only one jumpout under the belt so entitled to be a bit soft at the finish. Growing Empire franked the form being touched off in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes with a big gap to third. Expect First Settler to be crunched in betting late.

Growing Empire with an emphatic victory and an exciting future! 🔥

Mark Zahra on board for @cmaherracingpic.twitter.com/PpfR6UZIAB

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 14, 2024

RACE 7: GROUP 3 THE BART CUMMINGS (2520m)

$25 each-way SAINT GEORGE (14) at $7/$2.60

Up to his right distance range and primed to go bang third-up in the Melbourne Cup qualifier at Flemington. Saint George loomed up ominously last start in the Group 3 MRC Foundation Cup (2000m) and just peaked on the run. The Group 2-placed galloper’s best form in Europe was between 2200m and 2800m. The tougher the staying test on the Saturday the better for Saint George, currently $26 with Ladbrokes for the race that stops a nation. Could be half the price after The Bart Cummings.

What a finish in the MRC Foundation Cup!

Positivity books her ticket into the Caulfield Cup! 🏆@[e-mail]/YnpRPsdhCV

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 21, 2024

RACE 8: GROUP 1 TURNBULL STAKES (2000m)

$25 each-way YOUNG WERTHER (10) at $9.50/3.10

Placed in the race twice previously and raced as well as ever the past 12 months. No one would begrudge Young Werther, placed in five of 10 starts at the highest level, a Group 1 success. The seven-year-old $2m prizemoney earner is a track and distance winner. VIA SISTINA (4) the biggest threat obviously, her best has the lot of them covered. Young Werther has firmed steadily during the week, $11 into $9.50 with Ladbrokes.

QUADZILLA

LEG 1 – RACE 7

SAINT GEORGE (14) a good thing just about licked first-up at Caulfield and then peaked on the run second-up. Out to pet distance here and the big track should be ideal. Drawn terribly, the only concern. BERKSHIRE BREEZE (16) has been aimed at The Bart Cummings for the best part of three months. Gets his chance. MANZOICE (13), the 2022 Victoria Derby winner, returns in a bid to protect his perfect Flemington 2500m record. VOW AND DECLARE (1) the knockout especially on a dry track.

1ST LEG: 1, 13, 14, 16

LEG 2 – RACE 8

VIA SISTINA (4) is the class horse of the field and her best would be more than good enough. Happy to forgive her plain performance in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes run on shifty ground. Back on top of the ground and hardest to beat. YOUNG WERTHER (10) has placed twice in the Turnbull previously. Must include. BUCKAROO (3) bolted in last start in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes – tougher ask here but cannot knock recent form.

2ND LEG: 3, 4, 10

LEG 3 – RACE 9

STRETAN ANGEL (11) has won two of three second-up previously and been runner-up on the other occasion. Good effort in difficult conditions first-up in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis Quality and should improve markedly. Group 1-winner MAGIC TIME (4) has won two of four first-up and not beaten fresh in the Newmarket Handicap last campaign. ARKANSAW KID (1) has won two of his past three starts, including the Bobbie Lewis. Flemington specialist CROSSHAVEN (9) the bolter.

3RD LEG: 1, 4, 9, 11

LEG 4 – RACE 10

SKYBIRD (4) did everything but win the Bobbie Lewis Quality last start. Back around a bend although wide draw a slight concern. POIFECT (8) will be up on the speed again and hard to run down. MISS ARIA (9) is hard fit and won three of her past five starts. Include LADY IN PINK (13), trialled impressively and Herald Sun/Racenet colleague Brad Waters has tipped the mare on top so would never hear the end of it if she won.

4TH LEG: 4, 8, 9, 13

COST $100 FOR 52%

SKINNY QUADDIE

Start with MANZOICE (13), SAINT GEORGE (14) and BERKSHIRE BREEZE (16). In the second leg take BUCKAROO (3), VIA SISTINA (4) and YOUNG WERTHER (10). Then in the third leg take MAGIC TIME (4), CROSSHAVEN (9) and STRETAN ANGEL (11). Come home with SKYBIRD (4) one out.

1ST LEG: 13, 14, 16

2ND LEG: 3, 4, 10

3RD LEG: 4, 9, 11

4TH LEG: 4

COST $100 FOR 370%

Originally published as Four-Play, Quadzilla: Gilbert Gardiner’s $200 betting strategy for Turnbull Stakes meeting at Flemington