Early Oil: Trainer Danny O’Brien set for big Makybe Diva Stakes day at Flemington
Trainer Danny O’Brien’s team should be prominent in punters’ thoughts for Flemingtons’ Makybe Diva Stakes meeting.
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s massive Makybe Diva Stakes meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
STAGEMAN (Race 8, No.8)
Former WA galloper that made an excellent Victorian debut in the Aurie’s Star Handicap. He’ll be better for the straight experience and will be harder to beat.
VALUE BET
BLUE ARMY (Race 4, No.13)
Blue Army is a four-year-old of terrific potential and is already a Group 2 winner. He has been gelded since and is ready to resume after three Cranbourne jumpouts.
EARLY QUADDIE
2, 4, 6, 13/5, 6, 7, 8, 9/3, 5, 10, 13/1, 2, 3, 7
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent
BIG6
3, 5, 10, 13/1, 2, 3, 7/2, 3, 4/1, 5, 14/4, 8, 11/1, 4, 11
$100 flexi for 7.71 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 4
Race 7: 1, 5, 6, 13, 14
Race 8: 4, 7, 8, 11
Race 9: 1, 4, 6, 11, 13
$100 flexi for 25 per cent
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RACE 1: WINNING EDGE POSIEDON STAKES (1100m)
Rain is forecast in the lead-up to the Flemington meeting but the track will be soft at worst. Tough start to an extraordinarily different program. ALPHA ONE (4) tackles the straight for the first time but is hard-fit and did a terrific job in the Vain Stakes. DOULL (6) returns after a comfortable debut win and he’ll be hard to beat. EL PADRINO (2) chased well at The Valley first-up and has drawn the right part of the track. STUPENDO is winner down the straight and has jumped out well leading up to this.
SUGGESTED BET: Alpha One to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Spacewalk $9 – $6.50
RACE 2: AUSTRALIAN CHILDHOOD FOUNDATION PLATE (1700m)
Another big field with more than half of these runners resuming from a spell. MILFORD (6) is one of the chances after improving steadily during his last campaign. His latest jumpout at Flemington showed he was in good order. BUCKHURST (4) hasn’t raced for a long time but is one of the class runners of the race. LYRICAL LAD (13) steps up in grade but he has a significant fitness advantage over his rivals. YOUNG WERTHER (2) is a quality galloper with the ability to fire fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Milford each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Lyrical Lad $4.20 – $3.40.
RACE 3: LISTED CAP D’ANTIBES STAKES (1100m)
A big field of fillies engaged here but OJAI (6) ran on well from the back when close-up at Caulfield first-up and has drawn to find the right part of the track down the straight. BUBBLE PALACE (9) showed good ability in her maiden campaign and has jumped out well. HELL HOUND (8) did a good job to win both runs last time in and she’s had more time to develop. GHANAATI (7) easily beat Group 3 winner Bound For Home down the straight on debut and should run well despite drawing the inside.
SUGGESTED BET: Ojai to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ojai $6 – $5.50.
RACE 4: THE SOFITEL (1400m)
An even bunch goes around in this but BLUE ARMY (13) is worth including first-up. He won the Sandown Guineas at only his third start and has had three jumpouts to prepare for this. He’s drawn to have every chance. SCALLOPINI (3) wasn’t disgraced behind Mr Brightside last time out and drops in class. HI STRANGER (5) was no match for the dominant I Wish I Win last time out but is worth thought. PINSTRIPED (10) is a quality galloper resuming from a spell and should measure up to open-age racing.
SUGGESTED BET: Blue Army each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: El Rocko $8 – $6.
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RACE 5: GROUP 1 MAKYBE DIVA STAKES (1600m)
Liked the way REGAL POWER (3) finished off his race when returning in the Group 2 Lawrence Stakes at Caulfield and will be much fitter for that. He’s over the odds with his unbeaten record over 1600m. I’M THUNDERSTRUCK (1) ran on hard in a good return in the Memsie Stakes and should enjoy the longer trip. CASCADIAN (2) closed well for third in the Memsie Stakes and races well over the Flemington 1600m course. WESTERN EMPIRE (7) will be much better for his sound first-up effort at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: Regal Power each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Alligator Blood $6 – $4.80.
RACE 6: THE SALLY CHIRNSIDE (2500m)
Worth keeping an eye on this race with the Cups in mind. INTERPRETATION (4), like several of the main chances, ran on well when not far away first-up and will only be fitter for that outing. VOW AND DECLARE (2) was sound when resuming over 1600m at Caulfield and will be much better suited over this trip. SERPENTINE (1) is an English Derby winner but worked hard when not disgraced at his maiden Australian run. POINT NEPEAN (3) raced in great form last time in and could be in the firing line for a long way fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Interpretation to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Point Nepean $4.80 – $3.70
RACE 7: GROUP 2 LET’S ELOPE STAKES (1400m)
I AM BENE (14) rises in class for this Group 2 assignment but her last start win at Caulfield was impressive and she still has plenty of upside. YEARNING (1) won the 1000 Guineas at Caulfield last spring and went well in her two Melbourne runs last time in. Expect her to fire fresh. TOKORANGI (13) scored first-up before a good effort at Group 2 level last time in. She’s worth thought here. KISSONALLFOURCHEEKS (5) worked home OK in the Cockram Stakes first-up and races well over this trip.
SUGGESTED BET: I Am Bene to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Kissonallfourcheeks $5 – $4.
RACE 8: GROUP 2 BOBBIE LEWIS QUALITY (1200m)
Another big field in the third leg of the Flemington quaddie but happy to back STAGEMAN (8) after his strong return to racing down the straight in the Aurie’s Star Handicap. He’ll only be fitter for that effort and placed at Group 1 level in Perth last time in. THE ASTROLOGIST (7) races best down the Flemington straight and is dual Group 1-placed. SIRIUS SUSPECT (11) flies down the straight course and should go well again. ROCH ‘N’ HORSE (4) closed well at The Valley first-up and won the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: Stageman to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Veranskova $11 – $6.50.
RACE 9: EXFORD PLATE (1400m)
Tough finish to the Flemington card but LET’SROLLTHEDICE (1) did his best work late when not far away at The Valley first-up and he won the VRC Sires’s Produce over this course second-up last time in. FAST WITNESS (4) stepped up sharply in class to score at Listed level last time and is worth including again. BERKELEY SQUARE (6) has shown plenty of talent and will be prominent despite the tough draw. FOUJITA SAN (11) was OK at The Valley but will be suited on the bigger Flemington track.
SUGGESTED BET: Let’srollthedice to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Foujita San $7 – $6.
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Originally published as Early Oil: Trainer Danny O’Brien set for big Makybe Diva Stakes day at Flemington
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