Early Oil: Preview, best bets for Cox Plate day at The Valley
Gold Trip can atone for a luckless run in last year’s Cox Plate while a Grahame Begg-trained runner can end Cox Plate day on a high for punters on Saturday.
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Cox Plate meeting at The Valley.
BEST BET
MAHARBA (Race 10, No.2)
Maharba was too strong in a small field second-up and that form stood up at Caulfield last week. No reason he can’t win again.
VALUE BET
SUNSOURCE (Race 7, No.1)
Sunsource chased well behind an impressive winner at Flemington but looks ready for the step to 2040m on Saturday’s. He’s over the odds.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 6, 7/3, 5, 11, 12/1, 4, 6/2, 3, 6, 8
$100 flexi for 52 per cent
BIG6
1, 4, 6/2, 3, 6, 8/1, 3/6/1, 4, 5, 9/1, 2
$100 flexi for 52 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1, 3
Race 6: 6
Race 7: 1, 4, 5, 9
Race 8: 1, 2
$100 flexi for 625 per cent
RACE 1: 12:10PM STRATHMORE COMMUNITY BENDIGO BANK HANDICAP (1000m)
Good ground is likely for The Valley’s biggest days. Tricky little field to start but FASUTO (4) could be ready to improve after losing the rider when making ground at The Valley last time. His first-up run was excellent. SHALAMAN (5) is racing and has a good record at The Valley and won’t be far away. UNFLINCHING (2) has plenty of speed and will be fitter for his first-up run. ASHFORD STREET (1) drops in class and is worth thought.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Fasuto.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Taunting $2.70 – $2.20.
RACE 2: 12:45PM INGLIS BANNER (1000m)
A full field of first starters to tackle this race. BLUE STRATUM (15) looked a ready-made two-year-old with a professional jumpout win at Terang and he’s drawn perfectly. CHOSEN LEGEND (9) won a Cranbourne trial and is bred for speed. RUE DE ROYAL (5) ran on OK in his jumpout and worked well at The Valley on Tuesday morning. BLUE ALLURE (7) has shown enough to suggest she’ll go well on debut.
SUGGESTED BET: Blue Stratum to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Blue Stratum $3.80 – $2.40.
RACE 3: 1:20PM GROUP 3 POWERFLO SOLUTIONS TESIO STAKES (1600m)
WISHLOR LASS (2) was well rated and kept finding to score at Caulfield and looks well suited drawing the inside barrier with her on-pace racing style. DAZZLING LUCY (7) wasn’t far away at Flemington and that form stood up last week at Flemington. THALASSOPHILE (1) ran on well at Randwick second-up and will be fitter again. MARACANA (6) faded at Caulfield second-up but will be fitter for that.
SUGGESTED BET: Wishlor Lass to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Osmose $14 – $9.
RACE 4: 1:55PM LISTED PFD FOOD SERVICES CROCKETT STAKES (1200m)
One of the harder races of the day but putting faith in FLOOZIE (12) to make a quantum leap from maiden grade to stakes company after a strong maiden win. PARADISE CITY (11) has done everything right at her two runs and could measure up. SHEVA (5) sprinted well to win at Caulfield and is unbeaten over 1200m. INHIBITIONS (3) didn’t run out 1400m at Caulfield but will be suited at 1200m.
SUGGESTED BET: Floozie each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Inhibitions $6.50 – $4.60.
RACE 5: 2:30PM GROUP 2 MCCAFE CRYSTAL MILE (1600m)
The small field is likely to produce a tactical affair, which could suit TUVALU (1) from barrier two after a fighting second to Alligator Blood at Caulfield last start. Kiwi mare PROWESS (6) was a Group 1 winner in Sydney in the autumn and went well first-up. ANTINO (4) was narrowly beaten at Caulfield and should have every chance. BANKERS CHOICE (2) is racing well and should be around the mark again.
SUGGESTED BET: Tuvalu to win/box trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Tuvalu $3.20 – $2.70.
RACE 6: 3:05PM GROUP 2 3 POINT MOTORS FILLIES CLASSIC (1600m)
SKYBIRD (8) has looked a smart type in the making with her two easy wins to date. Getting to 1600m and The Valley track should suit her racing style well enough for her to stay unbeaten. CARINA QUEEN (3) finished off well to score at Sandown second-up and will continue to improve. APRILLIA (2) pushed forward and went well over 1600m at Flemington and should be thereabouts. NODACHI (6) was sound from a tricky draw at Flemington but should have a softer run.
SUGGESTED BET: Skybird to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Skybird $4.60 – $4.20.
RACE 7: 3:40PM GROUP 2 DRUMMOND GOLF VASE (2040m)
An even edition of the Vase. SUNSOURCE (1) gave a promising stayer too much start at Flemington but looks ready for the rise to 2040m in this. VERDAD (3) won the Stutt Stakes in strong fashion before going well in the Caulfield Guineas so expect another strong run. SNOWMAN (5) beat Riff Rocket easily two runs back and was OK last time. He’ll enjoy 2040m. PORT LOCKROY (6) is an improving type that could handle the class rise.
SUGGESTED BET: Sunsource each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Verdad $2.80 – $2.60.
RACE 8: 4:20PM GROUP 1 LADBROKES MANIKATO STAKES (1200m)
Kiwi mare IMPERATRIZ (6) has blitzed her rivals over 1000m at her two runs this time in but should relish the 1200m at this stage of her campaign. THE INFERNO (1) did his best work late in the Moir Stakes first-up and will be much fitter for that. I AM ME (7) has built a terrific record in Sydney and should be in this for a long way. BUENOS NOCHES (2) will give a start but has the quality to figure in the finish.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 6, 7
TAB MARKET MOVER: Imperatriz $1.45 – $1.40.
RACE 9: 5:10PM GROUP 1 COX PLATE (2040m)
Extremely difficult Cox Plate to assess but GOLD TRIP (5) looks a good each-way chance on his brilliant win in the Turnbull Stakes and his excellent third in the Caulfield Cup. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (4) was impressive in the Might And Power to answer questions about him at 2000m in emphatic fashion. DUAIS (9) has been strong at the end of her last two runs and can show up here. ROMANTIC WARRIOR (1) will be much better for his fourth in the Turnbull Stakes.
SUGGESTED BET: Gold Trip each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mr Brightside $8.50 – $6.50.
RACE 10: 5:50PM GROUP 3 SHARP EIT SOLUTIONS RED ANCHOR STAKES (1200m)
Happy to back MAHARBA (2) to finish the day on a high after his excellent second-up win at The Valley from which he will only be improved. SCHWARZ (10) was a dominant winner in NSW on debut and could measure up. LORDSTER (8) has shown talent over 1200m at his last two runs and could run well at odds. BARBER (1) drops in class after two solid efforts in Sydney this time in.
SUGGESTED BET: Maharba to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Schwarz $5 – $4.80.
Originally published as Early Oil: Preview, best bets for Cox Plate day at The Valley
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