Early Oil: Preview, best bets for Caulfield Guineas day
A close second at Group 1 level will leave Asfoora in perfect shape for her assignment while a bold frontrunner will be hard to catch at good odds at Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas meeting.
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s massive Caulfield Guineas program
BEST BET
ASFOORA (Race 5, No.7)
It took a mighty effort from Imperatriz to deny her in the Moir Stakes but Asfoora gets back to the Caulfield 1100m course and should be too good.
VALUE BET
BUFFALO RIVER (Race 6, No.2)
Led and kept rolling to score at Caulfield last time and will find it easier to find the front this time. He’ll be tough to run down again.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 8/2, 4, 6, 9/2, 7/1, 2, 3, 6
$100 flexi for 104 per cent
BIG6
2, 7/1, 2, 3, 6/1, 6, 9/5, 8, 10, 13/1, 4, 8/3, 4, 10
$100 flexi for 11.6 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 6, 9
Race 8: 5, 8, 10, 13
Race 9: 1, 4, 8
Race 10: 3, 4, 10
$100 flexi for 92 percent
RACE 1: 12:15PM GRAND HANDICAP (1700m)
Expecting good to soft conditions for Caulfield Guineas day. The hardest race of the day starts the meeting with a likely moderate tempo to make things harder for punters. WORSFOLD (3) hasn’t had the best of luck in his last couple of outings but is worth a small each-way play. GRAND PIERRO (7) ran on OK at Mornington first-up and will be fitter. RHINOCEROS (12) steps up in class but is one of the likely leaders and has won at Caulfield. OUR EMPRESS ZOE (14) rises in grade but is racing well.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Worsfold each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Matron Bullwinkel $9.50 – $7.
RACE 2: 12:50PM THOROUGHBRED CUB PLATE (1200m)
SHESALLSHENANIGANS (1) is in well under the set weights and penalties conditions of this event and should get the perfect run from barrier four. APPIN GIRL (2) was scratched at the barriers on her Melbourne debut but has jumped out well since. EXCESS (8) impressed when winning a strong maiden on debut and could measure up to this. Winx’s little sister TIME OF MY LIFE (10) won well on debut and will be better for that experience.
SUGGESTED BET: Shesallshenanigans to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Appin Girl $3.20 – $2.60
RACE 3: 1:25PM GROUP 2 NEDS HERBERT POWER STAKES (2400m)
A Caulfield Cup start is on the line in the Herbert Power Stakes. CARINI (8) looks a natural stayer that should have no issue jumping to 2400m at Caulfield and the 53kg is another positive. REGAL POWER (2) relished jumping to 2400m when narrowly beaten at Mornington and should go well again. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (1) showed enough in the Naturalism Stakes to suggest he’s ready for this trip now. MIILTARY MISSION (4) ran will in the Metropolitan Handicap in Sydney last start and drops in class for this.
SUGGESTED BET: Carini to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Carini $3.20 – $2.60.
RACE 4: 2:00PM SENET NORTHWOOD PLUME STAKES (1200m)
Good mares’ race with enough speed on to give all runners a chance. SERADESS (6) will be much fitter for two runs back from a spell should be in this for a long way. RED CARD (2) just went too hard in front last time out but can improve. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE (4) was solid at her first run for two months last start and will be better for it. CARDIGAN QUEEN (9) ran on well to score fresh and should have enough pace on to threaten again.
SUGGESTED BET: Seradess to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Red Card $3.40 – $2.80.
RACE 5: 2:35PM GROUP 2 METCAP FINANCE SCHILLACI STAKES (1100m)
The smallest field of the day will be perfect for ASFOORA (7) to have the ideal run and she’ll find this easier than tackling Imperatriz. UNCOMMON JAMES (2) was sound when resuming in the Moir Stakes and shapes as the main danger to Asfoora. INGRATIATING (1) is fresh for this and has a terrific record at Caulfield. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (8) has the talent to run a big race first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Asfoora to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Uncommon James $3.20 – $2.30.
RACE 6: 3:10PM LISTED THE BIG SCREEN COMPANY WEEKEND HUSSLER (1400m)
BUFFALO RIVER (2) bounced back to winning ways with a bold win last time out and should find the lead easily again here. He’ll give a big sight in front. WELWAL (3) will resume as a gelding in this but his Caulfield jumpouts have been promising. REGARDSMAREE (6) has gone well in slightly easier races but races well at Caulfield and won’t be far away. AYRTON (1) has disappointed punters a few times in recent campaigns but has the ability to fire fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Buffalo River each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ayrton $4.20 – $4.
RACE 7: 3:45PM GROUP 1 NEDS MIGHT AND POWER (2000m)
Tricky race for punters with a few queries on most runners. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (1) is a little query at 2000m but was solid at the end of 1800m last time out and should have the perfect run whether he leads or not. JUST FINE (6) drops back from 2000m but is racing in great form. DENY KNOWLEDGE (10) should enjoy stepping up to 2000m and will lead for a long way. DUAIS (9) caught the eye when third in the Underwood Stakes and won’t be far away again.
SUGGESTED BET: Alligator Blood to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Just Fine $5.50 – $3.80.
RACE 8: 4:30PM GROUP 3 CATANACH’S JEWELLERS VASE (1600m)
Another even contest for the mares but the lightly-raced WISHLOR LASS (10) improved nicely to score at Sandown second-up and will be fitter again for this. PARTY PRINCESS (5) will find this easier than chasing home Amelia’s Jewell at The Valley. TAJNEED (13) steps up in class but wasn’t far away on this track last time and has drawn to have every chance. NUNTHORPE (8) has led throughout to win her last two runs over 1400m and should go well again.
SUGGESTED BET: Wishlor Lass to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Nunthorpe $6.50 – $4.60
RACE 9: 5:10PM GROUP 1 NEDS CAULFIELD GUINEAS (1600m)
MILITARIZE (1) is an outstanding colt that charged home to win the Golden Rose in Sydney last time out, which has been the top Caulfield Guineas form race for a few years now. Barrier 12 won’t be a problem as there will be enough pace on. SCENTIFY (8) looks to be well suited stepping up to 1600m and he’ll be one of the hardest to hold out. STEPARTY (4) has met every challenge thrown his way to date and must be respected. VERDAD (11) was solid in the Stutt Stakes and is proven over 1600m.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 4, 8, 11
TAB MARKET MOVER: Militarize $2.90 – $2.80
RACE 10: 5:50PM GROUP 1 HYLAND RACE COLOURS TOORAK HANDICAP (1600m)
Terrific edition of the Toorak Handicap. AMELIA’S JEWEL (3) has plenty of weight for a mare but she’s a class performer that should handle it. PRIDE OF JENNI (10) stretched Amelia’s Jewel in the Stocks Stakes and drops 4kg on that outing. The 1600m is a query but she’s racing well. PINSTRIPED (4) produced a big effort to win the Feehan Stakes last time out and is a chance to notch his first Group 1 win. AMENABLE (15) is better than what he showed last time out and drops 5kg.
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 1/ 4, 10, 15/ 4, 10, 15
TAB MARKET MOVER: Amelia’s Jewel $2.30 – $2.20.
Originally published as Early Oil: Preview, best bets for Caulfield Guineas day
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