Caulfield Cup 2022: Runner-by-runner analysis for the $5m Group 1 staying contest

It’s hard to knock the Caulfield Cup favourite as Gilbert Gardiner assesses the field to sort out the contenders.

3 min read

October 13, 2022 - 10:27AM

News Corp Racing and Sports Wagering Hub

Turnbull Stakes winner Smokin’ Romans ticks a lot of boxes in the Caulfield Cup. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

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News Corp form analyst Gilbert Gardiner looks at the chances of every runner in Saturday’s $5m Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m).

1. GOLD TRIP (12) 57.5kg – $10

Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Wet: 11: 1-3-3

GILBERT SAYS: Entitled to get tired late in the Turnbull after wide run. Strikes pet distance and conditions, but finds it hard to win.

2. DUAIS (9) 55.5kg – $13

Trainer: Edward Cummings

Jockey: Joshua Parr

Wet: 12: 3-1-1

GILBERT SAYS: Out to a silly quote, shades of Verry Elleegant in the Melbourne Cup last year. Quality mare prepared solely for Cups and gets her chance. Three wet wins on soft, not heavy ground.

Is Duais ready to show her best? Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

3. KNIGHTS ORDER (18) 55.5kg – $16

Trainers: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark

Wet: 12: 5-1-2

GILBERT SAYS: Nightmare barrier but rain puts the bold on-pacer right in the picture. The Sydney Cup (3200m) should find the front and be hard to run down.

4. MONTEFILIA (16) 55.5kg – $19

Trainer: David Payne

Jason: Jason Collett

Wet: 15: 3-1-4

GILBERT SAYS: Class will take her a long way but suspect racing on extremely heavy, tired tracks in Sydney has taken the edge off the mare. Fourth in the Caulfield Cup last year.

5. NUMERIAN (10) 55.5kg – $12

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Wet: 11: 2-4-1

GILBERT SAYS: Has the right trainer, jockey and barrier to be prominent but distance, more so than conditions, the query.

6. NONCONFORMIST (15) 54.5kg – $10

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: Jordan Childs

Wet: 8: 2-1-0

GILBERT SAYS: Runner-up last year, beating all but freak Incentivise, and trained to the minute to go one better. Not raced on a heavy track before.

Nonconformist finished second in the Caulfield Cup last year. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

7. VOW AND DECLARE (17) 54kg – $21

Trainer: Danny O’Brien

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Wet: 8: 2-0-2

GILBERT SAYS: Intriguing race within the race with Vow And Declare having to finish inside the top eight to qualify for the Melbourne Cup. Racing in fine fettle of late but like a few of his rivals, untried on heavy ground.

8. NO COMPROMISE (13) 53.5kg – $21

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Wet: 23: 6-4-7

GILBERT SAYS: Joined half-sister Tofane in the Group 1 club last start, winning the Metropolitan (2400m). Superior wet form but half-brother Benaud looks the stronger of the two sons of broodmare Baggy Green.

9. ALEGRON (14) 53kg – $11

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Wet: 4: 1-0-1

GILBERT SAYS: Trainer and jockey both in scintillating form this spring. Vulnerable on a heavy track but will run the distance out strongly.

10. BENAUD (20) 53kg – $9

Trainer: John O‘Shea

Jockey: Regan Bayliss

Wet: 10: 1-3-0

GILBERT SAYS: Will come in at least two spots after scratchings but even then, winning from barrier 18 the past decade has been reserved for freak stayers Incentivise (2021) and Dunaden (2012).

Benaud has a wide barrier to overcome on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

11. GREAT HOUSE (3) 53kg – $21

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Brett Prebble

Wet: 13: 3-2-4

GILBERT SAYS: Sneaky good runs the past two and should be doing best work late on a path towards the Melbourne Cup. Don‘t overlook in trifecta and first four plays.

12. INSPIRATIONAL GIRL (1) 53kg – $14

Trainer: Danny O‘Brien

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Wet: 5: 2-1-1

GILBERT SAYS: First go beyond 2000m but the way the mare hit the line in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes, after being held up at a critical stage, bodes well.

13. MAXIMAL (19) 53kg – $21

Trainer: John O‘Shea

Jockey: Ben Melham

Wet: 3: 0-1-0

GILBERT SAYS: No thanks. Needs dry ground to show best.

14. SOUND (4) 53kg – $101

Trainer: Michael Moroney

Jockey: Blaike McDougall

Wet: 20: 3-1-2

GILBERT SAYS: Wait for the Zipping Classic in November.

15. CHAPADA (15) 52.5kg – $51

Trainer: Michael Moroney

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Wet: 15: 1-2-2

GILBERT SAYS: Sixth in a stronger Caulfield Cup last year off a similar build-up. Hard to catch but could be one for the wider exotics.

16. CRYSTAL PEGASUS (2) 52kg – $61

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Damien Thornton

Wet: 9: 2-2-1

GILBERT SAYS: Closer to last than first.

Crystal Pegasus is a roughie in the field. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

17. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (5) 51.5kg – $4.60f

Trainers: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Wet: 10: 3-4-0

GILBERT SAYS: Cannot find a box he doesn’t tick: Form, barrier, weight, conditions, racing pattern, trainer and jockey. His Caulfield Cup to lose.

18. TRALEE ROSE (8) 51.5kg – $81

Trainer: Symon Wilde

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Wet: 7: 2-3-0

Her best is good enough in this sort of field but nowhere near her best at the moment.

19e. DURSTON (6) 51.5kg – $21

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Michael Dee

Wet: 11: 3-1-2

GILBERT SAYS: Sneaky top five chance if he gained a start. Keen to see from Melbourne Cup perspective also, currently 27th in the order of entry.

20e. MAKRAM (7) 50kg – $34

Trainers: Ben & JD Hayes

Jockey: Not Notified

Wet: 7: 3-1-0

GILBERT SAYS: Big finish on him and has won over 2400m in Europe. The Geelong or Bendigo cups look nice fallback options should he not get a run on Saturday.