Brad Waters best bets and analysis of PB Lawrence Stakes meeting at Caulfield

A first-up specialist can repeat her heroics of the corresponding day last year while a Group 1 winner could spring a surprise in the last race of Saturday’s P B Lawrence Stakes meeting at Caulfield.

First-up specialist Bound For Home has the chance to post another fresh win when she returns to racing at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s PB Lawrence Stakes meeting at Caulfield.

BEST BET

BOUND FOR HOME (Race 4, No.1)

Bound For Home is unbeaten first-up and won the Quezette Stakes on this day last year. Her jumpouts have been terrific and she can again score fresh.

VALUE BET

SMOKIN’ ROMANS (Race 10, No.1)

Smokin’ Romans could surprise in the last at Caulfield. He’s one of the class runners of the field his last trial in Sydney indicated he has returned in good order.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 3, 10, 11/1, 5, 7, 12/4, 8/1, 3, 4, 5

$100 flexi for 62.5 per cent

BIG6

4, 8/1, 3, 4, 5/1, 2, 8, 10/1, 2, 7/1, 9/2, 6, 9, 11

$100 flexi for 13 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1, 2, 8, 10

Race 8: 1, 2, 7

Race 9: 1, 9

Race 10: 2, 6, 9, 11

$100 flexi for 104 per cent

Last-start Sale winner Seafield Road is capable of causing an upset at $41 in the first race of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 1: 11:55AM MRC CHAIRMAN’S CLUB CAULFIELD ASPIRANT (1400m)

The first race at Caulfield on Saturday is a raffle for punters but SEAFIELD ROAD (3) could be the winning ticket. He raced handy before scoring at Sale last time and loves 1400m. HARD QUESTIONS (9) races well first-up and is unbeaten over 1400m so expecting a good run from him. RIVKIN (5) was solid down the straight at Flemington and looks ready to step up in trip. LULU DARLING (7) is racing well at Geelong and is worth thought.

SUGGESTED BET: Seafield Road each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: First Mate $5.50 – $4.60.

RACE 2: 12:25PM MRC CHAIRMAN’S CLUB FIRST RENEWAL ALAN YATES (1400m)

Might be a bit of early pressure here, which could set up the race for ANAHITA (4) to finish strongly. She was too good at Sandown last time out and should have every chance. MOVADER (7) ran on soundly when not far away last time and has drawn well. LIFE LESSONS (1) is a talented type resuming and drops in class on her last run. STARLIGHT SCOPE (2) can roll forward again and be in this for a long way.

SUGGESTED BET: Anahita to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Life Lessons $3.90 – $3.60.

RACE 3: 1:00PM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1200m)

HOLYMANZ (3) has won both first-up starts and showed Group-level ability last time in so expecting to measure up to this fresh. RANTING (2) hasn’t won for a while but showed he was going well enough when running on well at Flemington. DO YA PUNK (1) will be suited racing back around a bend after two good efforts down the Flemington straight. ANILLA (11) did a good job behind a handy type fresh and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Holymanz to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Calico Jack $7.50 – $6.50.

RACE 4: 1:35PM SENET GAMBLING LAW EXPERTS HANDICAP (1100m)

BOUND FOR HOME (1) will be tough to beat here as she is unbeaten first-up and won on this day last year. She’s performed impressively at the jumpouts and looks suited. DIAMONDS INTHE SKY (7) led and tried hard behind Twin Perfection, who showed that’s good form at The Valley last Saturday. YELLOW SAM (13) steps up in class but she’s lightly-raced and talented. MARBLE ARCH (5) impressed last time in and should be thereabouts.

SUGGESTED BET: Bound For Home to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Flying On A Limb $7 – $4.80

Top Sydney colt Cylinder will head south to tackle the local three-year-olds in the Vain Stakes. Picture: Getty Images.

RACE 5: 2:10PM THOROUGHBRED CLUB AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1400m)

The 1400m might be a shade short for CARINI (8) but the French-bred galloper has been jumped out well at Flemington and Geelong. AMENABLE (4) is a quality four-year-old resuming after tackling good company as a three-year-old. He has plenty of quality about him. BLOW IN (16) finished well to score at Sandown second-up and is worth including despite the draw. CRESTANI (14) ran on well at Sandown last start and is one for the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: Back Carini and Amenable to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Amenable $6 – $3.90.

RACE 6: 2:45PM LISTED EVERGREEN TURF REGAL ROLLER STAKES (1200m)

Good race but going with IT’SOURTIME (3) to make use of his fitness advantage here. He charged home to win the Aurie’s Star Handicap at Flemington after a strong effort in the Bletchingly Stakes. Hard to beat. CHASSIS (5) also comes out of the Aurie’s Star and should again perform well. THUNDER BEAUTY (4) is a Maher and Eustace-trained import that has looked sharp at the jumpouts. BANDERSNATCH (1) is a quality galloper that should show up fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: It’sourtime to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: $5.50 – $4.40.

RACE 7: 3:25PM XTREME FREIGHT HANDICAP (2040m)

The Quezette Stakes is a good spring form reference and ULANOVA (1) could be one to follow. She became a Group 1 winner in NZ last season after the disqualification of another runner but she’s a class filly. SHESALLSHENANIGANS (8) was outstanding in the autumn and has had more time to develop. CHARM STONE (3) has shown ability in three runs and trialled impressively at Cranbourne. TIZ ENUF (10) has plenty of speed and will be fitter for her first-up win.

SUGGESTED BET: Ulanova each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Kimochi $7.50 – $6

Smokin' Romans is good value at $26 in early betting on the last race of Saturday’s PB Lawrence Stakes meeting at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 8: 4:05PM GROUP 3 IVE > VAIN STAKES (1100m)

The day’s smallest field goes around in the Vain Stakes but it features some real talent. VEECEE (7) showed a good motor first-up last time in before going well in Group class. He’ll be a bigger and stronger unit this time in. CYLINDER (2) enjoyed a terrific two-year-old season and has looked good in Sydney trials. Blue Diamond Stakes winner LITTLE BROSE (1) has the class to fire fresh while OUROBOROS (6) is improving and will be hard fit for three runs in.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 7.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Cylinder $1.80 – $1.70.

RACE 9: 4:40PM GROUP 2 QUAYCLEAN PB LAWRENCE STAKES (1400m)

The first Victorian weight-for-age race of the season looks the perfect first-up assignment for MR BRIGHTSIDE (1), who will be short of peak fitness but looks likely to have too much acceleration for his rivals. POUNDING (9) has placed twice first-up and never runs a bad race. ATTRITION (15) is a horse on the rise and goes well at 1400m so expect him to charge home late. WESTERN EMPIRE (5) has moved very well at the jumpouts and could be on his way back to his best form.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 5, 9, 15

TAB MARKET MOVER: Mr Brightside $2.50 – $2.

RACE 10: 5:15PM TAKE IT TO THE NEDS LEVEL HANDICAP (1600m)

An extremely difficult race for punters to close out proceedings but SMOKIN’ ROMANS (2) could surprise at odds. His first-up record is a bit better than it looks on paper and he trialled well behind a subsequent first-up winner in Sydney. JUNIPAL (11) has steadily improved this time in and could be ready to win despite drawing awkwardly. BERKELEY SQUARE (9) ran on well at his first run back from injury and will charge home again from well back. BEAR STORY (6) wasn’t disgraced first-up last time in and has had more time to acclimatise.

SUGGESTED BET: Smokin’ Romans each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Deny Knowledge $7.50 – $6.

Originally published as Brad Waters best bets and analysis of PB Lawrence Stakes meeting at Caulfield