Brad Waters best bets and analysis for Saturday’s meeting at The Valley

A progressive stayer from the Patrick Payne stable can handle another step up in class while a Perth galloper

Smart stayer Mathew can continue his rise through the grades with another win at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s meeting at The Valley.

BEST BET

MATHEW (Race 8, No.5)

The Patrick Payne-trained galloper is a talented stayer on the rise. He’s up to 2500m at The Valley but can continue his progress with another win.

VALUE BET

ACROMANTULA (Race 9, No.1)

The Perth sprinter went to another level in his last two runs and trialled well before heading to Melbourne. He’s over the odds.

EARLY QUADDIE

2, 4, 6, 7/3, 4, 6, 11/1, 3, 4, 6/4, 6, 9, 13

$100 flexi for 39.06 per cent

BIG6

1, 3, 4, 6/4, 6, 9, 13/1, 2, 5/5, 11/1, 4, 8/9, 10, 12

$100 flexi for 11.6 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1, 2, 5

Race 8: 5, 11

Race 9: 1, 4, 8

Race 10: 9, 10, 12

$100 flexi for 185 per cent

Consistent sprinter Twin Perfection will shoot for a third straight win when the Phillip Stokes-trained sprinter heads to The Valley. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 1: 11:55AM QUENTIN WALLACE HANDICAP (1000m)

Good three-year-old sprint to start The Valley meeting. MANSIERE (4) might be the way to go in the first after a dominant Bendigo win, which followed losing a race on protest at Werribee. He’s progressive. PRIDE OF SULLIVAN (8) showed great pace to score on debut and could be hard to catch around The Valley. MANTUA (5) has been consistent to date and could improve with blinkers first time. EPIC PROPORTIONS (1) did a good job when narrowly beaten last time and will go well again.

SUGGESTED BET: Mansiere to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Lakota Fire $4.80 – $3.90.

RACE 2: 12:25PM JAMES MILLER HANDICAP (1000m)

Another speed test here but going with TWIN PERFECTION (4) to race handy again and be hard to hold out. He’s racing in great form and could complete a hat trick of wins. NEVERSTANDINGSTILL (3) fought on well to score first-up and Sandown and will be much fitter for that. The lightly-raced BANGHOLME (7) was a game winner on the synthetic last time and could improve with blinkers on. JUNGLE SENSATION (5) was solid again when racing on the speed at Moe and races well at The Valley.

SUGGESTED BET: Twin Perfection to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Twin Perfection $7.50 – $4.60.

RACE 3: 1:00PM FRANCES GIBSON HANDICAP (1600m)

Tricky race but CHANDON BURJ (2) could be just about ready to win after chasing well against the bias here last time out and she’ll be fitter for four runs this time in. PITCHANUN (6) was a beaten favourite at Flemington last time but she’s consistent and loves The Valley. LA ZUCCA (4) was another disadvantaged at the last meeting here but has drawn to have every chance. LIEVORE (7) was a gritty winner last start and should be prominent again.

SUGGESTED BET: Chandon Burj to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: La Zucca $13 – $11

Grahame Begg will give Scantoon his second run in six days when the gelding competes at The Valley. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: 1:35PM MAUREEN SALTER HANDICAP (1600m)

SCANTOON (4) is on a six-day back-up after a fighting effort at Sandown last Sunday where he worked early and fought on well. He can improve sharply with a much softer run this time. OKAY CUPID (11) led and kept finding to score at Sandown last time and the form out of that race has stood up. ASPEN COLORADO (3) ran on well when close-up at Sandown but has gone well at both Valley runs. MASTER OF CHANT (6) boxed on well to win at his local debut and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Scantoon each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Okay Cupid $5.50 – $4.60.

RACE 5: 2:10PM GWENDA FITZGERALD HANDICAP (1200m)

Good quality sprint contest here but SESSIONS ROAD (3) could provide a minor upset after a solid effort at Flemington last time out. Watch for him late. MAXIMILLIUS (6) is a talented type resuming and drops back from contesting Group races in the autumn. RECOMMENDATION (1) was a big improver last time in and should be thereabouts. BELLE ET RICHE (4) is another talented galloper resuming after a good effort in Group class in the autumn.

SUGGESTED BET: Sessions Road each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Recommendation $4.20 – $2.40.

RACE 6: 2:45PM LADBROKES RACING CLUB CHALLENGER HANDICAP (2040m)

Possibly the toughest race of the day but LA SPEZIA (13) showed she was just about ready to win when narrowly beaten on the synthetic third-up and she likes The Valley. FLORIDA DREAM (4) chased steadily over 1800m at Sandown and will be fitter for this longer test. ASHY BOY (6) led and faded third-up at Sandown but blinkers come off and he’ll be fitter again. SUPERSTOCK (11) is racing consistently and must be respected again.

SUGGESTED BET: La Spezia each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: La Spezia $12 – $10.

RACE 7: 3:20PM XTREME FREIGHT HANDICAP (2040m)

A small field is engaged but MILFORD (2) can finally break through for a deserved win after a luckless outing at The Valley last time. He meets the winner 2kg better at the weights. FLASH FLOOD (5) rises in weight after a determined win last start but he’ll get every chance to post his fourth straight win. FLOATING ARTIST (1) will be much fitter for his solid first-up effort at Flemington. SISSOKO (6) is the big query runner at his first run back from a long spell but he’s Group 1-placed in England.

SUGGESTED BET: Milford to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Milford $3.70 – $3.20.

Milford will be out to stop a run of minor placings with a deserved win at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8: 3:55PM LADBROKES ODDS SURGE HANDICAP (2500m)

MATHEW (5) is a lightly-raced stayer but he’s a horse going places as shown by his dominant win at Sale. The 2500m will be no problem for him and he can win again. BOTANY (11) is another promising stayer stepping up to 2500m but she was excellent racing on the speed at Sandown and will go well. THE CUNNING FOX (7) regained winning form at Sale and should be thereabouts. WUDZZ (4) is racing consistently and should have every chance.

SUGGESTED BET: Mathew to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Mathew $6.50 – $5.

RACE 9: 4:35PM STEVEOS SCAMPER HANDICAP (1000m)

A smallish field but a tough race for punters because half of the field had their last runs interstate. ACROMANTULA (1) resumes after giving a great sight behind the brilliant mare Amelia’s Jewel in Perth at his last run. Expecting him to measure up to this. OMNI MAN (4) has built a terrific record in Sydney and will be hard to run down. INUNDATION (8) is a smart local sprinter that won easily at his only other Valley run. SWEET RIDE (5) was solid in the Monash Stakes two runs back and should enjoy the speed on.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 4, 5, 8.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Omni Man $3.60 – $2.50.

RACE 10: 5:10PM LADBROKE IT! (1200m)

Looking down in the weights in the last at The Valley. HELIX (10) showed plenty of ability in his first campaign and has performed well enough at the jumpouts to suggest he’ll go well fresh. CUTE AS (9) scored a surprise first-up but should be respected again. LUNA CAT (13) chased well when resuming at Sandown and will be much fitter. MISS TAKE (12) is a promising that could continue to improve on her last-start win.

SUGGESTED BET: Helix to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Perielle $3.60 – $3.50.