Why Australia will win the World Cup with a ‘dated’ method that is anything but

England, they said, had reinvented ODI cricket; Australia stuck playing a ‘dated’ style. In truth, it is Justin Langer’s modern embrace of data-led selections that is proving a winning formula.

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The secret ingredient in Australia’s crafty World Cup selections is the term taking over white-ball cricket — match-ups.

Naming the Aussies’ best XI is impossible. It changes almost every game. In the past four matches coach Justin Langer has swung eight changes, naming two inclusions at every toss.

Saturday night’s opponent, New Zealand, is yet to pull a single move in seven World Cup games.

The Aussies are cricket’s version of transformers, and it is being driven by data.

Jason Behrendorff was a surprise pick for some but was the perfect match-up for England’s top-order.

“Where data is very important is selection,” Langer told News Corp.

“My past analyst, Dean Plunkett, became one of my most important selectors. He wasn’t officially a selector, it’s like leadership without a title.

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“It’s the same with Dene Hills now. When they say ‘this is what you should consider — when we play whoever you might need to play the offspinner, you might need to play the legspinner or the left-armer,’ when you select the team, you look at it.”

It’s an innovative approach. Entering the tournament, everyone thought England’s all-out batting aggression had the hosts ahead of the curve.

Instead, it was Australia’s selection of Jason Behrendorff — the left-armer who bagged 5/44 at Lord’s — that left England behind the eight ball on Tuesday.

Australia head coach Justin Langer relies on the data to inform his match day selections.

Behrendorff was earmarked for that game a long way out, because he matches up well with England’s top order.

“Each game you look at that and find your best five bowlers that match up with their top order, and then the batters come up with their best plans individually to negate their bowlers,” captain Aaron Finch said.

“I know we say that word (match ups) a lot, but it does come down to whether there are some serious discrepancies in guys' numbers against certain types of bowlers in certain conditions.”

Strike weapons Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins are locks, but Australia’s other two bowling slots are up for grabs.

They’ve rolled through third-seamers Behrendorff, Kane Richardson and Nathan Coulter-Nile and spinners Adam Zampa and Nathan Lyon.

The Aussies get the “Rolls Royce” version of data and Langer then relies on “really smart people who are mathematically-minded” to crunch it into gold nuggets.

“I learnt this through my tenure at the Scorchers, you’ve got to simplify it as much as possible,” he said.

“As a coach you’ve got to find the gold nuggets in the data, and then I can sell that to the players.”

Behrendorff took his first ODI five-wicket haul in the demolition of England.

Behrendorff was picked because he swings the ball back into the right-hander and away from the left-hander.

He also takes powerplay wickets, and that fits the Langer model.

“I haven't learnt it through this World Cup, I have known it for 10 years. If you get wickets in the first 10 overs you win most games,” he said.

“The really interesting trend is that very few wickets have fallen in the first 10 overs.

“A huge part of our success is the way Finchy and David Warner have batted together and our ability to not lose wickets in the first 10.”

Australia’s powerplay bowling average of 40.2 ranks fourth in the World Cup, slightly behind New Zealand (37.9), but with the bat they boast that near-unbreakable opening partnership.

Warner and Finch, the tournament’s two leading run-scorers, are averaging 17-over partnerships.

And who comes in at No. 3 largely depends on who went out — more cutting-edge innovation.

“Australia are showing flexibility in their thinking,” former great Jason Gillespie noted.

David Warner and Aaron Finch are the most productive opening partnership at the World Cup.

“It’s obvious they have planned the batting order so that, if Finch gets out, Steve Smith goes in at No. 3, and if the left-handed Warner gets out, in comes Usman Khawaja.

“They believe the right-left combination is the way to go and are trusting their methods.”

Langer swears that the adaptability of his team and shuffling batting order is its No. 1 strength, and not a weakness.

The build-before-you-launch batting strategy has long been hit for six by commentators.

“Outdated” and “conservative” are among the stinging criticisms recently levelled by Michael Vaughan and Shane Warne, as England was praised for almost reinventing ODI cricket.

Eoin Morgan’s England have blown away sides recently but buckled under tournament pressure.

But while Langer’s side was the first team to qualify for the semi-finals — and just two knockout wins away from a sixth trophy — England is on the cusp of extinction.

The grinding cricket in this tournament is reminding Ed Cowan of 1999, and he says Australia has nailed it.

“They’ve had the courage to do that. It’s a formula that works under pressure,” Cowan said.

They’ve also used all 15 players in their squad, with 11 of those polling votes in 3-2-1s conducted by the Herald Sun after every match.

Test great Nathan Lyon was the last to get a game, but bowled with control in his World Cup debut against England.

Nathan Lyon had to wait for his World Cup debut but is sure to feature again when required.

“He was a really good match up, particularly against England's three left handers,” Langer said.

“He particularly bowled well to (Jos) Buttler which is a great sign because there is no one more destructive in world cricket.”

The roles are quite easy to identify. The adaptable middle order bats with a mindset determined by the top three.

Glenn Maxwell judges himself on leaving Australia’s innings in a better position than when he walked to the crease.

When the top order makes runs, as it has been, Maxwell assesses his performance on strike-rate. An assessment he comfortably passes: Maxwell’s World Cup strike-rate of 187.9 is the greatest ever, streets ahead of Kieran Pollard (138.6) at No. 2 on the all time list.

Bangladesh believed Maxwell’s 10-ball 32 took the game away from them.

Fellow allrounder Marcus Stoinis still looks sore, although with a seven-day break you would back the powerful straight-hitter to come good.

“We can still be a little bit better through that 30-40-over period with the bat,” Finch said.

Glenn Maxwell is playing a floating role for Australia, making the side even more adaptable.

“But with the ball we’ve been really disciplined all throughout, which has been really pleasing.”

Legspinner Adam Zampa started as the No. 1 tweaker but has been overlooked in three of the past four games.

Finch said Zampa and Lyon were now “neck-and-neck” although they could yet play in tandem.

“The way Nathan bowled the other day is probably more of a defensive option,” Finch said.

Adam Zampa has been used sparingly as Australia has rotated its bowlers throughout.

“The numbers for Zamp (against) England, Nathan had a distinctive advantage. That's just the way we're looking at it. There's nothing more or nothing less to it.

“This is purely just matching up on opposition. It just comes down to looking deeper into the numbers.”

Langer’s message to his players as some drift in and out of the team?

“Will Smith used to say, ‘If you stay ready you ain’t gotta get ready,” Langer said.

“And I've thought that for 10 years — that's been a big motto for us.”

Originally published as Why Australia will win the World Cup with a ‘dated’ method that is anything but