Statistically Steve Smith is still improving - putting some all time records in his sights
Steve Smith is a batting wizard casting a spell over the sport. But where could the Best Since Bradman be by the end of his career if he continues his ridiculous run scoring? DETAILS INSIDE.
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Steve Smith is an unstoppable force who in the next three years can lift his average into the sort of areas only ever occupied by the incomparable Sir Donald Bradman.
After watching Smith bat England into submission in Manchester to help secure the Ashes for Australia, captain Tim Paine made one simple – but ominous – declaration about his star No.4.
“The scary thing is he’s getting better,” said Paine, who described Smith as a genius and ‘clearly the best player we’ve seen’.
“I don’t know where it is going to stop but we are enjoying being on the ride.”
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And former Australian all-rounder, turned Fox Cricket analyst, Andrew Symonds went one step further saying Smith simply ‘cannot be stopped’.
“Steve is so professional and so determined to be the best he can be,” Symonds told The Daily Telegraph.
“He may be slowed down at times, but I can’t see him being stopped. He’s just such a complete player.”
They’re remarkable statements about a player who plundered 774 runs from just four Tests in an extraordinary Test comeback.
But then again, we are talking about the man who is cementing his place as cricket’s best since Sir Donald Bradman – the iconic batsman, with the incomparable average of 99.94, against who all others are marked.
“I can only assume particularly (during the Ashes), it’s as close to what it must have been like being around when Bradman was playing,” Test great Adam Gilchrist told The Daily Telegraph.
“He’s just so far ahead of anyone else.”
Six weeks on, and with the help of some CricViz analysis, we can work out where Smith might end up based on his current ridiculous trajectory.
The 30-year-old’s average rose by a staggering 3.19 runs over four Ashes Tests, which most will accept is unsustainable even allowing for Smith’s obvious greatness – but it’s not unreasonable to believe he could soar into the 70s in the next three years.
For a fairer assessment, we can draw back to a year before his ban – a period in which his career average increased from 61.05 to 64.56.
Based on this trajectory/prediction of adding roughly 0.2 runs to his average each Test, Smith could – by 2022, according to CricViz – comfortably move his average to 71.16, where he’ll have only 99.94 to look up at.
While such predictions would appear fanciful for mere mortals, Smith has proven himself to be a cut above – especially so during his otherworldly Ashes feats.
“I would never bet against him because we’ve seen what he can do,” Michael Hussey explained.
“He is human and he can get out. So he might not be able to do what he did in England but you know he’s going to be bloody good.”
Another target in Smith’s sights could be the Australian record 13378 Test runs by Ricky Ponting – a target he’s some 6406 shy of currently.
Having averaged 1251 runs across four calendar years between 2014 and 2017, Smith will match or better Ponting’s haul if plays for another half decade at a similar level.
“It is something of a crude projection and one that assumes that Smith will be injury-free and maintain the stratospheric standards he’s set for himself,” explains CricViz’s Patrick Noone.
“But the sense during the Ashes was that, even at 30, Smith was still an improving player and was reaching heights not witnessed by anyone in living memory.
“If he can continue on anything close to that trajectory in the coming years, we could witness yet more records being broken by this remarkable batsman.”
So can he do it? Could the Best Since Bradman finish his career in the 70s, second on the all-time averages and behind only the greatest that ever lived?
“There’s no reason why he can’t,” Gilchrist said.
“If he can do that it’ll put to bed any discussion about whether he should be talked in and about the same sort of realms as Bradman and the game’s greatest.”
HOW SMITH STACKS UP AGAINST HIS CONTEMPORARIES
STEVE SMITH: 52 Tests. 6973 runs @ 64.56
VIRAT KOHLI: 83 Tests. 7066 runs @ 54.35
KANE WILLIAMSON: 74 Tests. 6163 runs @ 52.22
CHE PUJARA: 74 Tests. 5685 runs @ 49.43
JOE ROOT: 86 Tests. 7043 runs @ 47.91
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HASHIM AMLA: 124 Tests. 9282 runs @ 46.64*
ROSS TAYLOR: 94 Tests. 6839 runs @ 46.52
DAVE WARNER: 79 Tests. 6458 runs @ 45.47
ANGELO MATHEWS: 82 Tests. 5641 runs @ 44.41
HENRY NICHOLLS: 27 Tests. 1593 runs @ 44.25
*Amla retired from international cricket in August
**Minimum 20 Test innings
STEVE SMITH’S RECORD, YEAR ON YEAR
2010: 4 Tests. 187 runs @ 23.38. High score: 77. No centuries
2011: 1 Test. 72 runs @ 72. HS: 45 not out. No centuries.
2013: 11 Tests. 711 runs @ 27.42. HS: 138no. 2 centuries
2014: 9 Tests. 1146 runs @ 81.86. HS: 192. 5 centuries
2015: 13 Tests. 1474 runs @ 73.70. HS: 215. 6 centuries
2016: 11 Tests. 1079 runs @ 71.93. HS: 165no. 4 centuries
2017: 11 Tests. 1305 runs @ 76.76. HS: 239. 6 centuries
2018: 4 Tests. 225 runs @ 32.14. HS: 83. 0 centuries.** The start of his 12-month Sandpapergate ban.
2019: 4 Tests. 774 runs @ 110.57. HS: 211. 3 centuries**** so far....
Originally published as Statistically Steve Smith is still improving - putting some all time records in his sights
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