KFC SuperCoach BBL: Stats man Brice Mitchell’s guide to the under and overpriced players in BBL11
Picking 16 gun players in a $2 million salary cap requires some tough choices. KFC SuperCoach stats man Brice Mitchell reveals all the key numbers you need to know.
SuperCoach BBL
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperCoach BBL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Value doesn’t only mean cheaper players in KFC SuperCoach.
Of course, finding the right cash cows is crucial to finishing at the pointy end of the KFC SuperCoach rankings.
Value can come in many forms though.
It might be a proven star who struggled last season and is priced well below their true worth.
Or a player whose average last season was hampered by factors outside their control — weather, injury etc.
Some of the best value picks in KFC SuperCoach this summer cost more than $150k, yet are still considerably lower than their talent and scoring history would suggest.
SCROLL DOWN TO SEE BRICE MITCHELL’S FULL BREAKDOWN OF ALL THE KEY KFC SUPERCOACH STATS!
At the opposite end of the scale, some breakout stars performed well in 5-6 games and have a vastly inflated price to start BBL11 as a result.
Stats guru Brice Mitchell has identified the 11 overpriced players you should avoid and the 11 underpriced players to target in his latest KFC SuperCoach special.
See the full lists below.
BIGGEST PRICE RISES (BBL10 TO BBL11)
1 Marnus Labuschagne 88 (6g) $64k->$247.9k ($184k)
•Labuschange announced himself as a true KFC SuperCoach premium in BBL10, featuring with the bat and ball in almost every game to finish the season with an average of 88.2 over six games.
•But as the highest priced player in the game, it’s difficult to see him maintaining this average in BBL11, especially since he’ll be spending most of the summer scoring runs against England in the Ashes.
2 Zak Evans 58 (5g) $42k->$164.2k ($122k)
•Evans had a huge finish to BBL10 which included scores of 83 and 138 in the last two rounds for the Renegades. This boosted his average for BBL10 to 58.4 and also his BBL11 starting price.
•Although Evans did receive a 10 per cent discount as he only played five games, it’s difficult to see him replicating a similar average in BBL11, so he is probably about $30k overpriced.
3 Brendan Doggett 63 (5g) $63k->$176k ($114k)
•Although there is no doubt that Doggett is an up-and-coming talent, his BBL10 average was based on a small sample size of six games where he averaged 62.6. Previous averages of 46 and 20 in BBL08 and BBL09 suggest that his BBL10 average could be above his standard output.
•Even though he received a 10 per cent discount on his BBL10 average due to only playing six games, he’s still priced at an average of 56.4 which is 15 points beyond his career average of 40 and he’s therefore $50k overpriced.
4 Liam Hatcher 45 (9g) $42k->$141.6k ($100k)
•Hatcher had a breakout year for the Stars as a rookie priced player in BBL10.
•While its possible that he maintains this average in BBL11, there are plenty of comparable options that have greater job security.
5 Peter Hatzoglou 42 (12g) $42k->$131k ($89k)
•Peter rose to fame and cult figure status for the struggling Renegades in BBL10 as a replacement player for Will Sutherland, playing 12 games in his rookie year.
•He started at basement price ($42k) in BBL10, but is fully priced in BBL11 based on his average at $131k.
•In BBL11, he’ll line up for the Scorchers, and will take on Fawad Ahmad’s role as the front line spinner.
•But given the amount of good bowling options, and all-rounders (Marsh, Agar, Hardie), he’s overpriced compared to his Scorchers teammates who are at the same price (Tye, Dorf, Marsh) or lower (Kelly, Agar, Hardie)
6 Moises Henriques 55 (5g) $100k->$171.8k ($71k)
•I almost fell off my chair when I saw Moises’ price for BBL11! Unfortunately for KFC Supercoaches, Henriques finished the BBL10 season in style, averaging 55 across 5 games to lead the Sixers to the BBL10 title.
•Moises hasn’t bowled in the BBL for a few years and relies purely on his batting and fielding points to generate his SuperCoach score. This has resulted in averages of 35 in the previous two seasons (BBL08, BBL09), which is probably what we should expect in BBL11 based on his role at No. 4 in the Sixers line-up.
•An average of 35 in BBL11 would make Moises $60k overpriced.
7 Daniel Worrall 51 (10g) $92k->$160k ($68k)
•Worrall enjoyed his return to South Australia to play for the Strikers in BBL10 where he averaged 51.2, which was almost 20 points better than his last full season at the Stars in BBL09.
•His BBL10 average was boosted by a rare batting innings in Round 2 where he scored 62 runs off 39 balls, resulting in 92 points.
•If you remove this outlier from his average, his seasonal average is closer to 40, which makes him $30k overpriced in BBL11.
•Ben McDermott 52 (12g) $90k->$163.2k ($74k)
•McDermott was one of the top three averaging wicketkeepers in BBL10 and while this was his most consistent BBL season, his average of 52 across 12 games was around 10 points beyond his career average.
•With Wade and Short expected to open for the Hurricanes all season, he won’t get the same opportunities at the top, nor will he get the gloves.
•If he returns an average of 40, he is $40k overpriced.
9 Mujeeb Ur Rahman 67 (8g) $116k->$208.2k ($92k)
•BBL10 was a standout for Ur Rahman and he continues to emerge as one of the world’s best spinners. In his first two seasons at the Heat, he returned averages of 55 and 40, while in BBL10 he averaged 66.6 across eight games.
•His BBL10 average was boosted by scores of 60, 82, 102 and 158, and balanced by his floor of 21, 34, 37 and 39.
•At his price, you’ll need an average of around 66 to get a return on your $208k investment. If he averaged 55, he would be $35k overpriced. But sometimes you have got to pay overs when a star like Ur Rahman is on a double, as he is in Round 1.
10 Jordan Silk 42 (16g) $63k->$130.2k ($68k)
• KFCs SuperCoach is all about role, and batting at No. 5 as Silk does relies too much on needing the game situation to go in your favour. Silk had a great year in BBL10, but there’s a reason why he has only returned averages of 12, 30 and 18 for BBL06, BBL08, and BL09.
•While Silk is renowned for fielding points, his expected average is probably closer to 30, making him $35 overpriced.
11 Dan Christian 59 (16g) $105k->$184.7k ($80k)
•DC was bargain in BBL10 and ended up having a KFC SuperCoach friendly role for most the season where he managed to average 59.1, which is in line with his career average.
•This means he is probably fairly-priced, but depending on the bowling options at the Sixers at various stages in the season, he may not always get a bowling-friending role. Which makes him an expensive option batting at No. 6, and possibly bowling only 0-2 overs.
•With a few missing players for Round 1, he could be an appealing option for the Sixers’ opening double.
UNDER-PRICED
Usman Khawaja, BBL10 average 30, 15 games, $93.3k
• In earlier BBL seasons (BBL02-BBL08), Khawaja was a dominant batsman while balancing his Australian representative duties. He had a batting average of at least 40, which peaked at 172 in BBL05, and a strike rate ranging from 118 up to 163 in BBL05.
• In the last couple of years (BBL09, BBL10), Khawaja has struggled to score consistently despite playing every game. He only managed a batting average of 23 (BBL09) and 24 (BBL10) at a strike rate of around 125, which equated to a KFC SuperCoach average of just 30 (BBL09) and 32 (BBL10).
• If he can capture some of that early career form, he is definitely well underpriced.
• His recent selection in the Ashes squad means he won’t be available early in the season, but he’s one to watch if he becomes available for BBL.
Matthew Kelly, BBL10 average N/A, 0 games, $101k
• Kelly didn’t play in BBL10, but has been a semi-regular member of the Scorchers bowling attack when the big guns have been missing.
• Given an opportunity, Kelly is a wicket-taker with 27 wickets over 21 games across his BBL career.
• In his first season, he took a wicket in every one of his five games, and maintains a strike rate of 16.5 (balls per wicket) across his BBL career, which is comparable with his wicket taking teammates (15.3 Andrew Tye, 16.7 Jhye Richardson, 18.1 Jason Behrendorff).
• Depending on injuries and Australian duties for other key bowlers at the Scorchers (Jhye Richardson), he could be a bargain buy.
Mitch Marsh, BBL10 average 42, 15 games, $133k
• Last season, Marsh bowled in only four of 15 games, which restricted his average across the season to only 42.5.
• In games where he bowled, he averaged 33 KFC SuperCoach points from his bowling in BBL10. Projecting that bowling KFC SuperCoach average across the season, his average would be closer to 65, which would put his starting price closer to $200k.
• Given he’s expected to bowl in BBL11, and has taken his batting game to another level this year, he’s a bargain priced all-rounder who can go big with bat and ball and is potentially $70k underpriced.
Ashton Agar, BBL10 average N/A, games 0, $89.7k
• Injury kept Agar out of the entire BBL10 season. This means he comes with a discount based on his average from BBL09 (35.9), which is well under his career average and capability.
• In BBL06 and BBL08, Agar averaged around 45. In his standout season in BBL07, he averaged over 70.
• It would be optimistic to think he can return to his BBL07 average. But if he can deliver some of the form he showed while playing for Australia over the last 12 months and return an average close to 45 (equivalent to $140k), he’s around $50k underpriced.
• His early season DGW and DPP make him difficult to pass on. He was my first picked for BBL11! But he will be involved in Australia A duties in at least the first two KFC SuperCoach rounds.
D’Arcy Short, BBL10 average 58, 14 games, $179.6k
• D’Arcy Short hasn’t started a KFC SuperCoach season under $200k since BBL06. He’s one of the best premiums ever in BBL and is available at a juicy price of $179.6k. Not only is he a topscoring opening batsman, but his bowling has continued to improve. He’s underpriced based on his historical scoring and capability.
• Short had his best KFC SuperCoach season in 2018-19 (BBL08), where he averaged 91.3, including 62.3 with the bat and 25.7 with the ball.
• Contrast this with BBL10, where his KFC SuperCoach bowling (21.4) almost matched his batting (29.6).
• If Short can match his bowling from BBL10, and boost his batting to what we expect from his career average (approx 45), his price would be around $220k, which makes him $40k underpriced.
Sandeep Lamichhane, BBL10 average 33, 8 games, $103.5k
• Lamichhane burst onto the scene for the Stars in BBL08 as a little-known rookie priced international player from Nepal. He took the BBL by storm, and quickly rocketed to $150k in four rounds, making him one of the cash cows of the year, averaging 61 in eight games.
• While he hasn’t reached those heights since his rookie year, in BBL09 and BBL10 he returned averages of 48 (for the Stars) and 33 (for the Hurricanes) respectively.
• This year, he’ll be playing from Round 1. An average of 48 would make him around $50k underpriced.
Marcus Stoinis, BBL10 average 52, 13 games, $163k
• Will Marcus Stoinis be fit to bowl at the start of BBL, and throughout? That is one of the biggest questions facing KFC SuperCoaches this season.
• He’s only bowled in five of the last 30 games across the last two seasons, but has still managed to average 52.2 and 64.9, based largely on his batting at the top of the order.
• You don’t have to look too far back to see that Stoinis averaged 96.9 in BBL08.
• If he’s bowling, you simply have to pick him at $163.2k with a DGW in Round 3. This is the cheapest Stoinis has been since BBL06.
• When firing at the top of the order, and taking wickets, Stoinis is the biggest KFC SuperCoach beast in the game.
• If he can replicate BBL08 form with the bat and bowl, he’s about $140k underpriced.
Matthew Wade, BBL10 average 47, 3 games, $145.8k
• Wade has averaged around 60 in KFC SuperCoach in recent seasons, but had a lower average in BBL10 of 46.7, which has kept his price at an affordable level in BBL11.
• If he can average 60 (which could be optimistic), that would make him $40k underpriced.
• Like others with slight value, he doesn’t have a DGW immediately, so might be a wait and see.
Aaron Finch, BBL10 average 18, 13 games, $62.5k
• Stating the obvious first up, Finch had a BBL10 to forget where he averaged 17.6 KFC SuperCoach points across 13 games.
• What this means is that you can select an international opening batsman — the Australian T20 World championship winning skipper — at a rookie price of $62.5k!
• If Finch can return to his KFC SuperCoach averages of BBL06 (86.9), BBL08 (41.4) and BBL09 (64.4), he’s at least $65k underpriced.
Matthew Renshaw, BBL10 average 22, 14 games, $67.4k
• Renshaw averaged around 47 KFC SuperCoach points in his last two seasons with the Heat (BBL08 and BBL09) but wasn’t able to capture the same form in his first year at the Strikers in BBL10.
• In BBL11, Renshaw is almost rookie priced based on his KFC SuperCoach average of 22 from BBL10, which makes him $80k underpriced based on past performances.
• Although he’s been selected in the Australia A side, he should still get plenty of opportunities early in the season with Travis Head involved in the Test squad.
Joel Paris, BBL10 average 1, 1 game, $63k
• This is a pick based purely on potential and pre-season form.
• Paris has either been starved of opportunities at the Scorchers or been injured, so hasn’t really had a good crack at BBL.
• If he can return on potential and stay uninjured, and average around 40-50, he’s $60-90k underpriced. That’s a big IF though as he’s 50/50 to start Round 1.
Kane Richardson, BBL10 average 49, 11 games, $152k
• Richardson is slightly underpriced based on his career KFC SuperCoach average (50+), but doesn’t have a DGW until much later in the season, so is difficult to select ahead of others who represent better value.
Cameron Boyce, BBL10 average N/A, 0 games, $106k
• Boyce is a forgotten name in the BBL after he missed the entire BBL10 season. It means he gets a 10 per cent discount in KFC SuperCoach based on his average from BBL09 (42.4)
• The $106k price tag makes his priced at an average of 34, which isn’t far off his averages from BBL06 (33.1) and BBL07 (32.2).
• If he can replicate his output from BBL08 (59.4) and BBL09 (42.4), he’s between $25k-$80k under priced.
STATS BIBLE: KEY NUMBERS FOR KFC SUPERCOACH BBL
Brice Mitchell has built a reputation as one of the most knowledgeable maths brains in the KFC SuperCoach community.
This summer, he finally joins our official KFC SuperCoach team to help BBL SuperCoaches identify the key stats to help their teams.
Follow this guide, and you’ll be well on your way to creating and then supercharging your KFC SuperCoach team during BBL11.
Runs, wickets, strike rates, bowling economy rates and fielding statistics are the key cricket stats to target when deciding on players for your KFC SuperCoach team.
But there’s also some KFC SuperCoach-specific stats and terminology you need to be aware of, such as break evens and double game rounds.
Firstly, it’s important to reflect on last season.
Here’s a breakdown of how KFC SuperCoach points were scored in BBL10:
- 45 per cent of points for batting
- 43 per cent of points for bowling
- 12 per cent of points for fielding
BATTING STATS
In simple terms, more runs at a faster rate equal big KFC SuperCoach points.
You’ll get a KFC SuperCoach point for each run. The more runs, the better!
But if you reach the magical milestones of 20, 50 or 100, you’ll unlock even more KFC SuperCoach points
At the first milestone (20 runs) the SR bonus kicks in:
Make a quick 20 runs off 10 balls, and that’s 45 KFC SuperCoach points — the ultimate return from your opening batsman or middle order finisher!
In BBL10, the players who accumulated the most strike rate bonus points were Josh Philippe (185), Alex Hales (180), Ben Cutting (170), Chris Lynn (160), and Tim David (150).
And you’ll get a bonus 10 points each 50 you make in the same innings. Alex Hales, Chris Lynn, Alex Carey, James Vince and Colin Munro reached that milestone in more innings than any other players in BBL10.
Last season, runs contributed towards 76 per cent of batting points, 20 per cent was awarded in SR bonuses, and only 4 per cent was for 50s or 100s.
BOWLING STATS
Everyone loves a wicket celebration.
And you have good reason to celebrate in KFC SuperCoach too, as they are worth 20 points. Even better if it’s a caught and bowled, as you’ll get 10 points for a catch too!
In BBL10, wickets contributed towards 63 per cent of all bowling points.
If you get a bag of three wickets, you’ll get a wicket bonus of 10 points.
In BBL10, 36 players got at least one wicket bonus, only two players achieved five bags of 3+ wickets last year — Jhye Richardson and Ben Dwarshuis.
Dot balls are only worth one KFC SuperCoach point, but they certainly add up, contributing to 20 per cent of all bowling points in BBL10.
So who should we be targeting?
In BBL10, Scott Boland, Jhye Richardson and Jason Behrendorff were the leaders for dot balls across the season, but Daniel Worrall, Adam Milne, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Brendan Doggett and Rashid Khan averaged nine or more dots a game.
Economy rates contributed to 15 per cent of bowling points and are the ultimate reward for a stingy spell in T20 cricket.
The key to getting a consistent ER bonus is not only being economical, but also meeting the minimum criteria of at least three overs.
Ur Rahman, Doggett, Mitch Swepson, Arjun Nair, Imad Wasim and Adam Zampa were among those most likely to benefit from KFC SuperCoach’s economy bonus last season.
Maidens are an extremely rare event in T20 cricket and only contributed towards 1 per cent of bowling points in BBL10.
Nail it, and it’s big points though.
You get 15 points for the maiden, six points for dot balls and become a great chance for maximum economy rate bonus and wickets as pressure builds.
In BBL10, Heat quick Xavier Bartlett was the only player to achieve this twice.
Extras are the stat you want to avoid in KFC SuperCoach.
Wides and no balls will not only cost you -1 points, but they will add to your runs against and make it less likely of picking up the ER bonus.
Stars paceman Liam Hatcher finished with the unwanted record of the most extras across BBL10 with 18 extras in nine games.
FIELDING STATS
Other stats that contribute to your KFC SuperCoach score include players that are involved in wickets in the field through catches, stumpings and run outs.
They say catches win matches!
Well, the same could be said about catches in KFC SuperCoach as they are worth 10 points and they contributed to 85 per cent of all fielding points awarded in BBL10.
Despite run outs and stumpings being worth 20 and 15 points respectively, these events are rare and only contributed to 15 per cent and 3 per cent of the fielding points overall respectively.
Wicket keepers (Alex Carey, John Philippe, Josh Inglis) and fielders in dangerous catching positions (Glenn Maxwell, Ashton Agar, Jordan Silk, Dan Christian) can add vital points to your total though, something worth considering if you’re torn between two trade targets.
OTHER KEY KFC SUPERCOACH TERMS
Break evens (commonly referred to as BE)
You’ll hear this term mentioned a lot in KFC SuperCoach content, in both NRL and AFL formats as well as BBL.
It is a term which has become central to the strategy in KFC SuperCoach
Those that aren’t familiar with the term might ask, what does it mean?
A player’s break even is the number which determines whether their price goes up or down.
TAKE THIS EXAMPLE:
Mitch Marsh’s BE is 42 for Round 1.
If he scores above 42 in Round 1, his price goes up.
If he scores below 42 in Round 1, his price goes down.
If he scores 42, he will maintain his price.
Trading in players with low BEs (BEs that are lower than their expected score or average) is one way to generate team value.
Likewise, trading out players that have high BEs is a way to avoid price drops and losing team value.
It’s what we refer to as “playing the BEs”.
DOUBLE GAME ROUNDS
This is pretty straightforward, but crucial to the strategy in KFC SuperCoach BBL.
Targeting players that have two games in a round (a double game round/week = DGR) is the best way to lift your KFC SuperCoach score each round, as scores from both games count towards your total.
But don’t get trapped, as there are some rounds where teams don’t play (a bye round).
You don’t want to get stuck with too many players from one team for this reason.
And, just because a player has a DGR, it doesn’t make them a good selection.
Check out the other stats in this article to help you select the best players for your team.
And when you’re done, take a look at my basic fixture planner.
#BBL11 Fixture Analysis for #supercoach BBL
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 14, 2021
*#BBLSupercoach has yet to announce the Round structure for BBL11. This analysis is based on an assumed Round structure. https://t.co/1HHetnFdTdpic.twitter.com/L6MKui25xt
CAPTAINCY TIPS
Nailing your captain is another critical part of playing KFC SuperCoach BBL.
Each round, you select a vice-captain and captain. You’ll get double points for your captain.
Simple right?
The vice-captaincy loophole which applies in AFLSC and NRLSC is even more valuable in BBLSC due to the volatile nature of scores.
Select a VC that plays early in the round.
Then, if they score well, whack the C on a non-playing player to double your VC score.
KFC SuperCoach is now on YouTube! Watch and subscribe here
More Coverage
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach BBL: Stats man Brice Mitchell’s guide to the under and overpriced players in BBL11
‘Best people’: Former Test captain in shock new role
Three years after he was forced to quit the Australian captaincy, Tim Paine is back in a key cricket role.
Heat unveils teen quick as latest signing
One of Australia’s most promising young fast bowlers has signed a deal with BBL champions Brisbane Heat.