NBL road to the playoffs: Every team’s path to finals basketball
Finals are only a handful of games away, and MATT LOGUE and MICHAEL RANDALL preview each club’s run home.
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Sydney’s season and championship defence hangs in the balance with one round remaining, as Kings’ officials remain tight-lipped on a potential coaching change.
The Kings sit in seventh position and need to beat the South East Melbourne Phoenix on Saturday night to put themselves in the mix for a top-six finish.
It’s a delicate precedent that’s placed significant pressure on under-fire coach Mahmoud Abdelfattah, who has struggled in his first season in charge.
Under Abdelfattah’s reign, Sydney’s defensive standards have significantly dropped, leaving the defending champions in a vulnerable position to qualify for the finals.
Code Sports contacted the Kings for comment about the prospect of a coaching change on Monday, with a spokesperson saying: “No immediate plans given we are still in the running for a Play-In spot.”
It’s a stance that was backed up by Sydney co-owner and the club’s former marquee signing Andrew Bogut.
“We are currently focused on South East Melbourne and seeing where that lands us in the Play-In tournament,” Bogut said.
The Kings possess a stronger differential than New Zealand (sixth) and Brisbane (fifth), but they face a nervous final round, especially if the Breakers manage to win their final two games against Brisbane (H) and Adelaide (A).
1: MELBOURNE UNITED (19 wins, 7 losses)
Run home: Taipans (A), Hawks (H)
Prediction: First.
Melbourne has top position locked in, regardless of the final round results. United could rest players, but they should beat the Taipans in Cairns. The Hawks to finish will be a real challenge, but they’re at home and we’re tipping them to win.
2: PERTH WILDCATS (17 wins, 9 losses)
Run home: Hawks (A), JackJumpers (A)
Prediction: Second.
Perth’s run home isn’t easy, but it could serve as the perfect preparation for the finals. Two away games against Illawarra and Tasmania is a real test, but the Wildcats are well prepared for success. Perth will want to win – or at least play well – to head into the finals with confidence.
3: TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS (15 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Wildcats (H),
Prediction: Third.
Tasmania will finish third regardless. The JackJumpers host Perth in the final round – and while it won’t be easy – they will be hard to beat at home.
4: ILLAWARRA HAWKS (13 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Wildcats (H), United (A)
Prediction: Fourth
It’s a hard run home for Illawarra, but the Hawks are in form and anything is possible. The ideal scenario for the men from Wollongong is Brisbane losing on the road to New Zealand, which would hand them fourth position.
5: BRISBANE BULLETS (13 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Breakers (A)
Prediction: Seventh.
Brisbane have been brilliant this season under first-year coach Justin Schueller, but we’re expecting them to miss out on the finals. The Bullets will struggle to beat the Breakers in New Zealand, while Sydney should beat the under-strength Phoenix.
6: NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS (12 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Bullets (H), 36ers (A)
Prediction: Fifth.
The Breakers can beat Brisbane and Adelaide to finish on 14 wins, which would see them finish in fifth.
7: SYDNEY KINGS (12 wins, 15 losses)
Run home: Phoenix (A)
Prediction: Sixth.
It’s been a disappointing season for the defending NBL champions, but they should defeat the last-placed Phoenix to make the top-six, even if the Breakers win both their final-round games.
8: CAIRNS TAIPANS (11 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: United (H)
Prediction: Eighth.
Cairns just need NBL24 to finish now. They’ll turn up and do their best against the championship favourites in Melbourne, but United should be too strong.
9: ADELAIDE 36ERS (11 wins 16 losses)
Run home: Breakers (H)
Prediction: Ninth.
Adelaide’s impressive run to a potential finals berth has been cut short, but they will be desperate to win their final home game against New Zealand.
The Breakers will have more to play for – and should win as a result.
10: SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX (10 wins, 17 losses)
Run home: Kings (H)
Prediction: Tenth.
It’s all about pride and preparing for NBL25 now for South East Melbourne.
The Phoenix have one home game left to give their fans some hope for the future.
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Originally published as NBL road to the playoffs: Every team’s path to finals basketball
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