Do the odds like Denver to strike back in Miami? Heat vs Nuggets NBA Finals Game 3 betting tips, odds, picks and predictions

Game 3 of the NBA Finals hits on Thursday morning: do the odds like Miami to roll at home, or Denver to regain the ascendancy?

Jaymz Clements

@jaymzclements

5 min read

June 6, 2023 - 5:52PM

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After Miami pulled off a stunning Game 2 victory in Denver, the NBA Finals are all tied up at 1-1 heading back to South Beach in Florida. Can Jimmy Butler’s feisty Miami team take advantage of home court, or will Nikola Jokic and his Denver Nuggets wrest back control of the series?

MIAMI HEAT: $2.18 (via TopSport)

DENVER NUGGETS: $1.74 (via bet365)

Kaseya Center, Miami Thursday 10.40am

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The set up for Game 3 of the NBA Finals is tastier than one of Grandma’s apple pies (and few things top Mary’s apple pies) with the Miami Heat having ripped off a massive upset Game 2 win in Denver, and now Jimmy Butler and co. head home with a series lead firmly in their sights.

Also taking its talents to South Beach will be a Nuggets squad that first pulled off a massive 20+ point turnaround early to lead by 15, but saw its defence fall apart in the fourth quarter of Game 2, surrendering 36 points and an 8-point lead as its offence was tripped up by the Heat’s zone and some lost composure when it came to officiating.

But mostly it was a spaced-out Denver defence being taken advantage of by noted Jimmy Neutron look-alike Duncan Robinson (s/o NBA Straya) ripping off 10 points out of nowhere at the start of the fourth quarter and flexing on the Nuggets.

So what does that all mean for Game 3 and what could it have in store for folks?

Well, considering the Heat are bucking all trends, it’s increasingly tough to tell.

Game 3’s over-under will hinge on if Denver can fire up its ‘whirring death machine’ offence, which has averaged 115.2 points a game in the playoffs.

Only one of Denver’s seven road games this post-season has gone under Game 3’s total points line of 216.5.

Compare that to how five of Miami’s eight home playoff games have fallen short of that mark

Still, five of the last six games between the two have hit the over - Game 1 was the exception - while the over has hit in the past three games Denver have played on the road following a loss.

But with both Game 1 hitting the under and Game 2 tracking to go close (83-75 after 3Qs) until Miami decided to start the quarter shooting 9-10 from the field on the way to scoring those 36 points, there’s a good case for the defences learning from those two games and tightening the screws for the under.

TOTAL POINTS - UNDER 216.5 $1.76 (via Betr)

Aaron Gordon of the Denver Nuggets defends against Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat. Picture: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Miami also won Game 2 despite not getting a massive Jimmy Butler game (21 points on 7-of-19 shooting and nine assists) and with Butler dealing with some offcourt private matters, it will be interesting to see what we get in Game 3.

While Butler has only gone above 25 points once and is averaging 20 points per outing in the past five games, since the start of the ECF his assists – 6.5 per game and none below five – and rebounds (7.1 per game and only dipping below five rebounds once, in Game 2 of the Finals) have stayed steady.

No matter what’s going on, Jimmy Butler will give it his all at home where he’s averaged 26 points a game during these playoffs and went for 24 and 29 points in his last two. If Miami are to win Game 3, it’ll be because his points, rebounds and assists markets hit overs.

Jimmy Butler - 40+ points, rebounds and assist: $1.94 (via Betr)

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets looks to pass defended by Caleb Martin #16 and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat during Game Two of the 2023 NBA Finals. Picture: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

With 41 points in Game 2 (on a ridiculous 16-28 shooting), Nikola Jokic had his highest scoring output since his 53 points in a second-round loss to the Suns, but after Miami closed off his passing lanes and made Joker look for his own shot more, the big Serb will be looking to create more for his teammates in Game 3.

Jokic’s four assists in Game 2 was his lowest number all playoffs, and after going for 12 or more in six of his last eight games and averaging over 10 per game for the entire postseason, the Joker will likely get the rest of his Nuggets involved in a big way.

The Joker has also gone for 50+ points, rebounds and assists combined in 10 of his last 11 games.

Nikola Jokic - 12+ assists: $2.63 (via Betr)
Nikola Jokic - Over 50.5+ Points, Rebounds, Assists: $1.86 (via bet365)

A lot of the troubles Denver found themselves in during Game 2 also stemmed from Michael Porter Jr’s inability to hit a shot (3-17 from 3 for the series) and lackadaisical, spacey defence: after 43 minutes in Game 1, Denver coach Michael Malone only played MPJ 26 mins in Game 2 and basically called out his effort following the loss.

A big part of MPJ’s game these playoffs has been his rebounding and commitment to defence, which have fed his confidence on offence: both slacked off in Game 2, but after hitting over 10 rebounds in four of his previous five games a more engaged MPJ on the glass will likely mean a more engaged MPJ on offence too.

A 41.4% 3PT shooter this season, if MPJ can stay on the court, the chances of his shot returning (he shot 14/33 - 42.4% - in the WCF) are pretty good.

Michael Porter Jr - 8+ rebounds: $2.05 (via betr, bet365)
Michael Porter Jr - 3+ threes: $1.86 (via bet365)

Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat drives to the basket against Aaron Gordon of the Denver Nuggets during Game Two of the 2023 NBA Finals. Picture: Mark J. Terrill/Getty Images

The biggest reason Miami won Game 2 might have been Bam Adebayo facilitating the Heat offence: not only did the big man score 21 points on 8-14 shooting, but he also snagged 9 rebounds and 4 assists.

After 26-13-5 in Game 1 and Denver’s defensive coverage not likely to change too much to a drop scheme to pay him more attention, he should have another solid outing.

Bam Adebayo - 35+ Points, Rebounds, Assists: $2.30 (via Betr)

WHO WINS?

Following the undoing of its defence in the fourth quarter of Game 2, the result of Game 3 will hinge on how Denver play Miami’s shooters.

After going at 49% from 3 in Game 2, the Heat are on pace to post the record for the most playoff games at shooting over 45% from downtown.

It feels incredible considering that Miami was the 27th-ranked team in the NBA for 3PT accuracy all regular season at 34.4%.

But even if it would be historic, we’ve seen Miami sustain this sort of shooting for entire playoff series before – they just did it against Milwaukee in the first round and then Boston in the ECF – but Denver should have the perimeter size to at least keep its coverages and switches sharper and more on point.

Plus, buried in the ‘Miami hitting absolutely everything in the 4th’ hype is that Denver’s shooting went MIA at the very worst time. They still posted a 124.1 offensive rating, despite Porter Jr, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jamal Murray shooting a combined 5-17 from three, so Denver’s offensive upside remains achievable, as long as they can navigate the Heat’s defence.

There’s also the fact that as a home team Miami is only 21-27-3 against the line (25th in the NBA).

Denver might not be a dominant road team (23-25 head-to-head and against the line), but the Joker and co won its last three games on the road: two in LA and the series close out in Phoenix.

Look for a big response in Game 3 as the Nuggets try to regain the ascendancy.

THE PICK: Denver -2: $1.90 (via Ladbrokes)